JMJ Farms
Well-known member
Nothing takes the place of good decision making. But on any successful venture, there is a little luck involved! But you can do a lot to "create" your luck.
JWBrahman":3fej16rz said:Nobody was in the least bit interested when a bunch of us said to sell out and buy back in 2 years later. I know that is exactly what Caustic and I were telling people when it got really crazy.
Where are all the posters who used to ridicule us when talking about being able to make money when live prices were $0.80-$1.00 and feeders are $1.20?
Bigfoot":64y56jl3 said:JWBrahman":64y56jl3 said:Nobody was in the least bit interested when a bunch of us said to sell out and buy back in 2 years later. I know that is exactly what Caustic and I were telling people when it got really crazy.
Where are all the posters who used to ridicule us when talking about being able to make money when live prices were $0.80-$1.00 and feeders are $1.20?
I was with ya, but I couldnt justify selling out my cow herd. It took too long to build.
At the very top of the market, a group of large purebred guys and investor types flew my dad and few others, some of whom are good sized operators who some on here know or have heard of, to a meeting wanting them to put up a bunch of money and take equity stakes in a 50,000 head feedlot they wanted to build in Northern Nebraska along with making inventory guarantees.Cross-7":204u4ky0 said:Good post Gizmom
I think you hit the nail on the head on the part about them building a feed lot at peak calf prices
Bigfoot":tjui8j5g said:JWBrahman":tjui8j5g said:Nobody was in the least bit interested when a bunch of us said to sell out and buy back in 2 years later. I know that is exactly what Caustic and I were telling people when it got really crazy.
Where are all the posters who used to ridicule us when talking about being able to make money when live prices were $0.80-$1.00 and feeders are $1.20?
I was with ya, but I couldnt justify selling out my cow herd. It took too long to build.
True Grit Farms":2phejfw1 said:I was with ya, but I couldnt justify selling out my cow herd. It took too long to build.
Nesi those extremely high prices spoiled a lot of people and now that things are coming back to more normal levels they feel like the world has gone to he// in handbasket. Anybody that bought in thinking those high prices were going to become the norm was a bit stupid.Nesikep":ios31ik5 said:It depends on what you're trying to do with your cowherd.. If you're looking to make genetic progress, then selling out goes against that.
I wouldn't say these people *deserved* this.. but it was to be *expected*.. Yes, they had some serious accidents and problems that really didn't help, and I'm sorry that it happened to them.
But prices aren't THAT low.. they weren't in it for as many "ups and downs" as they'd like to proclaim.. I think if anyone knows what recent bad prices are, Aaron and Bez have been through some of the worst of it.. In about 2005 here I got $.80/lb for nice 5wt heifers, steers were $.85-90... they're still double that here at least, so while I'm certainly not going to make the money I did last year ($3.75/lb for a 385 lb dink or $1440), things could still get a whole lot worse.
My view of it is 'steady as she goes'.. Keep the cows you can have, save the money you can, keep a tight grip on the expenses, take the good deals while they're available.. Buying and selling with the market is just another way to chase a fad. I was lucky I sold my calves and cull cows at the perfect time last year.. it was dumb luck.. Lost my shirt on a couple calves I kept over though because they were really young
When they start paying your way to look at their plan better always run like he// the other direction.js1234":2b31k3jy said:At the very top of the market, a group of large purebred guys and investor types flew my dad and few others, some of whom are good sized operators who some on here know or have heard of, to a meeting wanting them to put up a bunch of money and take equity stakes in a 50,000 head feedlot they wanted to build in Northern Nebraska along with making inventory guarantees.Cross-7":2b31k3jy said:Good post Gizmom
I think you hit the nail on the head on the part about them building a feed lot at peak calf prices
I was not at the 2 day presentation but my dad tells me these banker and purebred types were dumbfounded when he and his fellow "ignorant ranchers" passed to a man. Their logic was; "Hey, you guys run lots of yearlings and feed lots of cattle or own feed yards already, why wouldn't you want to put up money and commit inventory to us, we will use the latest ideas and innovations and do it even better than these yards that have been staying in business for decades doing the same boring stuff".
Funny thing about real life, at the top of the market, profit is not near as bulletproof as many think and when things get tough, there is waaaaay more opportunity than many of the chicken littles who love to pronounce the cattle business dead can comprehend.
In my little story, I'm not sure who did or didn't have earrings.
JWBrahman":2962rpwy said:Bigfoot":2962rpwy said:I watched the video, but didn't read the article. The guy had an ear ring, and was talking about he bought cattle and leased land. 2 + 2 = He had no idea what he was doing.
So he obviously deserves hard times, right? Because he has an earring, bought cattle, and leased land?
I am with TT on this and get no joy from the suffering of others. If so much of our economy wasn't locked up by the big boys this story could have had a happy ending. Every last cattleman on this site is in for a rough patch. I hope others have more of God's mercy in their hearts if you ever need assistance.