kenny thomas
Well-known member
July 2011 corn at 6.95 and beans at 14.56. Is $7 and $15 possible and what will passing these points do to cattle prices?
$7 corn and $15 soybeans?
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upfrombottom
Well-known member
I think low supply of cattle will drive the price for the next several years, maybe more. As with any production method if the input cost start getting out of hand, alternative sources are found. It will take longer to finish cattle on alternative methods and it may well hold the supply of cattle down even more in the short term, causing prices to increase more for beef. My :2cents:
larryshoat
Well-known member
I don't know, I never did think I knew much, with what's been going on lately I'm thinking I know even less :bang: :dunce: .
Larry
Larry
Kingfisher
Well-known member
What do you think they are planning to do with all those soybeans?kenny thomas":63rjd058 said:
TexasBred
Well-known member
larryshoat":6m5wtjqi said:
That's ok Larry...you've got a lot of company. :nod:
Jogeephus
Well-known member
With these high prices driving up the land rent for agriculture it would make someone raising cattle consider dumping the cattle and collecting land rent instead. Using some rough figures I think going cowless and renting my land and selling hay would be more profitable. Or I could just plow it all up and become an insurance farmer and retire next year. But then again, what would I do with Bertha?
I think Jog has the right idea
Higher the feed cost go the less cows there will be- cattle will only be on land that is good for nothing else or right next to a high moisture by product.
shortage in cattle= price staying high(although I don't really think the price of cattle is comparably all that high)
What I worry about is the ride we are going to go thru when infrastructure starts to collapse. Low numbers can't support all the infrastructure and its just a matter of time before the domino effect picks up speed. Less stockyards,less backgrounders,less feedlots,less processors. I see long term contracts for delivery in the future, as competition for available calves heats up.
Higher the feed cost go the less cows there will be- cattle will only be on land that is good for nothing else or right next to a high moisture by product.
shortage in cattle= price staying high(although I don't really think the price of cattle is comparably all that high)
What I worry about is the ride we are going to go thru when infrastructure starts to collapse. Low numbers can't support all the infrastructure and its just a matter of time before the domino effect picks up speed. Less stockyards,less backgrounders,less feedlots,less processors. I see long term contracts for delivery in the future, as competition for available calves heats up.
Red Bull Breeder
Well-known member
I see this country eating one hell of alot of imported beef.
Jogeephus
Well-known member
Howdyjabo":2f71b7m1 said:
I agree. Input costs such as fertilizer are going to have quite a sticker shock this year.
Howdyjabo":2f71b7m1 said:
With less options you give someone more control. Don't think it will go as far as the pork or chicken industry but any move in that direction is not good for the cattle producer.
I've had three people call me asking to rent land. $130/acre is the best I've been quoted for dry land. $300 for irrigated. We'd better learn to make bread out of cotton seed meal.
Wouldn't it be nice if things were just consistant instead of all these highs and lows.
TexasBred
Well-known member
Jogee...just call and tell the guvment you plan to flood the market with corn. Maybe they'll go back to paying you NOT to plant it.
kenny thomas
Well-known member
from agcenter.com
Governments from Egypt to India to Thailand have been reacting to public protest over high food costs. We truly have a global economy when it comes to food and food products move daily across national boundaries. The United Nations tracks food costs and periodically reports issues reports on their status. Global food prices hit a record high in January, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday, adding that prices, already above the 2008 levels which sparked riots, were likely to rise further. This was not good news for governments struggling to quell the public outrage.
It also is not good news for public policy makers who are charged with formulating policy to provide affordable food and sustainable agriculture. Chairman Bernanke in his first speech in several months took a powder when asked if quantitative easing QE2 was responsible for food inflation. "Inflation remains quite low" replied Bernanke. He failed to note that the government index tracking inflation does not include food costs.
Of course, Secretary Vilsack is asked about this issue almost daily. His response has been awarded the MOST OUTRAGEOUS STATEMENT OF THE YEAR. In fact the Secretary is responsible for TWO of the most outrageous statements of this past year:
•"Ethanol demand is not responsible for the sharp increase in corn prices."
•"Higher commodity prices will not cause higher food prices."
These statements are preposterous but are indicative of the box where many politicians find themselves. They can either continue to defend unsupportable policies or abandon the policies. Politicians are fairly predictable. When people start protecting high food cost and they will, the politicians will run for cover and abandon any loyalties to lobbyist groups like the ethanol industry.
High food cost also will help debunk many of the myths surrounding food production. Yields from organic crops are generally one third to one half less than conventionally farmed crops. With no evidence to support a health benefit from organic it is reasonable to expect some acres dedicated to organic farming convert or at least a decline in the growth of organic foods.
Another myth expected to go, is the notion that genetically modified seed is bad. Genetically modified seeds speed the same natural processes that occur in all plants when they fight for survival. They change their genetic makeup to ward off disease and insects that prey on the plant. By experimentation in the lab and scientific introduction of new DNA in the genetic code, the process is shortened and seed production delivers varieties that improve yields and reduce expenses for insecticides and herbicides. USDA recently approved a new GM variety of alfalfa that will be important to expanding the tonnage from the crop.
Nowhere is food inflation more dangerous than to the beef industry or all meats. Runaway corn prices require a beef price level that may not be possible. The current high price of beef threatens not only our export markets but also our domestic consumption. Beef must be affordable to be sustainable.
Governments from Egypt to India to Thailand have been reacting to public protest over high food costs. We truly have a global economy when it comes to food and food products move daily across national boundaries. The United Nations tracks food costs and periodically reports issues reports on their status. Global food prices hit a record high in January, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said on Thursday, adding that prices, already above the 2008 levels which sparked riots, were likely to rise further. This was not good news for governments struggling to quell the public outrage.
It also is not good news for public policy makers who are charged with formulating policy to provide affordable food and sustainable agriculture. Chairman Bernanke in his first speech in several months took a powder when asked if quantitative easing QE2 was responsible for food inflation. "Inflation remains quite low" replied Bernanke. He failed to note that the government index tracking inflation does not include food costs.
Of course, Secretary Vilsack is asked about this issue almost daily. His response has been awarded the MOST OUTRAGEOUS STATEMENT OF THE YEAR. In fact the Secretary is responsible for TWO of the most outrageous statements of this past year:
•"Ethanol demand is not responsible for the sharp increase in corn prices."
•"Higher commodity prices will not cause higher food prices."
These statements are preposterous but are indicative of the box where many politicians find themselves. They can either continue to defend unsupportable policies or abandon the policies. Politicians are fairly predictable. When people start protecting high food cost and they will, the politicians will run for cover and abandon any loyalties to lobbyist groups like the ethanol industry.
High food cost also will help debunk many of the myths surrounding food production. Yields from organic crops are generally one third to one half less than conventionally farmed crops. With no evidence to support a health benefit from organic it is reasonable to expect some acres dedicated to organic farming convert or at least a decline in the growth of organic foods.
Another myth expected to go, is the notion that genetically modified seed is bad. Genetically modified seeds speed the same natural processes that occur in all plants when they fight for survival. They change their genetic makeup to ward off disease and insects that prey on the plant. By experimentation in the lab and scientific introduction of new DNA in the genetic code, the process is shortened and seed production delivers varieties that improve yields and reduce expenses for insecticides and herbicides. USDA recently approved a new GM variety of alfalfa that will be important to expanding the tonnage from the crop.
Nowhere is food inflation more dangerous than to the beef industry or all meats. Runaway corn prices require a beef price level that may not be possible. The current high price of beef threatens not only our export markets but also our domestic consumption. Beef must be affordable to be sustainable.
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
I think we're gonna see some severe double digit inflation before it's all over. Some products are still lagging and will continue to lag.
john250
Well-known member
I would definitely caution all farmers about the danger of consumer unrest and government action.
And don't think ANY politician is going to help. Richard Nixon put price controls on meat in the 70's and the industry tanked for two or three years. Obama doesn't even have Nixon's inhibitions about govt action.
I'd say the meat counter is about to post some really big increases. If the US is going to put 1/3 of the corn crop into ethanol, it only follows naturally that meat, milk and eggs will be a LOT higher over time.
Imports are possible, especially in the hamburger trade. The price of corn, however, is one price plus shipping wherever you are. No one has cheap corn, so the quality meat, milk egg biz is going a lot higher.
If you poked me on my paranoid side, I'd say we'll hear politicians calling for nationalizing the farms. Evil profit mongers, y'know.
And don't think ANY politician is going to help. Richard Nixon put price controls on meat in the 70's and the industry tanked for two or three years. Obama doesn't even have Nixon's inhibitions about govt action.
I'd say the meat counter is about to post some really big increases. If the US is going to put 1/3 of the corn crop into ethanol, it only follows naturally that meat, milk and eggs will be a LOT higher over time.
Imports are possible, especially in the hamburger trade. The price of corn, however, is one price plus shipping wherever you are. No one has cheap corn, so the quality meat, milk egg biz is going a lot higher.
If you poked me on my paranoid side, I'd say we'll hear politicians calling for nationalizing the farms. Evil profit mongers, y'know.
kenny thomas
Well-known member
Hope no one thinks I am stiring the pot with these topics. I hope all grain and other ag product producers get the price they deserve to make a profit. I realize in many years in the past you have not.
Just wondering what these wild swing in prices will do to all phases of agriculture. I agree the politicians will jump on the bandwagon to whatever is in their best interest at the time. If you remember my post a while back even Al Gore admitted he got on the ethanol bandwagon for votes from Iowa.
Just wondering what these wild swing in prices will do to all phases of agriculture. I agree the politicians will jump on the bandwagon to whatever is in their best interest at the time. If you remember my post a while back even Al Gore admitted he got on the ethanol bandwagon for votes from Iowa.
john250
Well-known member
Kenny, you ain't stirring in any negative sense.
I sold a darned good years worth of calves for .28/lb after Nixon put those price controls on. The price had been above .50 before controls.
I see a lot of the same patterns in place, but, history never repeats exactly.
I sold a darned good years worth of calves for .28/lb after Nixon put those price controls on. The price had been above .50 before controls.
I see a lot of the same patterns in place, but, history never repeats exactly.
larryshoat
Well-known member
john250":1u6ichln said:
I've been saying for a long time this whole thing looks so much like the 70's that it's scary. I agree with the statement that the government now won't have the free market reservations that Nixon had.
Larry
Kingfisher
Well-known member
Howdyjabo":3qcnwypc said:I think Jog has the right idea
Higher the feed cost go the less cows there will be- cattle will only be on land that is good for nothing else or right next to a high moisture by product.
I had to read that more than once but how are you going to put cattle on scrapapple land? Do you need some for all these cows you propose? We got some cheap land here in texas that might meet your expectations.......
shortage in cattle= price staying high(although I don't really think the price of cattle is comparably all that high)
Compared to what? New Dually's?
What I worry about is the ride we are going to go thru when infrastructure starts to collapse. Low numbers can't support all the infrastructure and its just a matter of time before the domino effect picks up speed. Less stockyards,less backgrounders,less feedlots,less processors. I see long term contracts for delivery in the future, as competition for available calves heats up.
Red Bull Breeder
Well-known member
You all don't need to get your hopes to high. When folk can't pay the price for it the demand goes away, until it is affordable agin. What would you be willing to give for a lb of ground beef.
backhoeboogie
Well-known member
Red Bull Breeder":p5ghqe2x said:
I totally agree with you. Then I see people paying $6 for a pack of smokes and it looks like they need a sandwhich. People think nothing of paying a buck and a half for a bottled water. Back in the 70's there were water fountains everywhere and at every gas station. Shucks, every bum on the street has a cell phone.
I don't think the consumer mindset is the same now as it was then.
Red Bull Breeder
Well-known member
Goverment pays for ever bum on the street to have a cell phone boogie. The food stamp folks will be the only ones that can buy the high priced beef. Poor working folks will have to raise there own or do without.
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