2019-2020 Hay Pricing ?

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DCA farm

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Hay man said his prices won’t change so I’ll junp in and buy as much hay as I can early at least 3 rolls per cow. I’ll Let my biggest pasture stock pile toward end of growing season
 
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Stocker Steve

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Dave said:
My crystal ball is broken. There are thousands on thousands of acres of irrigated ground in the PNW. A lot of it is in a potato, wheat, alfalfa rotation. So a lot of our hay availability depends on the price of other commodities.

Standard rotation here used to be corn n alfalfa, now its corn n beans. Price does not seem to matter much.

Climate change effect is huge here - - grassy meadows are getting wetter.
 

Dave

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Stocker Steve said:
Dave said:
My crystal ball is broken. There are thousands on thousands of acres of irrigated ground in the PNW. A lot of it is in a potato, wheat, alfalfa rotation. So a lot of our hay availability depends on the price of other commodities.

Standard rotation here used to be corn n alfalfa, now its corn n beans. Price does not seem to matter much.

Climate change effect is huge here - - grassy meadows are getting wetter.

Timely rain really helps here. Rain to keep them from cutting on time making over ripe hay. Rained on hay that got bleached out getting it to dry. Both of those take it out of the export market and make it cow hay. Trouble is most of that irrigated ground is in the desert where it don't rain much.
 

Son of Butch

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Stocker Steve said:
Hay prices here have been trending up here since last summer.
Folks expect hay prices to drop (a little) this year. Talking heads are projecting an average reduction of $10/ton for hay. That is still too high for my budget. :(
Ya think.
We sell our poorest quality hay at sale barn, because dock at tested hay sales is too much.
Could not believe 800 lb med sq bales brought $85 bale ($212 ton) and 1 day last month when the weather was nice with more bidders than usual our junk hay brought $125 bale... $312 ton!!!
We sell at the sale barn because I couldn't ask anyone to pay what it brings with a straight face. :banana:
 

W.B.

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Stocker Steve said:
Dave said:
My crystal ball is broken. There are thousands on thousands of acres of irrigated ground in the PNW. A lot of it is in a potato, wheat, alfalfa rotation. So a lot of our hay availability depends on the price of other commodities.

Standard rotation here used to be corn n alfalfa, now its corn n beans. Price does not seem to matter much.

Climate change effect is huge here - - grassy meadows are getting wetter.
As farms get bigger there is not the labor or want to raise hay. As far as weather goes it is a cyclical beast that is out of our control. The climate change believers want an excuse to control the whole economy. I remember when the so called experts were talking of our impending doom of the forthcoming ice age. I am less than 50 yrs old btw. With the weather we have had the last 7 weeks they might be right after all.
 
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Stocker Steve

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W.B. As farms get bigger there is not the labor or want to raise hay. As far as weather goes it is a cyclical beast that is out of our control.[/quote said:
Right on about haying labor.

I know the Dakotas go through major dry and wet cycles. I used to live there. But when you look at the US overall - - big rain events have been increasing for the past 60 years in the corn belt. This correlates with increases in corn and bean cultivation. These crops (and the related irrigation), pump up the humidity level each day, by the plants taking in CO2 and putting out water. That moisture has to go somewhere.

So a simple person could blame rainy weather on the ethanol mandate... :eek:
 

W.B.

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Stocker Steve said:
W.B. As farms get bigger there is not the labor or want to raise hay. As far as weather goes it is a cyclical beast that is out of our control.[/quote said:
Right on about haying labor.

I know the Dakotas go through major dry and wet cycles. I used to live there. But when you look at the US overall - - big rain events have been increasing for the past 60 years in the corn belt. This correlates with increases in corn and bean cultivation. These crops (and the related irrigation), pump up the humidity level each day, by the plants taking in CO2 and putting out water. That moisture has to go somewhere.

So a simple person could blame rainy weather on the ethanol mandate... :eek:

So using your logic with all row crops increasing precipitation shouldn’t those folks in Kentucky be going through their driest months right now. Corn and beans have been done for the season for a while now. The thing is dry cycles and wet cycles can last longer than some of us live. Climate change is a convenient explanation for those than long for more govt. control of everything. Make no mistake they want more control.
 

bigbluegrass

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kenny thomas said:
bigbluegrass said:
I am going to attempt to "kick the hay habit". I think it will take at least three years. Next year I hope I can graze stockpiled grass until January and cut my hay cost in half. The year after, hopefully I can make it until February. The third year I am hoping not to need hay. I plan to build a hay barn in the next three years to store what I hope is an emergency storage of hay for a drought year or when the grass doesn't stockpile so well.

I may need to cull some cows along the way.
Good to plan but also plan that it's really hard to get past 10 months. It can be done but in the plan figure for 2 months of hay available if needed.

I agree! You mentioned in another thread that you just started feeding hay a few weeks ago. Good for you! That is awesome! :tiphat:

The hay barn would be to store hay for when stockpiling doesn't go as planned. I expect in the early years, it won't go as planned more often than it does go as planned.

If I can get to where I am grazing for 10 months, that would be progress.

The decreased stocking rate to go from 10 months to 12 months of grazing is also something to consider. With a cow/calf operation it is difficult to match the cheapest available feed supply to maximize profits. A little bit of hay can allow you to stay at a higher stocking rate. Are there times it is more profitable to buy 2 months of hay and stay at a higher stocking rate? I expect there probably are. An obvious example seems to be when cattle are high and hay is cheap. However, in that situation, it may be more profitable to sell some extra cows.
 
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Stocker Steve

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bigbluegrass With a cow/calf operation it is difficult to match the cheapest available feed supply to maximize profits. A little bit of hay can allow you to stay at a higher stocking rate. Are there times it is more profitable to buy 2 months of hay and stay at a higher stocking rate? I expect there probably are. An obvious example seems to be when cattle are high and hay is cheap. However said:
Yes. "Have to run the numbers." I like the U of Kentucky spreadsheet for bred cow n heifer values.

Cow herd inventory management is all the rage in some sell/buy circles. Obviously hay inventory management is another opportunity. Could sell both... :cowboy:
 

bigbluegrass

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Stocker Steve said:
Cow herd inventory management is all the rage in some sell/buy circles. Obviously hay inventory management is another opportunity. Could sell both... :cowboy:
Maybe a guy could pay for at least part of the new hay barn buying hay in surplus years, storing it a year or two and selling it on drought years. Buy high, sell low... err no wait, that probably only works with cattle :lol:
 

Banjo

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kentuckyguy said:
Banjo are you using the management intensive grazing methods?

I purchased the book but I’m only a couple chapters into it so far.

Yes I guess you could call it that. I've tried every approach.... i used to think high intensity mob grazing was the way to go.
Just let everything grow up and do several moves a day in order get 2 or 300,000 lbs of cattle per acre / day. I did that a year or two but didn't see much grass improvement.....I think studies and research trials have now shown that calf weaning weights won't be as good ..... i found that to be so. I still do mob grazing of a sort, but give the cattle bigger slices per day. If you watch how a cow likes to graze.....they like to go into an area and just graze the top off and keep moving. I'll give them(about 70 cows plus calves) 3 to 5 acres per day letting them just eat the tops....that way it grows back really fast. With this rainy weather you could probably rotate thru the whole farm every 21 days. Most people try to do 30 to 45 day rotations depending on growing conditions
 
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Stocker Steve

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Aaron

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Stocker Steve said:
Had a poster years back who did that - - bought hay below a certain price and sold hay above a certain price. Sometimes shedded hay for 3+ years, but did not seem concerned. CDs were not paying that well.

Hard to pay for a contractor built metal shed with beef hay. Dairy hay is different. I have wondered about a hoop building, vs a wrapper?

Hoop buildings don't like snow loads. One of the locals lost his during the last snow dump, was empty of hay that he sold, so it flattened it right to the ground. Surprised neighbor hasn't lost his - might be a costly experience with feeder cattle underneath.
 

Aaron

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Stocker Steve said:
Sounds like you need very good insurance for hoop housing.

What do inline wrappers run in your area?

Get them out of Manitoba, I think they are about $35k new. I have never seen a used one sell here.
 

chevytaHOE5674

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Friends of mine has a fabric hoop building that is 20+ years old and has been holding up great. For the price they paid back then it has paid for itself many times over storing a lot of hay.
 

ChrisB

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Storing dry hay inside would be great, but you still need to get it dry before baling. With a wrapper you have more options in getting the hay up.
 
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