What to do with land if the cattle industry collapsed?

[Redgully]

You rent it to the guy beside you that will keep running cattle indefinitely. Or maybe even sell it to him. I will be one of those guys. Then you can retire to the city and drink soy lattes while people tell you how much they hate their lives.

And the amount of estrogen hormones put into the man's system with drinking all those soy lattes, will turn all the men into pathetic excuses of a male with the more effeminate features coming out. Then there will be a population implosion as there will be no babies coming along so we will not have to worry about overpopulation in the world or having to limit family size as there will be next to no "families" since the men are no longer real men but have had their male hormone systems disrupted by the excess soy influenced estrogen..... and then the cancer rates will rise due to soy affecting the cancer growth explosion of the female reproduction tracts..... and on and on..... but by then they will have a cure for all that.....

Only in western society, some world countries that should stay where they are will come take over. Best to keep eating beef and drinking milk and breeding them strong. I'd like to see what happens to all the city folk during the next famine, probably eat their own dogs. I believe a catastrophic famine could happen if there was a massive volcano eruption, such as krakatoa. Five years of no summers would do it.

 

[Nesikep]

All that land will be freed up for other use, which is exactly nothing in many cases... What a total pile of crap that article is.. I have several old Dodges, and they'll be more valued than ever come 2030.. certainly not obsolete!

I think there may have been a typo, maybe the year 2300 will see this come to fruition?

 

[wbvs58]

In reality if the cattle industry did collapse, I would destock to a sustainable level where I don't have to spend money to keep them. They will always be worth something. I will probably do something similar this year or next as the drought here is pretty severe and when it does rain I will need to be lightly stocked to effect recovery.

Ken

 

[alisonb]

The long read -
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/07/the-price-of-plenty-how-beef-changed-america

 

[alisonb]

The amount of pessimism on this board never fails to amaze me. I am surrounded by people who make there living raising cattle and they never express the type of attitude that I see here.

Walk the talk Dave...

 

[Logar]

In the end be certain you control at least a small piece of land or someday you or a family member will go hungry.

A man I served with in the middle east lives on what used to be a small cattle ranch in Venezuela. He had about 150 head of beef cattle on that place.

One day several thousand people over ran his place, killed every animal on the land and carted off all the meat. He could not stop it and the authorities did not care. It took less than an afternoon and he was wiped out.

Now he keeps some chickens in the basement and grows a small garden - and THAT is how he and his wife eat today. His kids have all left the country via walking - once well off, they are now refugees in another country.

Once a respected rancher and ex-military guy, he lives in poverty today.

And people think it cannot happen to them.

 

[Son of Butch]

the question of what to do with land that may become worth much less in the next twenty years
in rural areas like many of us live?

What would (could) you do with property that won't grow crops but costs too much to maintain
to raise livestock profitably?

Farmland values will collapse by 40%-80%.
The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50%

Have fun and put the land to recreational use.
As their incomes continue to grow, rich city cousins demand for recreation will increase.
Rental income/admission fees on private land for affluent suburbanites to break their necks
tearing around with ATVs, snowmobiles and other motorized equipment in a manner not allowed
in public areas. Put in fun obstacle courses and so on to make it challenging and entertaining.
You could even charge them to run the heavy equipment to build the obstacle courses for you.
It's a lot of fun when it's not your real job.

IF you get handed lemons make lemonade, or better yet lemon meringue pie.

 

[Son of Butch]

In the end be certain you control at least a small piece of land or someday you or a family member will go hungry.
A man I served with in the middle east lives on what used to be a small cattle ranch in Venezuela. He had about 150 head of beef cattle on that place.

One day several thousand people over ran his place, killed every animal on the land and carted off all the meat. He could not stop it and the authorities did not care. It took less than an afternoon and he was wiped out.

Sounds like having property/land and cattle ect. didn't do him a dxm bit of good... now did it?

 

[Redgully]

the question of what to do with land that may become worth much less in the next twenty years
in rural areas like many of us live?

What would (could) you do with property that won't grow crops but costs too much to maintain
to raise livestock profitably?

Farmland values will collapse by 40%-80%.
The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50%

Have fun and put the land to recreational use.
As their incomes continue to grow, rich city cousins demand for recreation will increase.
Rental income/admission fees on private land for affluent suburbanites to break their necks
tearing around with ATVs, snowmobiles and other motorized equipment in a manner not allowed
in public areas. Put in fun obstacle courses and so on to make it challenging and entertaining.
You could even charge them to run the heavy equipment to build the obstacle courses for you.
It's a lot of fun when it's not your real job.

IF you get handed lemons make lemonade, or better yet lemon meringue pie.

That's already started around here. Us fruit growers are going under left right and center. Now some growers are having 'blossom' festivals where when the orchards are in flower they charge $10 a person to walk through. Autumn festivals, $10 a person to walk through the falling leaves. During harvest they charge $10 a person to pick fruit plus the cost of the fruit. Unbelievable though, the roads are packed and they have to bring in traffic control to keep things moving.

 

[Logar]

In the end be certain you control at least a small piece of land or someday you or a family member will go hungry.
A man I served with in the middle east lives on what used to be a small cattle ranch in Venezuela. He had about 150 head of beef cattle on that place.

One day several thousand people over ran his place, killed every animal on the land and carted off all the meat. He could not stop it and the authorities did not care. It took less than an afternoon and he was wiped out.

Sounds like having property/land and cattle ect. didn't do him a dxm bit of good... now did it?

Agree - but as he told me last month in a letter as he no longer has any computer access (note that many have had them removed by the "government") - the little land they have been able to retain still feeds him and the family remaining.

Cheers

 

[dieselbeef]

I'm gonna lease it to pot growers

 

[HDRider]

Bears repeating, many times over "Every one complains about evil mega companies but they put the small businesses out of business by wanting the cheapest product they can buy." - Brute 23

 

[HDRider]

The amount of pessimism on this board never fails to amaze me. I am surrounded by people who make there living raising cattle and they never express the type of attitude that I see here.

I am by nature a very optimistic person, driven by the realities I see.

I can only speak to my situation. It I know well.

It cost me more to carry a cow than I get from selling a calf. I am not spending money wastefully, or wantonly. I do not factor in my capital cost when I say that. I am speaking strictly about operating cost, mostly hay, which cost me about $35 per ~750# bale.

More cows cost more, less cows cost less. It is a linear equation for me.

Maybe I am doing it wrong. Maybe I am just too stupid to figure it out.

 

[backhoeboogie]

Hate to break it to the author but cattle havnt been able to pay for land in the last 25 years... we are already there. Land prices sky rocketed when the market quit valuing land off what it could produce in revenue.

People were still buying land in south east Oklahoma for $800 an acre not even ten years ago.

 

[HDRider]

Hate to break it to the author but cattle havnt been able to pay for land in the last 25 years... we are already there. Land prices sky rocketed when the market quit valuing land off what it could produce in revenue.

People were still buying land in south east Oklahoma for $800 an acre not even ten years ago.

How much is it now?

 

[backhoeboogie]

Hate to break it to the author but cattle havnt been able to pay for land in the last 25 years... we are already there. Land prices sky rocketed when the market quit valuing land off what it could produce in revenue.

People were still buying land in south east Oklahoma for $800 an acre not even ten years ago.

How much is it now?

Don't know. Haven't looked. This land was purchased near Fort Towson. The guy wasn't really looking. His brother bought a place and told him about the place next door for sale. So he bought it. Around 150 acres with an older house on it.

HDR all I know is hearsay from what he's telling me. I've known this guy for years and he has no reason to lie about anything. His integrity is good.

 

[JParrott]

The amount of pessimism on this board never fails to amaze me. I am surrounded by people who make there living raising cattle and they never express the type of attitude that I see here.

I am by nature a very optimistic person, driven by the realities I see.

I can only speak to my situation. It I know well.

It cost me more to carry a cow than I get from selling a calf. I am not spending money wastefully, or wantonly. I do not factor in my capital cost when I say that. I am speaking strictly about operating cost, mostly hay, which cost me about $35 per ~750# bale.

More cows cost more, less cows cost less. It is a linear equation for me.

Maybe I am doing it wrong. Maybe I am just too stupid to figure it out.

This is the main point I see. Myself, and I assume many others, don't farm for a living completely as we have day jobs. As long as the day job covers the losses and the person enjoys farming, it goes on. The farmers farming for a living or when the day job doesn't cover the losses are the ones I see being affected the easiest.

 

[JParrott]

I'm gonna lease it to pot growers

I'm not against growing a cash crop. Some folks around here understand and agree with tobacco farmers growing tobacco but vehemently oppose growing hemp. I like to think I'm a bit smarter than that.

 

[backhoeboogie]

How much is it now?

Out of curiosity I googled lands in Oklahoma. Found several places. If this link works you should look at this. Cows could pay for a place like this.

https://www.landsofamerica.com/property/424-acres-in-Nowata-County-Oklahoma/7388824/

 

[JParrott]

Hate to break it to the author but cattle havnt been able to pay for land in the last 25 years... we are already there. Land prices sky rocketed when the market quit valuing land off what it could produce in revenue.

People were still buying land in south east Oklahoma for $800 an acre not even ten years ago.

How much is it now?

Scrub land (trees and brush, not cleared) will sell for ~2k an acre here. It's doubled in value in 20 years (which seems to be the case since the fifties) but population has remained the same or grown less than 5%.

https://extension2.missouri.edu/G403