I'm not a fear monger or a tinfoil hat wearing type. However, there have been a couple of times in the past where technology and society has been on the verge of change and while I haven't been bitten by it - I discounted the writing on the wall either through ignorance, fear, or a bit of both. I browse Reddit and saw this https://www.rethinkx.com/food-and-agriculture posted. I think it's sensationalist and nonsense, but it begs the question of what to do with cattle and land that may become worth much less in the next twenty years in rural areas like many of us live?
What would (could) you do with property that won't grow crops but costs too much to maintain in order to raise livestock profitably?
Any other thoughts are welcome I suppose. While I don't think this scenario will play out like the link and below, I think discounting the economic impact of demand by people who think differently, live in urban areas, and are going to be the ones in control of certain areas as time passes is akin to sticking ones head in the sand. I don't worry about things I can't control too much, but I'd welcome other peoples thoughts on the subject.
Industry Impacts
By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50%. Production volumes of the U.S. beef and dairy industries and their suppliers will be cut by more than half.
By 2030, the market for ground beef by volume will have shrunk by 70%, the steak market by 30% and the dairy market by almost 90%. The markets for other cow products (leather, collagen, etc.) are likely to decline by more than 90%. In total, demand for cow products will fall by 70%.
By 2030, the U.S. dairy and cattle industries will have collapsed, leaving only local specialty farms in operation.
By 2035, demand for cow products will fall by 80%-90% and U.S. beef and dairy industry (and their suppliers) revenues, at current prices, will be down nearly 90%.
Farmland values will collapse by 40%-80%.
The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50% from 155 million tons in 2018 to 80 million tons in 2030, causing cattle feed production revenues, at current prices, to fall by more than 50% from 60 billion in 2019 to less than $30 billion in 2030.
All other livestock industries including fisheries will follow cattle and suffer similar disruptions, while the knock-on effects for throughout the value chain will be severe.
Food Cost Savings:
The cost of modern foods and products will be at least 50% and as much as 80% lower than the animal products they replace, which will translate into substantially lower prices and increased disposable incomes. The average U.S. family will save more than $1,200 a year in food costs, keeping an additional $100bn a year in Americans' pockets by 2030.
Jobs Lost and Gained:
Half of the 1.2 million jobs in U.S. beef and dairy production (including supply chain), along with their associated industries, will be lost by 2030, climbing toward 90% by 2035.
The emerging U.S. modern foods industry will create at least 700,000 jobs by 2030 and up to 1 million jobs by 2035.
Land Use and Environmental Impacts:
Modern foods will be far more efficient than animal-derived products: Up to 100 times more land efficient, 10-25 times more feedstock efficient, 20 times more time efficient, and 10 times more water efficient than industrial livestock. They will also produce an order of magnitude less waste.
By 2035, 60% of the land currently used for livestock and feed production will be freed for other uses. These 485 million acres equate to 13 times the size of Iowa, an area almost the size of the Louisiana Purchase. If all this land were dedicated to maximize carbon sequestration, all current sources of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions could be fully offset by 2035.
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from cattle will drop by 60% by 2030, on course to nearly 80% by 2035. Even when the modern food production that replaces animal agriculture is included, net emissions from the sector as a whole will decline by 45% by 2030, on course to 65% by 2035.
Water consumption in cattle production and associated feed cropland irrigation will fall by 50% by 2030, on course to 75% by 2035. Even when the modern food production that replaces animal agriculture is included, net water consumption in the sector as a whole will decline by 35% by 2030, on course to 60% by 2035.
Oil demand from the U.S. agriculture industry (currently 150 million barrels of oil equivalent a year) will fall by at least 50% by 2030.
Health & Food Security:
Nutritional benefits could have profound impact on health, particularly conditions such as heart disease, obesity, cancer, and diabetes that are estimated to cost the U.S. $1.7 trillion each year. The way they are produced should also ensure a sharp reduction in foodborne illness.
The modern food system will be decentralized and therefore more stable and resilient, thereby increasing food security.
Geopolitical Implications:
Trade relations and geopolitics will shift due to a decentralized food production system.
Any country will be able to capture the opportunities associated with a global industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
What would (could) you do with property that won't grow crops but costs too much to maintain in order to raise livestock profitably?
Any other thoughts are welcome I suppose. While I don't think this scenario will play out like the link and below, I think discounting the economic impact of demand by people who think differently, live in urban areas, and are going to be the ones in control of certain areas as time passes is akin to sticking ones head in the sand. I don't worry about things I can't control too much, but I'd welcome other peoples thoughts on the subject.
Industry Impacts
By 2030, the number of cows in the U.S. will have fallen by 50%. Production volumes of the U.S. beef and dairy industries and their suppliers will be cut by more than half.
By 2030, the market for ground beef by volume will have shrunk by 70%, the steak market by 30% and the dairy market by almost 90%. The markets for other cow products (leather, collagen, etc.) are likely to decline by more than 90%. In total, demand for cow products will fall by 70%.
By 2030, the U.S. dairy and cattle industries will have collapsed, leaving only local specialty farms in operation.
By 2035, demand for cow products will fall by 80%-90% and U.S. beef and dairy industry (and their suppliers) revenues, at current prices, will be down nearly 90%.
Farmland values will collapse by 40%-80%.
The volume of crops needed to feed cattle in the U.S. will fall by 50% from 155 million tons in 2018 to 80 million tons in 2030, causing cattle feed production revenues, at current prices, to fall by more than 50% from 60 billion in 2019 to less than $30 billion in 2030.
All other livestock industries including fisheries will follow cattle and suffer similar disruptions, while the knock-on effects for throughout the value chain will be severe.
Food Cost Savings:
The cost of modern foods and products will be at least 50% and as much as 80% lower than the animal products they replace, which will translate into substantially lower prices and increased disposable incomes. The average U.S. family will save more than $1,200 a year in food costs, keeping an additional $100bn a year in Americans' pockets by 2030.
Jobs Lost and Gained:
Half of the 1.2 million jobs in U.S. beef and dairy production (including supply chain), along with their associated industries, will be lost by 2030, climbing toward 90% by 2035.
The emerging U.S. modern foods industry will create at least 700,000 jobs by 2030 and up to 1 million jobs by 2035.
Land Use and Environmental Impacts:
Modern foods will be far more efficient than animal-derived products: Up to 100 times more land efficient, 10-25 times more feedstock efficient, 20 times more time efficient, and 10 times more water efficient than industrial livestock. They will also produce an order of magnitude less waste.
By 2035, 60% of the land currently used for livestock and feed production will be freed for other uses. These 485 million acres equate to 13 times the size of Iowa, an area almost the size of the Louisiana Purchase. If all this land were dedicated to maximize carbon sequestration, all current sources of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions could be fully offset by 2035.
U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from cattle will drop by 60% by 2030, on course to nearly 80% by 2035. Even when the modern food production that replaces animal agriculture is included, net emissions from the sector as a whole will decline by 45% by 2030, on course to 65% by 2035.
Water consumption in cattle production and associated feed cropland irrigation will fall by 50% by 2030, on course to 75% by 2035. Even when the modern food production that replaces animal agriculture is included, net water consumption in the sector as a whole will decline by 35% by 2030, on course to 60% by 2035.
Oil demand from the U.S. agriculture industry (currently 150 million barrels of oil equivalent a year) will fall by at least 50% by 2030.
Health & Food Security:
Nutritional benefits could have profound impact on health, particularly conditions such as heart disease, obesity, cancer, and diabetes that are estimated to cost the U.S. $1.7 trillion each year. The way they are produced should also ensure a sharp reduction in foodborne illness.
The modern food system will be decentralized and therefore more stable and resilient, thereby increasing food security.
Geopolitical Implications:
Trade relations and geopolitics will shift due to a decentralized food production system.
Any country will be able to capture the opportunities associated with a global industry worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
