The Market - Status Quo??

[TexasShooter]

I am considering increasing my herd from 20 cows to 30 cows. I know this isn’t much, but that’s a 50% growth from the herd I run now. However with the market like it is, I don’t know if it would be a wise move. Yes, I know the market could continue to increase…but I thought I would ask your opinion. Is anyone in the same situation I’m in? Trying to increase their herd during the boom while everyone else is rushing everything to the sale. Should I stay at status quo and wait the market out? Buy young heifers to keep costs down? Buy Cows? Buy Pairs? I would like to get a few opinions regarding your view of the market, where it might be headed, and what you might do if you were in my situation.
Thanks.

 

[J Baxter]

I'm in much the same situation. I am purchasing some additional tracts of pasture and need to purchase some additional animals. Prices are too high right now to be buying bred cows or cow calf pairs. I have seen indication that more heifers are starting to be retained rather than took to sale. Sooner or later Canada is going to open back up and prices will drop some. My plan right now is to buy heifer calves this fall when everyone is selling the 'new' crop and weaned calves are at lower prices. I have time and very cheap feed so I think I'll wait the market out for the most part.

 

[Texan]

Shooter, you've got an outstanding opportunity. You can buy cattle now at record prices. You can give more than anyone ever has. You can tell your grandkids how much you paid for cows and they might not believe you. Or you can wait it out. Hmmm?

If you put the pencil to the young heifer deal, its usually not a realistic way to "keep costs down." I sell every heifer I raise now. Haven't kept back any in two years and probably won't with these markets. Now I'm gonna put 'em in the bank. I KNOW I'll have a chance to keep some when they're cheaper.

Point is, it usually hurts a lot less in the long run to do what everybody else is not doing. If I had to buy something now, it would be bred, short-mouth cows. And they're too high!

 

[hillbilly]

Do you have any heifers that will be docked this fall?
I have three, One with half froze ears, one with too much ear, and one thats fat...
I'm keepin those three. They are all out of good cows, just have some points that the buyers will dock me for.
This is the only way I can afford to retain heifers at these record prices,

Hillbilly

 

[royB]

I also need to add to my herd, but I am waiting. Useing the money now to do projects I would normally do in the fall, then in the fall I hope to find the prices lower so I can add them then. Prices are moving generally down in our area, although some weeks the increase enough to cover several weeks of the drop, but still going down overall.

Unfortunatly my pastures have really responded to the fertilizer and lime with all the rain we have been getting and I have to clip them after about the second rotation through. Ofcourse when it comes to having both pasture quality and quantity it is a good problem to have..

Roy

 

[Anonymous]

I think you all make excellent points. I will throw in another view as I see it for my personal situation, which doesn't mean it is the right or the wise thing to do. I needed replacements and have old cows to packer. I paid $100 more or than I really wanted to (950 for 7-8 month bred) second calf cows. I raise replacement heifers and am increasing the price on them $25-50 per head as open ready to breed animals.
The risk ( which may be too much) is getting a live calf on the ground and buying into the predictions that this market will hold for two years. I should be in the clear with the 2005 calf. Anything can happen with the Canada situation and USDA testing for BSE.
One way I looked at this is we are handling more money; paying more for young replacement cows, but the calves are bring $100 more than usual. Cattle business always carries a risk, but porportionally the risk is not signifcantly greater than when prices were as in past years. :idea:

 

[C & C Land & Catt]

If you can afford to wait the best way in my opinion is to save your heifers back. There is no risk in cattle that are paid for. But if you do you might want to get another bull which will cost. There are always bulls out there and you would know what genetics you are putting back into your herd. We have all of our cattle on the ten year program, sell 10% of the old cows and keep back at least 12% or more depending on projected growth for the year. This works well because we are not trying to go buy cattle at a sale barn and are keeping our genetics top qaulity. We do not like inbreeding though so we have a pretty steep bull buying budget every year.

If you decide to go buy cattle pencil whip the fact that they are the highest they have ever been. If you buy heifers and the market does go south, they have several years to recoup the loss. Buy older cattle and they cost less but if the market drops they don't have many years to recoup the loss.

 

[jt]

i too, am looking to expand.. and my cows are getting old, but like some of you, i am having trouble talking myself into buying at these high prices.. i would like to retain some heifers, but they are so high that i may not. when you can sell a 585# heifer calf for 1.09/lb... it is hard not to.

if they take a dip, which they do sometimes during the summer months, i may pick up a few. i tend to agree with texan, i think the ss cows are the more reasonably priced, if any can be reasonably priced, at this time.

also, there have been a few first calf heifers, medium bred, go thru at decent prices.. only problem is, you dont know what they are bred to and that can be very risky..


jmo

jt

 

[TexasShooter]

Everyone, thanks for the advice. It seems I am not the only one with this decision. Common sense told me to wait…and according to you it seems like the right decision. I will watch the sale and the markets to see if I can pickup a bargain or like J Baxter said - pickup additional heifers in the fall if the price is right.

 

[PATB]

We have been retaining our heifer crop for the last 4 years and will do so this year. Dad sold off a bunch of older cows a year a go to make room for the young stock. I personally would have a hard time paying the current price of breeding stock.

 

[TheBullLady]

We've taken advantage of the prices this year... we've sold off almost half our cow herd, and we haven't retained a heifer all season. There is no way we can justify keeping heifers when they are bringing $1.35 a lb at weaning. I can't see any way you'll recoup that kind of price.

We remember very clearly 10 years ago when the calf prices went down the crapper.. and learned our lesson then. We'd much rather have grass to spare and our numbers down when the prices are high, then be caught with a bunch of cows and have them worth little. It doesn't make any sense to me to "buy into" the cattle cycle. We're of the opinion that it's wise to buy low and sell high.

I have a suspicion that this market will not last for two years. I predict a big fall out by August or September. It will be interesting to see what happens!

 

[la4angus]

I have a suspicion that this market will not last for two years. I predict a big fall out by August or September. It will be interesting to see what happens![/quote]

LeRoy wake up. There is gunna be a big train wreck.

 

[Anonymous]

I have a suspicion that this market will not last for two years. I predict a big fall out by August or September. It will be interesting to see what happens!

BullLady/la4angus - Is this based on "gut feeling" and your experience with the market or have you read analysis forcast, etc? If so where did you get the info. I am looking for a resource to help analyze my positions, etc.

 

[TexasShooter]

I have a suspicion that this market will not last for two years. I predict a big fall out by August or September. It will be interesting to see what happens!

BullLady/la4angus - Is this based on "gut feeling" and your experience with the market or have you read analysis forcast, etc? If so where did you get the info. I am looking for a resource to help analyze my positions, etc.

 

[Running Arrow Bill]

I sincerely empathasize with y'all about chasing a few dollars a head here and there on retainer or replacement purchases. I'm just glad we don't have to worry about those things too--we just have to worry about chasing pedigrees, color, horn, temperament, and conformation. If we find an animal that will contribute to our breeding program, and the price is decent (give or take $500 or so), we buy it. We don't have to worry about market price swings, cents per pound, and all. Guess this is the big difference between buying and selling beef and buying and selling registered sires and dams for our program.

Aside from all this...if you find a good replacement, buy it! He/she will pay for itself with quality calves that will make you money in long run! And, a old saying..."buy low, sell high"...(nice work if you can get it...lol).

 

[dun]

I sincerely empathasize with y'all about chasing a few dollars a head here and there on retainer or replacement purchases. I'm just glad we don't have to worry about those things too--we just have to worry about chasing pedigrees, color, horn, temperament, and conformation. If we find an animal that will contribute to our breeding program, and the price is decent (give or take $500 or so), we buy it. We don't have to worry about market price swings, cents per pound, and all. Guess this is the big difference between buying and selling beef and buying and selling registered sires and dams for our program.

Aside from all this...if you find a good replacement, buy it! He/she will pay for itself with quality calves that will make you money in long run! And, a old saying..."buy low, sell high"...(nice work if you can get it...lol).

I alwasy thought the old saying was "Buy high, sell low and make it up on volume"

dun

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

Too bad you boys are so far south. If the border opens this fall, there will be a good opportunity for the cattlemen in the northern states to pick up some really crackerjack bred heifers and first calvers really cheap. Alot of guys have been holding back waiting for the border to open and from what I've seen the replacements that they are holding are pretty top notch.

 

[la4angus]

Too bad you boys are so far south. If the border opens this fall, there will be a good opportunity for the cattlemen in the northern states to pick up some really crackerjack bred heifers and first calvers really cheap. Alot of guys have been holding back waiting for the border to open and from what I've seen the replacements that they are holding are pretty top notch.

For the right quality and genetics, I have justified paying as much as $270. 00 per hd to bring cattle from Mt. to La.
Canada isn't a whole lot farther. Where are you better off; spending $1000.00 for a cow and paying $400.00 to get her home or paying $2000.00 for an animal with a $50.00 shipping bill.?????

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

For the right quality and genetics, I have justified paying as much as $270. 00 per hd to bring cattle from Mt. to La.
Canada isn't a whole lot farther. Where are you better off; spending $1000.00 for a cow and paying $400.00 to get her home or paying $2000.00 for an animal with a $50.00 shipping bill.?????

Black angus is a very popular breed up here although some of what we grow might be a little large for your area down south. If the border opens, I will try to post some of the names of cattlemen who specialize in replacement heifers in case you are interested. I think if you could split a potload between a few guys it might make it affordable. I picked up three real nice open black heifers back in February for $435.00 CDN each at the auction barn. One is a bit skittish but the other two will work out just fine. The skittish one is scheduled go into the freezer in January (that's the earliest date I could get for slaughter at the local abattoir as of May 21/04). She already looks delicious and for that price, I can sell half and get my money back and still get to eat the other half. What a good deal.

 

[Anonymous]

For the right quality and genetics, I have justified paying as much as $270. 00 per hd to bring cattle from Mt. to La.
Canada isn't a whole lot farther. Where are you better off; spending $1000.00 for a cow and paying $400.00 to get her home or paying $2000.00 for an animal with a $50.00 shipping bill.?????

Black angus is a very popular breed up here although some of what we grow might be a little large for your area down south. If the border opens, I will try to post some of the names of cattlemen who specialize in replacement heifers in case you are interested. I think if you could split a potload between a few guys it might make it affordable. I picked up three real nice open black heifers back in February for $435.00 CDN each at the auction barn. One is a bit skittish but the other two will work out just fine. The skittish one is scheduled go into the freezer in January (that's the earliest date I could get for slaughter at the local abattoir as of May 21/04). She already looks delicious and for that price, I can sell half and get my money back and still get to eat the other half. What a good deal.

CRR I would appreciate it ir you could let us know when some of these good Canadian will be being offered for sale after the border opens.
Very possible others on here could be interested in knowing also.
Those Canadian cattle are as good as any to be found anywhere.
I wish the best for our Northern Neighbors and hope it opens before all the cattlemen there are Bankrupt. I would hate to be in the same situation as U guys are but it could happen.