Bestoutwest
Well-known member
What's your take on how things are going to go this year? Barring WWIII, how will you invest and what do you see the market doing? Is this another rising year or will an adjustment happen?
Stock Market
- Thread starter Bestoutwest
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boondocks
Well-known member
Most "experts" seem to think we have a correction coming. One always does if you wait around long enough...How much of a correction is the question to me....I've already pulled a little out
My brother and I have been discussing this in length back and forth. We are literally at an all time high. I debated selling every thing and just letting the money sit in a money market. Im gambling that the market won't tank under this administration because moral is just too high.
Ive debated selling off X% a month or year right now. If any one has a recipe Im all ears?
Ive debated selling off X% a month or year right now. If any one has a recipe Im all ears?
boondocks
Well-known member
Brute 23":29tocjgq said:My brother and I have been discussing this in length back and forth. We are literally at an all time high. I debated selling every thing and just letting the money sit in a money market. Im gambling that the market won't tank under this administration because moral is just too high.
Ive debated selling off X% a month or year right now. If any one has a recipe Im all ears?
I think the term you're looking for is "irrational exuberance." I think the market has already factored in the lifting of regs, tax breaks, etc. The hard financials (according to the experts I read; I'm sure not one) seem to not support the current level, let alone much more of an increase. But then again, that ignores the whole ponzi scheme nature of the thing, doesn't it?
All it will take is the wrong tweet on the wrong day, or even just a gradual softening back down to reality. I'm torn like you. I swore in 2007 that if the Dow ever hit 14 again, I was OUT. I think I will take some more out soon....I like your idea of basically dollar-cost averaging--just take out a designated amount X over each Y period of time. Probably a better bet than trying to time the market...
True Grit Farms
Well-known member
The stock market has been really good for those who let other folk's look after they're money. I don't gamble so I've missed out. In life there's going to be winner's and losers. I like land and cattle, land as an investment, cattle as a cash flow. To me everything else is just paper, and paper doesn't taste good.
hurleyjd
Well-known member
Does the 30 stocks representing the Dow Jones average really a good representation of the market as a whole. and does it really represent the economy as a whole. Dow historical drop happened on 10-19-1987 1738.74 -508.00 -22.61%. And I was there with some stock leveraged. Broker sold me out and some gained back the next day. Never leveraged since.
I could see how this index with the 30 stocks could be manipulated to make people think that the economy was in good shape.
How is the economy doing in the farming communities. If I did not have income from somewhere else I could not keep the operation afloat.
I could see how this index with the 30 stocks could be manipulated to make people think that the economy was in good shape.
How is the economy doing in the farming communities. If I did not have income from somewhere else I could not keep the operation afloat.
A
Anonymous
I'm not smart enough to play the game. I think if there were a place to park cash in a cd or money market account, and gain a reasonable interest like in the 90s, many would run from stocks. I'm more self invested though sometimes I wonder why. Boats, commercial waterfront property, seafood products, land and a few cattle make up my investments. The downside of it is that it still takes me managing it all to make it profitable. Just a lot of WORK!!
My take on the stock market is the rich are getting richer. I am not talking about owning a few piddly stocks here. All the extra money the companies have/gets go to the investors (rich) instead of the workers getting pensions, pay raises, bonuses. Workers just don't get paid for their hard work anymore. When these hard workers are all broke down in their latter years who will take care of them as they sure want have nothing to fall back on, maybe a joke defined 401k.
WalnutCrest
Well-known member
I've spent the majority of my career in activities relating to investing in the publicly traded markets and private investments.
Use this opportunity to strategically rebalance between large and small caps ... value and growth ... domestic and international ... as well as rebalance between equities and fixed income (treasuries, corporates (high yield and investment grade), municipals, and developed sovereign debt) ... and publicly traded securities and private commodities (real estate, oil, timber, etc) and private companies.
If all you have is enough to do some equities, find a diversified low cost ETF that makes sense to you.
Use this opportunity to strategically rebalance between large and small caps ... value and growth ... domestic and international ... as well as rebalance between equities and fixed income (treasuries, corporates (high yield and investment grade), municipals, and developed sovereign debt) ... and publicly traded securities and private commodities (real estate, oil, timber, etc) and private companies.
If all you have is enough to do some equities, find a diversified low cost ETF that makes sense to you.
Ryder
Well-known member
The market will go up, or down, or sideways. I'm pretty sure of this. :nod:
It is in a powerful uptrend. It will end but there is no way to know when. I have been expecting a reversal for a long time now. But it hasn't come.
Until then--ride the trend. Protect yourself by using real tight stops.
If you stop out and the market resumes the trend, you can always get back in.
But if you don't have your stops in place and it reverses you can get hurt, as many people will.
It is in a powerful uptrend. It will end but there is no way to know when. I have been expecting a reversal for a long time now. But it hasn't come.
Until then--ride the trend. Protect yourself by using real tight stops.
If you stop out and the market resumes the trend, you can always get back in.
But if you don't have your stops in place and it reverses you can get hurt, as many people will.
bird dog
Well-known member
Open an account at Vanguard and look into their life strategy funds. Very low costs and you can take as much risk as you want. I like the moderate growth one for my stage in this life. Put the money there and leave it alone.
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... trategy/#/
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... trategy/#/
Here are two articles about bonds and stock market.
http://amers2.views.cp.thomsonreuters.c ... nL8N1PH648
http://amers2.views.cp.thomsonreuters.c ... nL4N1PJ4NB
http://amers2.views.cp.thomsonreuters.c ... nL8N1PH648
http://amers2.views.cp.thomsonreuters.c ... nL4N1PJ4NB
Bestoutwest
Well-known member
jltrent":1vf0jcrk said:
Careful, you're a couple of words away from getting labeled as a liberal here. Not by me, but by some. I agree that the top is getting quite fat on the backs of others.
I'm not sure it will last too much longer, honestly. I'm seeing it locally as the Boise housing market is a bit overpriced at the moment. Jobs around here can't support it (most are starting in the $13/hour range). We're one good news story away from things going kaput financially, but since I have all my investments (son's college fund, retirement) tied up in mutual funds, I can't dump them quickly without taking a huge hit.
Bright Raven
Well-known member
The danger of getting out is not being able to get back in. If you are over 60, then you might want to reallocate to reduce volatility.
No one can time the market. It just does not work that way.
No one can time the market. It just does not work that way.
Son of Butch
Well-known member
5 stars on recommending Vanguard.bird dog":1phhuvm4 said:
I prefer the passively managed Vanguard Total Stock Index Fund for stocks, but for bonds rather than an Index fund
I prefer the actively managed Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund.
Vanguard has the lowest mutual fund fees in the business, life strategy funds are fine and VG offers many options,
so to each their own.
Supply and demand.
Stock prices are rising because more money is coming into buy stocks than sellers taking money out.
In my opinion the new money coming in is from FEAR. From accounts and late buyers afraid of missing out on the rally.
In the words of Alan Greenspan, Irrational Exuberance.
IF so then the stock market is in the last stage of it's rally before a market correction (expect a drop of 10% or more)
How long the last stage lasts is the great unknown.
The problem is where is the safest place to be before the correction happens?
I expect commercial real estate will benefit from the Trump tax cut.
Vanguard R.E.I.T. (commercial real estate and income) has under performed the market for the past few years
and in my opinion should be safer/ less volatile when the correction comes.
Historically gold and real estate under perform vs the stock market, so I only want to be in them in a bear market
and never in a bull market.
After April 15th I may move a portion of my funds from the Total Stock Index Fund to R.E.I.T. fund and wait for
stock correction to happen and then sell the R.E.I.T. to buy back into the stock fund at the corrected lower price.
For individuals that prefer sector investing instead of the total market.
MY fearless prediction is Health Care sector funds will out perform the total market fund this year.
Just my :2cents: and even at that value it might be over priced.
Son of Butch
Well-known member
Yes, that's a very good point. I expect better than bonds and long term worst than the stock market.Hunter":6uptv64k said:
I view the R.E.I.T. fund as a short term investment haven as a place that will lose less during a market correction
because it did not take part in the big stock market run up, in my opinion it will not get beaten down as badly.
But R.E.I.T. is not where I want to be long term.
Son of Butch":2o78ws95 said:
That has been my debate. Although I don't want to be in my index funds like SP when it corrects I can't find a better alternative. Just sitting idle can hurt more than it helps in some cases. In the most recent falls the market came back pretty quick so it may be best to just ride it.
Dave
Well-known member
I lost big time in the dot com crash. It took years for the market to come back to where I was even. When it got even I pulled the money out and I never put anything into stocks after that. Fast forward to this year. Between inheritance and some real estate I have a bunch of money drawing next to no interest is savings. That money is earmarked to buy a new place. Had I put it into the market a year ago I would have made a bundle but I don't feel like gambling. And to me the stock market is just legal gambling. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
