I have a bad feeling we are not out of this dry spell yet. I'm about to get real lean in the next 60-90 days again.
My place got 10" around October 25. Had some moisture since then, and since my soil can store about 10" of water and the growing season for warm season grasses was over when we got the big rain, I feel like if we get normal rain into February I can buy a few bred cows to pull up my numbers again.
Advisory is for at least a normal year through June. If it turns dry in spring, I'll probably just sell everything around June and let the wildlife have fun.
But in this market it's hard not to want calves on the ground each year. Money seems to definitely be there. When I calculated my model's profitability, I assumed I'd only get to sell #2 calves for about $800 a piece. If I could sell them in today's market for more than $1000 while never feeding hay, that situation might even buy some genetic upgrades over time. Still not in the black, though, and I think the drought delayed profitability for at least another year.
I probably could have bought enough expensive hay to get my original herd through the winter by using the money the two little bulls would have brought in June, but just couldn't do it, exactly because of the chance that D4 drought comes back. It seems the savvy cattlemen destock early and maybe a little bit more than most people think they should, so I'm trying to 'be smart'. As there was nothing really special about that original herd, I don't regret my decision.
I should be shooting for 10 calves a year on my small place, but looking at only 4 this fall because of that last drought. Feel like adding a few fall calvers won't be a bad idea if I get two more rains between now and around Feb 15, though. That will get me back up to 6 this year and a chance at 8 next year. If we have a bumper year, I might even try to hit my original plan of 10 next year.
But not planning on Corrientes! Not near as poor as when I started. Gonna try to get bona fide mutt beef cattle this time that aren't homesteader castoffs, crazy, ugly or infertile! Got a real cattleman acquaintance who says he's willing to help, so I think I've got a shot.
Nothing to do on that but watch and wait.