Slaughter bulls and cows

[kenny thomas]

Stopped by a stockyard today in my travels. 3 hours from here.
Seen slaughter bulls as high as 1.40 and cows up to 1.22. Lots of cows 1.00 to 1.10.
This is going to reduce the cow numbers quicker than usual. Unless there is a issue that causes lots of dairy cows to go to slaughter it could get really interesting next month.

 

[SBMF 2015]

They are sending lots of hfrs to the feed lots too. Very few people seem to be interested in expansion yet.

 

[kenny thomas]

They are sending lots of hfrs to the feed lots too. Very few people seem to be interested in expansion yet.

Its going to be hard to get them to expand when the quick profit is in 1.80 fats.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Its going to be hard to get them to expand when the quick profit is in 1.80 fats.

I agree. But with the cost of gain being so high there was as much as a $0.50 spread between feeder steers and heifers at the sale on Thursday.
I saved quite a few hfrs. I'm sure glad I did. Even if they don't turn out to be good enough for replacements they'll be bigger when I sell them.

 

[kenny thomas]

I agree. But with the cost of gain being so high there was as much as a $0.50 spread between feeder steers and heifers at the sale on Thursday.
I saved quite a few hfrs. I'm sure glad I did. Even if they don't turn out to be good enough for replacements they'll be bigger when I sell them.

Feed has actually dropped about $40 a ton here. But cost of gain is still high.

 

[moses388]

I cherry-pick a few heifers to retain from each group. I have been selling more cows; been buying hay all month. My herd is getting smaller, but hopefully better. Had 1 cow bring $1.20, but most around $0.90.

 

[Travlr]

Its going to be hard to get them to expand when the quick profit is in 1.80 fats.

Conspiracy theory 101...

Why are prices so high? Why are packers paying so much for cattle? Is there a shortage of animals to slaughter or a big increase in demand?

 

[kenny thomas]

Conspiracy theory 101...

Why are prices so high? Why are packers paying so much for cattle? Is there a shortage of animals to slaughter or a big increase in demand?

Good question. Whats your thought. I bought good slaughter cows in the 50's 9 months ago. Has the shortage came since then? I doubt it. Has the demand changed that much? I doubt it.

 

[Brute 23]

I cherry-pick a few heifers to retain from each group. I have been selling more cows; been buying hay all month. My herd is getting smaller, but hopefully better. Had 1 cow bring $1.20, but most around $0.90.

That's what I like about hard times. It forces cuts that I may not have made otherwise.

 

[Travlr]

Good question. Whats your thought. I bought good slaughter cows in the 50's 9 months ago. Has the shortage came since then? I doubt it. Has the demand changed that much? I doubt it.

Is Bill Gates buying up cattle so numbers go down and ag land can be had at reduced prices? Has Impossible Burger and the vegan agenda convinced the climate change lobby to invest in beef to drive numbers down and reduce methane? Are lizard people involved and hoarding canned beef in the basements of pizza parlors?

Tune in next week for all the newest updates. Somebody will know something... or at least imagine they do.

 

[Buck Randall]

Conspiracy theory 101...

Why are prices so high? Why are packers paying so much for cattle? Is there a shortage of animals to slaughter or a big increase in demand?

Yes. Restaurant spending has stayed strong and people are eating beef. Poor prices, feed costs, and bad weather have thinned the national cow herd quite a bit over the past few years. Current numbers of cattle on feed are way down from last year. We're riding an upward spiral right now - low numbers are driving the price higher, and high prices are keeping the numbers from growing.

 

[Dave]

Good question. Whats your thought. I bought good slaughter cows in the 50's 9 months ago. Has the shortage came since then? I doubt it. Has the demand changed that much? I doubt it.

Where were you buying slaughterer cows in the 50's 9 months ago? 8 moths ago I got $1.90 on the rail for kill cows. It was up from a month previously but not double.

Finished fat cattle are low in numbers and carcass weights are down. Feeders know this and have been holding the line which has helped to drive prices up.

 

[50/50Farms]

Stopped by a stockyard today in my travels. 3 hours from here.
Seen slaughter bulls as high as 1.40 and cows up to 1.22. Lots of cows 1.00 to 1.10.
This is going to reduce the cow numbers quicker than usual. Unless there is a issue that causes lots of dairy cows to go to slaughter it could get really interesting next month.

Makes sense what that guy told me the other day up in Ardmore.

 

[wbvs58]

We sold a lot more beef to the US last month for a good bit more than we had been getting for it the last 12 months, so things must be changing for you.

Ken

 

[kenny thomas]

Where were you buying slaughterer cows in the 50's 9 months ago? 8 moths ago I got $1.90 on the rail for kill cows. It was up from a month previously but not double.

Finished fat cattle are low in numbers and carcass weights are down. Feeders know this and have been holding the line which has helped to drive prices up.

I bought fat cows here in Virginia less than .60 average. Even now i can only get 1.70 on the rail and only 1.40 if they hang less than 400lb. So small or thin cows are still cheap.

 

[SBMF 2015]

Conspiracy theory 101...

Why are prices so high? Why are packers paying so much for cattle? Is there a shortage of animals to slaughter or a big increase in demand?

The Answer is both. Reduced cattle numbers and demand.
Chicken isn't a cheap alternative right now and for some reason consumers are over looking cheaper pork to fill the gap.
It will take several years to rebuild herd numbers. So for now enjoy, pay down debt, and prepare.
We all know the cure for high prices is high prices.

 

[BC]

Conspiracy theory 101...

Why are prices so high? Why are packers paying so much for cattle? Is there a shortage of animals to slaughter or a big increase in demand?

Both. The packers would not increase what they pay for cattle if they cannot sell the meat. When the price of meat gets to the point it is not moving, the packers will use the excuse that they cannot sell the meat. They are going to keep (at least the majority of it) their margin.

 

[moses388]

We sold a lot more beef to the US last month for a good bit more than we had been getting for it the last 12 months, so things must be changing for you.

Ken

I missed that headline in the USA markets & newscycle.

 

[bird dog]

Exports have been very strong for a while now. South Korea is up bigly according to some charts in the Progressive Cattleman magazine. Japan is also a big importer.

 

[moses388]

USA beef imports {click here} - Imported Aussie beef trimmings are ground into hamburger.