Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Are calf prices low enough to load up on replacement heifers, or are you waiting till next fall ?
Aaron said:Don't know why you would retain a bunch of heifers when you're likely to see hoards of dispersals where the price of breds is a bid above kill (maybe). Because there are far more people wondering if they should get out, than in.
Stocker Steve said:Aaron said:Don't know why you would retain a bunch of heifers when you're likely to see hoards of dispersals where the price of breds is a bid above kill (maybe). Because there are far more people wondering if they should get out, than in.
Good point, if you want short breds. Heavy breds are high here due to demand of calf serum for fake meat.
Aaron In this market you want quick turnaround. Input prices won't go down and heifer calves need lots of inputs before they have a calf to bring in some cash. Problem is they might be worth less than what you could have sold for if the market keeps diving. [/quote said:Anyone flipping calves on the Rainy, or is it too small of a market?
Already have a few bred heifers that are worth less...
Harlan has (re) called the heifer price bottom in 2020. It keeps moving out in time.
Stocker Steve said:Aaron In this market you want quick turnaround. Input prices won't go down and heifer calves need lots of inputs before they have a calf to bring in some cash. Problem is they might be worth less than what you could have sold for if the market keeps diving. [/quote said:Anyone flipping calves on the Rainy, or is it too small of a market?
Already have a few bred heifers that are worth less...
Harlan has (re) called the heifer price bottom in 2020. It keeps moving out in time.
I bought 4 of the boss' commercial heifers last fall. $725 purchase, $500 in them on Tuesday when we preg check. Do I sell them for $1500 and run or keep them? If they stuck AI they are bred to sexed S Chisum female semen.....Got grass for them, but got bills to pay too. Taxes won't be a problem this year with buying tractor and utv.
Stocker Steve said:Aaron In this market you want quick turnaround. Input prices won't go down and heifer calves need lots of inputs before they have a calf to bring in some cash. Problem is they might be worth less than what you could have sold for if the market keeps diving. [/quote said:Anyone flipping calves on the Rainy, or is it too small of a market?
Already have a few bred heifers that are worth less...
Harlan has (re) called the heifer price bottom in 2020. It keeps moving out in time.
Not too much backgrounding going on here anymore. All the backgrounders either died, retired or went into cow/calf and started raising their own. BSE wiped a bunch out and the highs in 14/15 finished the rest off - guys got a little sweaty when they had $150k invested in 100 calves. Local feeder/breeder finance co-op is hurting for people to take loans out to buy feeder/breeding cattle. Their numbers are way down as people pay off their loans and don't enter into new ones. They survive on admin fees and isn't worth the hassle to continue if they don't have enough loans out.
If 2020 is worse than this currently, I can see a lot of young bucks quitting and going into grain. Too many are up to their necks in debt and can't stand a continual downturn. These would be the ones that never learned their 'hard times' lesson during BSE.
Aaron said:Don't know why you would retain a bunch of heifers when you're likely to see hoards of dispersals where the price of breds is a bid above kill (maybe). Because there are far more people wondering if they should get out, than in.
Aaron All the backgrounders either died said:Got to look at the risk vs. the return. Pretty easy to tie up alot of $$$ in unprotected feeders.
I did some heavy number crunching a couple years ago trying to compare crop/cow calf/stockers. About half my land could do any of these three enterprises. There was some variation in GM/acre, but the big variation was in risk, labor, and ROI.
Aaron said:Stocker Steve said:Aaron In this market you want quick turnaround. Input prices won't go down and heifer calves need lots of inputs before they have a calf to bring in some cash. Problem is they might be worth less than what you could have sold for if the market keeps diving. [/quote said:Anyone flipping calves on the Rainy, or is it too small of a market?
Already have a few bred heifers that are worth less...
Harlan has (re) called the heifer price bottom in 2020. It keeps moving out in time.
Not too much backgrounding going on here anymore. All the backgrounders either died, retired or went into cow/calf and started raising their own. BSE wiped a bunch out and the highs in 14/15 finished the rest off - guys got a little sweaty when they had $150k invested in 100 calves. Local feeder/breeder finance co-op is hurting for people to take loans out to buy feeder/breeding cattle. Their numbers are way down as people pay off their loans and don't enter into new ones. They survive on admin fees and isn't worth the hassle to continue if they don't have enough loans out.
If 2020 is worse than this currently, I can see a lot of young bucks quitting and going into grain. Too many are up to their necks in debt and can't stand a continual downturn. These would be the ones that never learned their 'hard times' lesson during BSE.
I don't know for sure whether the gentleman my husband met with this morning will go with us (he contacted us) or with another fellow/operation but he's asking us to background 1000 calves for him for 90 days.
I feel a little anxious about it.
Dave We are getting close to time to cull the heck out of the cow herd. That means anything over middle age. Retain cheap heifers. Those cull cows sell as either bred cows or kill cows are worth more than the heifers. The next year you will have less to sell but own a much younger cow herd. [/quote said:Time to sort those terminal bulls you bought in 2013/2014/2015, and buy back some cow makers. :cboy:
Dave said:We are getting close to time to cull the heck out of the cow herd. That means anything over middle age. Retain cheap heifers. Those cull cows sell as either bred cows or kill cows are worth more than the heifers. The next year you will have less to sell but own a much younger cow herd.