Please analyze my Seasonal Ranching Plan

[TexasRancher]

Please analyze my Ranching Plan…

I've been very successful in growing a herd of 100+ goats and culling for meat. I know people are sensitive to having their dreams squashed but I need your evaluations and recommendations per my plan. Please none of the…stick with the goat's jokes allowed. :nod: I'm seeking any obvious big holes in my gameplan.

Set-up:

Have 31 acres of semi-improved pastureland.
Have 20 acres of semi-improved pastureland.
Ranches are separated and will not be moving cattle between lots.
I will not be dividing land (no internal fencing) in either lots.
I will not be "loving my cattle to financial ruin" another words…no candy feed, just grass.
They will get plenty of fresh water, all their shots, and my loving prayers.

My Plan:

Seeking to purchase 17-tagged fall-born, grass-eating steer in March.
Placing 7 on the 20 acres.
Placing 10 on the 30 acres.
Seeking to sell in late November, early December (grass season ends)…. remove all 17 steer on trailer to the auction/market.
No vet bills…will isolate a sick steer only.
My plan or goal (to date) is to be a seasonal- 9 month cattle meat raiser.

My Expectations:

To learn about the process of raising steer and selling meat at the auctions-market.
To work hard on keeping the fields in check and the fencing proper.
I'm game to expect to lose 2 steer at max.
To make at least $300. per-head profit on 15 steer…or $4,500. total profit my first year after initial outlay costs for the steer, vaccinations, water, and logistics.
(Assume my time is free (hobbyist) that enjoys cattle)
....thanks.

 

[backhoeboogie]

That is a decent plan, for the current situation. I myself have debated buying a couple hundred 4 or 5 weights and selling them as 8 weights off of grass I have available.

With the current price of feed, the current cattle market for packer bulls, cutters, canners, and overall desire for larger market steers, I am looking at opportunity that has never occurred in my life time.

Hay sales are okay this year but if I could put beef on some of that pasture, it may be a better hedging.

You would be entering the business without a huge up front investment and you could become schooled and skilled at a slow pace. You are not throwing yourself into the frying pan with a crash course so to speak.

 

[Central Fl Cracker]

Go to an auction page and checked the buy weight and then the sell weight. It is humanly impossible to make $ 300 per steer. I also have researched this idea and maybe you can gross $ 150 per head minus minerals, Lease payment, Vacinations etc. I do not want to bust your bubble but I also have researched this idea and can not make the numbers work. When you decide on the buy weight and sell weight divide the total lbs. of gain and divide the days on grass and see what the ADG would have to be.

 

[backhoeboogie]

No 1 steer prices at the last local auction.


300-400 lbs. $110-$118
400-500 lbs. $105-$115
500-600 lbs. $100-$108
600-700 lbs. $97-$103

 

[Arkieman]

No 1 steer prices at the last local auction.


300-400 lbs. $110-$118
400-500 lbs. $105-$115
500-600 lbs. $100-$108
600-700 lbs. $97-$103

If I was considering this, these numbers would be the first place I'd look at. In my short experience, we won't see prices this good in October... Seems like everything comes to market and prices go down. Using my calculations based on Averages:

350lb @ 1.14 - $399
650lb @ 1.00 - $650

Profit before ANY expenses - $251...

Wouldn't be surprized to see that 6 to 7 weight around $85-$90 in October. JMHO. If it did hit $90 - profit before expenses = $186/head. Won't pay your gas to check em everyday for 6 months!!

 

[backhoeboogie]

we won't see prices this good in October...

You are correct but his plan is to buy in March, or that is how I read it.

As with anything else, it is always best to buy low and sell high. I am still waiting on low.

 

[1982vett]

we won't see prices this good in October...

You are correct but his plan is to buy in March, or that is how I read it.

As with anything else, it is always best to buy low and sell high. I am still waiting on low.

400# calf prices are usually heading higher in March thru May also. About the time pastures start the spring greenup.

 

[Red Bull Breeder]

I am not making goat jokes but if you are doing pretty good on the goats, why change. I understand you wanting to try the steers but i don't think you can make as much as you are expecting.

 

[BC]

Your idea is good, just a little overly optimistic I think. Cattle in East Texas will only gain about 1 lb/day on summer grass without supplement. You are looking at about 250 lbs of gain according to your time frame. Calves just cannot utilize tough summer grass as well as older animals.

Have you considered taking the bigger place and planting ryegrass and clover. Use the smaller place to turnout and doctor the in coming cattle that are bought in December and January. Then move all of the steers on the ryegrass and clover. You can graze it and the warm season grass that follows it until june or possible July depending on the year (like this one). Gains of this type of situation will be 2.5 lbs/ day or better.

If you go the buy in spring program, buy a yearling with a little age instead of a fresh, weaned calf. Plan on needing to provide some protein to help digest mature grass. You may also want to stock a little heavier. You are running a 400 to 500 lb animal at the rate most people are running a cow and calf.

 

[dyates]

Plan looks ok, but profit expectation is too high. Keep the goats and run the steers with them. Be aware that you are planning on buying in a high market and selling in a low one. If you don't want to keep the goats, I would consider stockpiling in the fall, assuming your forages are suitable for stockpiling. Buy in November, December when prices are lower and stock an appropriate number of animals for the forage you have stockpiled. You would have to do some minimal division with a simple electric fence, but you could buy in a low market and sell in a high(er) one (usually).

 

[BTRANCH]

They are right about the market being lower in the fall. Could you consider buying 10 calves and putting them on the stockpiled 30 acres, selling them in the spring when prices are starting to go up?

 

[BC]

I think what he wanted to do was get by without having to put any inputs into the calves. The trade off to that is buying on a higher market and selling on a lower one. I know some who are trying it his way, but they never get the gain they are expecting. Unless you are on a cool season annual, our Texas grasses get tough and lose quality unless you graze close, rotate often and fertilize.