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After five stops the lowest possible total is 10. The highest possible total is 60. So there is 50 possible total scores. With 30 people the odds of any two people having the same score is a little over 3 to 1. The odds of those two scores being the top two are considerable higher........ I am on the west coast it is too early for me to wrap my brain around that one.

Use the money to buy beer and who cares what the score is?
 
Jogeephus":3uo8s2ft said:
Its been a long time since I've worked with permutations but I think the answer you are looking for is 1 : 5917.

You take the number of possible outcomes, Max being 60. Subtract 1 from this and you get 59. Take 1 and divide by 59 and this is your percentage. .0169% Convert to a whole decimal number and you get .000169. Divide 1 by this and you get the 5917. Not likely but in gambling its not good odds for the house.

BTW - I reserve the right to be wrong.


:shock: :shock: :shock: Jo I have even a higher level of respect for your knowledge and intelligence! Even if you made it up, I'm still impressed as much as If you did figuring it out. If it's made up this is the finest sales job of complete shyt I may have ever seen! :lol: :lol: :lol:

My wife has PHD in the medical field, I sure she makes up words just to mess with me! She knows I don't know if it's a real word or not, I still ask her to give it to me in English to often. :lol:

For the record Jo, I'm sure it's not made up, just having some fun.
:tiphat:
 
Alan, its not made up for sure. Might have a lot of dust and cobwebs on it though. From memory, figuring like this is much easier than your mind will let it be but its been a while and I may have the formula wrong but I think this is it. That said, I'm afraid I got it wrong because of what Dave said. I didn't think about that. anything less than 10 is not possible so the number of possible answers is only 50 rather than the 60 I used. I think the math is right but the most would be 50 to account for the 10 that cannot be. In that case it would be about 1:5000 chance. Still not good odds for the house.
 
melking":iryo4k3y said:
I am not a math person, and not really all that bright but it would seem to me that at every stop you would have a chance of 15 ties (if you have 30 people) Seems like each stop starts a new randomness.

You are right and you are no dummy if you can wrap your head around that because most people can't. Many feel buying an extra lottery ticket increases their odds of winning by some significant amount and it doesn't, it just reduces the number of possible combinations by the number they purchase and this does very little for you because the odds are reset each time you gamble.
 
Jogeephus":qqh5h5uk said:
Alan, its not made up for sure. Might have a lot of dust and cobwebs on it though. From memory, figuring like this is much easier than your mind will let it be but its been a while and I may have the formula wrong but I think this is it. That said, I'm afraid I got it wrong because of what Dave said. I didn't think about that. anything less than 10 is not possible so the number of possible answers is only 50 rather than the 60 I used. I think the math is right but the most would be 50 to account for the 10 that cannot be. In that case it would be about 1:5000 chance. Still not good odds for the house.

Jo, I was sure it was not made up. I am amazed at your method and calculations for figuring it out. I consider myself pretty good at math and calculations, but that's way above my head. I was, as you know, just joking around about being made up.

After posting my thoughts on rolling a 6,7 or 8 having higher odds, it dawned on my that all 30 people have the same odds when rolling. The only variable is in adding the total of the 5 rolls up ...... So my post was pointless.
 
I understood what you meant I was just clarifying that I'm not positive this is right. The more I think about it the more the more my head hurts and I'm having bad flashbacks. I think if it were me, I'd just keep twenty nine hundred dollars in my pocket or do the beer thing.
 
Regrettably, I believe that our friend in the frozen tundra (Jogeephus) has given us the answer of "what is the odds of someone rolling the highest maximum roll" (i.e., 1/(1/49))... not "what are the odds of a tie high score, regardless of what that high score rolled" (which is the question the OP posed to the group).

Meaning, since the maximum score is 60 ... the odds are really pretty small (1/(1/49)) that this would occur. What, however, are the odds that there is a tie high score at (say) 51? However, just because you have two people tie at 51 doesn't mean that you won't have someone else score a 52 or higher.

One persons roll is not dependent upon someone else's roll. Meaning, everyone could roll the dice and get two numbers that add together to get a 6. It's not like once a score of 6 is rolled, nobody else can get that score.

So, the answer to your question is actually quite complex ... so ... I ran some numbers for you:

The odds of a 10 and a 60 are identical ... nearly 0%. The odds aren't much greater until you get to a combined score of 24 or 46, in which case, the odds of totaling either one is almost 1%.

To get a 25 or 45 would be 1.4% (approx)
To get a 26 or 44 would be 1.9%
To get a 27 or 43 would be 2.5%
To get a 28 or 42 would be 3.3%
To get a 29 or 41 would be 4.0%
To get a 30 or 40 would be 4.8%
To get a 31 or 39 would be 5.6%
To get a 32 or 38 would be 6.3%
To get a 33 or 37 would be 6.8%
To get a 34 or 36 would be 7.2%
To get a 35 would be 7.3%

So, restated, the odds that any given person would get a 35 for five rolls of two dice each roll is about 7.3%.

Figuring out the odds of a tie at any given number, where there was no higher combined roll is a whole other math problem.

The correct answer: Find an easy tie breaker and/or use the money to buy more beer.
 
Really hoping that I don't hear a news story about a hay ride and someone drinking too much beer winds up killing someone else over a dice game. What are the odds of this happening?
 
backhoeboogie":1cd11m02 said:
Really hoping that I don't hear a news story about a hay ride and someone drinking too much beer winds up killing someone else over a dice game. What are the odds of this happening?

27.346879881462168%
 
backhoeboogie":21wehkno said:
Really hoping that I don't hear a news story about a hay ride and someone drinking too much beer winds up killing someone else over a dice game. What are the odds of this happening?

That depends on your location. Three variables involved. The odds of a hay ride even happening go up and down depending on the community. Same with drinking too much beer. Also too much beer needs to be defined (is there such a thing as too much beer?). Then killing some one over a dice game. How were they killed? Was it an accident? Did it look like an accident? What was the dice game? And how much money was involved? Simply put, the more beer and the more money involved the more likely someone gets killed, hayride or no hayride.
 
Dave":iz77coe1 said:
backhoeboogie":iz77coe1 said:
Really hoping that I don't hear a news story about a hay ride and someone drinking too much beer winds up killing someone else over a dice game. What are the odds of this happening?

That depends on your location. Three variables involved. The odds of a hay ride even happening go up and down depending on the community. Same with drinking too much beer. Also too much beer needs to be defined (is there such a thing as too much beer?). Then killing some one over a dice game. How were they killed? Was it an accident? Did it look like an accident? What was the dice game? And how much money was involved? Simply put, the more beer and the more money involved the more likely someone gets killed, hayride or no hayride.
Will the brand of beer affect the odds?
 
Heck with the beer, pour me a glass of whiskey. A tall one. My head hurts.

Walnut, I agree with what you said. Probability decreases on either end and my figuring isn't taking that into account.
 
Jogeephus":3jyoypzu said:
Heck with the beer, pour me a glass of whiskey. A tall one. My head hurts.

+1

Jogeephus":3jyoypzu said:
Walnut, I agree with what you said. Probability decreases on either end and my figuring isn't taking that into account.

The OP's question was far more complicated than I think he thought it was...

:tiphat:
 
Generally, these bets get laid off on an insurance company. You can be assured Warren Buffet has laid off that one billion for a perfect NCAA bracket bet on some insurance company. Talk to an agent and they'll calculate the odds for you, and charge you accordingly. But I prefer the "buy beer" option.
 
millstreaminn":3n3qqz14 said:
We are doing a charity event this summer where we will take 30 people on a wagon ride around our town. We plan to stop at 5 locations, where each person will shoot 2 dice and the highest total at the end of the ride will win $100.00. What are the chances of a tie?
One way to find out is go to Invisible Castle and run a test on their random dice roller. I did, ran it 100 times and came up with 21 ties. So, about a 20% chance for a tie.
 

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