Market is rough in MS!

[JParrott]

October is traditionally the worst time of year to sell. Hold them till spring, or buy cattle now.

Yep, I thought this was common knowledge? Fall has the lowest prices due to large supply low demand and Spring has the highest due to low supply and high demand.

That aside, we'll sell ours next month or the beginning of December. Moving to fall calving over the next few years to switch to spring sales.

 

[Stocker Steve]

October is traditionally the worst time of year to sell. Hold them till spring, or buy cattle now.

Yep, I thought this was common knowledge? Fall has the lowest prices due to large supply low demand and Spring has the highest due to low supply and high demand.

Costs alot to winter calves in the north. Not practical for many to hold them.

 

[Dave]

There is always opportunity in the market. Right now a person can buy good young cows cheap that will be producing when the market swings up in a year or two. Also back grounding light calves. The price spread is the key to that type of operation. Every area has an unfair advantage. Figure out what the unfair advantage is in your area and capitalize on it.

 

[skyhightree1]

October is traditionally the worst time of year to sell. Hold them till spring, or buy cattle now.

Yep, I thought this was common knowledge? Fall has the lowest prices due to large supply low demand and Spring has the highest due to low supply and high demand.

Costs alot to winter calves in the north. Not practical for many to hold them.

Ive never liked wintering calves

 

[skyhightree1]

There is always opportunity in the market. Right now a person can buy good young cows cheap that will be producing when the market swings up in a year or two. Also back grounding light calves. The price spread is the key to that type of operation. Every area has an unfair advantage. Figure out what the unfair advantage is in your area and capitalize on it.

Bottle calves are $5.00-10.00 a head here so I have been thinking about getting maybe 50 and fooling with them. I have the hay grain and time milk replacer will be about 2 bags per calf but I can probably come out ahead on them. They have been selling nice pairs for 675 bucks usually. If I wanted to buy back in cheap that would be the way to go.

 

[HDRider]

It is going to improve or it is going to become an extinct vocation. It just can not stay like this.

Take a look in your crystal ball and give us a prediction. You been around, and you are a thinking man. Where do you see this going over the next 10 years.

I say we will have some doing it for lifestyle/tax reasons, and then some really big producers, (and even those might just be ways to wash money), and then we will have imports from countries that can produce at a fraction of US costs.

The big unknown to me is fake meat.

 

[HDRider]

The future , for the small guy, is to gather as producers and offer potloads of like cattle. 52000lbs will sell better than 1 or 2 at a time, fill the orders , with less effort. Get with your neighbor, put a group together, and cut the sharks out.

You'd do better trying to rope rabbits here. People just will not work together.

 

[Bright Raven]

It is going to improve or it is going to become an extinct vocation. It just can not stay like this.

Take a look in your crystal ball and give us a prediction. You been around, and you are a thinking man. Where do you see this going over the next 10 years.

I say we will have some doing it for lifestyle/tax reasons, and then some really big producers, (and even those might just be ways to wash money), and then we will have imports from countries that can produce at a fraction of US costs.

The big unknown to me is fake meat.

I will address "fake meat" first. On a much longer term basis than 10 years, the human population will depend on the synthesis and formulation of foods. You can call it fake if you want but it will be the way of the future. It would be a discredit to the capabilities of the human race to think that they cannot produce a product that will be superior to whole animal products. Driving this science and technology will be economics and the need to feed a world population. What we see today in terms of "fake meat" is tantamount to mankind picking up the first stone and using it as a projectile.

In regard to the market, I think there will be at least a couple more rallies. As I mentioned, in terms of the real value of money, the high tide has gone out. It might be wise to cash in on the next rally.

One last point, like every major industry in America during my lifetime, it has been forced off these shores because the standard of living in other parts of the world allow them to produce a cheaper product than we can here. That will happen with beef. Capitalism is ruthless and without a conscience. Money is KING, not patriotism, human welfare or old guys who love cows.

PS: Anecdotal. My son was a protein specialist at the University of Louisville Medical School before he went to Vanderbilt to get his PhD in molecular biology. He knows how organic compounds are synthesized. His biggest investments are in companies that are working on synthesis and formulation of foods.

 

[Stocker Steve]

We have made large recent "sales" of pork to the Chinks. Mostly for delivery next year. I assume they will cancel these orders if Trump does not cave on a partial trade agreement... Meanwhile back in overfly country - - we are not exporting enough beef to support the hobby rancher lifestyle.

So most of the predictions are not so promising:
1) export more beef
2) sell cows & restock pastures with deer and hogs
3) plant trees

 

[bball]

We have made large recent "sales" of pork to the Chinks. Mostly for delivery next year. I assume they will cancel these orders if Trump does not cave on a partial trade agreement... Meanwhile back in overfly country - - we are not exporting enough beef to support the hobby rancher lifestyle.

So most of the predictions are not so promising:
1) export more beef
2) sell cows & restock pastures with deer and hogs
3) plant trees

To further support this statement....time to go big or get the h*ll out. Writing is on the wall for the little guy.

Despite that overall 20-year decline, the latest census data on cow operations shows growth in every size category above 50 cows. The category of operations with 50-99 cows increased 11%, the 100-499 cow category increased 13%, the 500-999 cow category increased 7%, and the category of operations with more than 1,000 cows increased 8%.

Those increases in the upper size categories means more of the nation's beef cows are in larger herds. For instance, the total U.S. beef cow inventory was 31.722 in 2017, and 27% of those cows were in herds under 50 head. Another 19% of the cows were in herds of 50 to 99 cows. Therefore, the breakdown included 46% of the cows were in herds under 100 cows, with 54% of the cows in herds greater than 100 head.

https://www.drovers.com/article/bigger-herds-more-beef-operations-census-says

 

[bball]

It is going to improve or it is going to become an extinct vocation. It just can not stay like this.

Take a look in your crystal ball and give us a prediction. You been around, and you are a thinking man. Where do you see this going over the next 10 years.

I say we will have some doing it for lifestyle/tax reasons, and then some really big producers, (and even those might just be ways to wash money), and then we will have imports from countries that can produce at a fraction of US costs.

The big unknown to me is fake meat.

I will address "fake meat" first. On a much longer term basis than 10 years, the human population will depend on the synthesis and formulation of foods. You can call it fake if you want but it will be the way of the future. It would be a discredit to the capabilities of the human race to think that they cannot produce a product that will be superior to whole animal products. Driving this science and technology will be economics and the need to feed a world population. What we see today in terms of "fake meat" is tantamount to mankind picking up the first stone and using it as a projectile.

In regard to the market, I think there will be at least a couple more rallies. As I mentioned, in terms of the real value of money, the high tide has gone out. It might be wise to cash in on the next rally.

One last point, like every major industry in America during my lifetime, it has been forced off these shores because the standard of living in other parts of the world allow them to produce a cheaper product than we can here. That will happen with beef. Capitalism is ruthless and without a conscience. Money is KING, not patriotism, human welfare or old guys who love cows.

PS: Anecdotal. My son was a protein specialist at the University of Louisville Medical School before he went to Vanderbilt to get his PhD in molecular biology. He knows how organic compounds are synthesized. His biggest investments are in companies that are working on synthesis and formulation of foods.

One of the best posts on here in a long time. Just trying to figure out which has less of a conscience; the universe or capitalism? ;-)

 

[Bright Raven]

Take a look in your crystal ball and give us a prediction. You been around, and you are a thinking man. Where do you see this going over the next 10 years.

I say we will have some doing it for lifestyle/tax reasons, and then some really big producers, (and even those might just be ways to wash money), and then we will have imports from countries that can produce at a fraction of US costs.

The big unknown to me is fake meat.

I will address "fake meat" first. On a much longer term basis than 10 years, the human population will depend on the synthesis and formulation of foods. You can call it fake if you want but it will be the way of the future. It would be a discredit to the capabilities of the human race to think that they cannot produce a product that will be superior to whole animal products. Driving this science and technology will be economics and the need to feed a world population. What we see today in terms of "fake meat" is tantamount to mankind picking up the first stone and using it as a projectile.

In regard to the market, I think there will be at least a couple more rallies. As I mentioned, in terms of the real value of money, the high tide has gone out. It might be wise to cash in on the next rally.

One last point, like every major industry in America during my lifetime, it has been forced off these shores because the standard of living in other parts of the world allow them to produce a cheaper product than we can here. That will happen with beef. Capitalism is ruthless and without a conscience. Money is KING, not patriotism, human welfare or old guys who love cows.

PS: Anecdotal. My son was a protein specialist at the University of Louisville Medical School before he went to Vanderbilt to get his PhD in molecular biology. He knows how organic compounds are synthesized. His biggest investments are in companies that are working on synthesis and formulation of foods.

One of the best posts on here in a long time. Just trying to figure out which has less of a conscience; the universe or capitalism? ;-)

I can answer that. The Universe.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I don't think we should get bigger because others are. We all have a certain amount of resources available - - land, grass, capital, labor. The questions are what are your goals, which resource is your limitation, and how do you optimize it ?

I think I would do better with fewer cows, but I am often an outlier. :nod:

 

[Luckiamute]

Lease/rent your cattle and hay ground to industrial hemp growers. They're looking for all the land they can find, especially anything with water rights. Just read a story tonight that quoted someone saying quality industrial hemp can fetch from $20,000 to $80,000 an acre. You can do better leasing out your land if you're serious about making money. Licensed hemp acreage increased 363.1 percent in the U.S. from 2018 to 2019. This is the future of agriculture, whether we agree with it or not.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Most of us will not be running over 1,000 cows and making a living off them alone. I think there are a couple sweet spots for cow/calf enterprises. We see alot of 30 cow one bull herds, which seem to fit on an ex family dairy farm. Kind of begs the question on how you are going to make money with 30 beef cows, when you could not make any with 30 dairy cows? Good grazing skills and buying in hay could give you an advantage.

Traditional FINBIN data says there is some cost benefit to scaling a grass and hay operation bigger than that - - more like 75 to 100 cows. In our area over 100 cows could push you into the TMR and semi truck world. Then you get to start the tractor and the skid steer every morning, and haul feed in the afternoon. Cheap by products and a class C license could give you an advantage.

 

[callmefence]

Lease/rent your cattle and hay ground to industrial hemp growers. They're looking for all the land they can find, especially anything with water rights. Just read a story tonight that quoted someone saying quality industrial hemp can fetch from $20,000 to $80,000 an acre. You can do better leasing out your land if you're serious about making money. Licensed hemp acreage increased 363.1 percent in the U.S. from 2018 to 2019. This is the future of agriculture, whether we agree with it or not.

Sounds like the ostrich industry in the 80s

 

[Caustic Burno]

Ostrich was probably more profitable at the time.

 

[JParrott]

It is going to improve or it is going to become an extinct vocation. It just can not stay like this.

Take a look in your crystal ball and give us a prediction. You been around, and you are a thinking man. Where do you see this going over the next 10 years.

I say we will have some doing it for lifestyle/tax reasons, and then some really big producers, (and even those might just be ways to wash money), and then we will have imports from countries that can produce at a fraction of US costs.

The big unknown to me is fake meat.

I will address "fake meat" first. On a much longer term basis than 10 years, the human population will depend on the synthesis and formulation of foods. You can call it fake if you want but it will be the way of the future. It would be a discredit to the capabilities of the human race to think that they cannot produce a product that will be superior to whole animal products. Driving this science and technology will be economics and the need to feed a world population. What we see today in terms of "fake meat" is tantamount to mankind picking up the first stone and using it as a projectile.

In regard to the market, I think there will be at least a couple more rallies. As I mentioned, in terms of the real value of money, the high tide has gone out. It might be wise to cash in on the next rally.

One last point, like every major industry in America during my lifetime, it has been forced off these shores because the standard of living in other parts of the world allow them to produce a cheaper product than we can here. That will happen with beef. Capitalism is ruthless and without a conscience. Money is KING, not patriotism, human welfare or old guys who love cows.

PS: Anecdotal. My son was a protein specialist at the University of Louisville Medical School before he went to Vanderbilt to get his PhD in molecular biology. He knows how organic compounds are synthesized. His biggest investments are in companies that are working on synthesis and formulation of foods.

This is why I posted the question I did a few weeks ago. I think it's just a matter of time until the small farmer will only exist as a hobby or they'll only be producing for a corporate entity with a set demand. Synthetic food production is coming and without a significant change to the population level, it'll be the way things are done in the future and I expect it within the next 20 years - certainly within most of our lifetimes. Folks said plastics and other synthetic materials wouldn't displace certain materials or work in place of metals for certain applications. All it takes is someone to figure out how to build a better mousetrap.

Hemp production sounds nice but I think that supply will soon outpace demand and it won't be profitable enough to sustain unless the market grows beyond expectations. We'll be downsizing to ~120 acres and 30-35 head within the next five years. If (when) prices drop below $100 cwt, it won't be worth the hassle - and that's with the land and cattle already paid for.

If your son has a line on who's likely to become the next or get bought out by Tyson, JBS, Cargill, or Smithfield's in synthetic foods - pass it along. I'd like to diversify my lackluster portfolio.