Long Term Investment

[Dave]

Honestly the idea of heifers don't me nearly as much as the comment about them being real expensive. With the present market how long does it take to pay for a "real expensive" heifer? Paying last year's prices for heifers in this year's market doesn't make any sense to me. And I am certain that there are lots of people out there who would be willing to sell at last year's price.
As for the heifers themselves..... as long as they are bred to the right kind of bull (calving ease deluxe) and have a good, maybe great vaccination program and the seller can show prove of both of these, the heifers don't scare me. I should add as a disclaimer that I sell bred heifers as my main cattle enterprise.

 

[u4411clb]

I suggest you cost average into that many heifers. Even if you can afford them all at once you are buying into a falling market. Meaning if you buy 1/3 now and the prices drop next year and you buy 1/3 and the prices drop the year after you can buy another 1/3. That will greatly increase your chances of making money in my opinion. Like the above guy said if you bought all at once last year you would probably never make any money off of those heifers. But if you split it you would make money more than likely off the ones you bought this year and going forward. You decide allot of the profit in a cow when you buy her as much as how you raise and care for her.

 

[tja477t]

why put all your eggs in one basket. can you imagine if the heifers were bred wrong and they all throw big calves. if you think they are good heifers, buy a dozen or so. then purchase some bred cows or 3 in 1's.

 

[u4411clb]

But just on the basis of heifers in general I have no problem as long as they are part brahman have pelvic measurements are old enough and big enough and are bred to proven low birth weight angus, Jersey, or Longhorn bulls. I wouldn't have an issue calving out a large number and of course like everyone said good vaccination plan and facilities. And commercial cows in general right now should not be expensive.

 

[cfpinz]

Honestly the idea of heifers don't me nearly as much as the comment about them being real expensive. With the present market how long does it take to pay for a "real expensive" heifer? Paying last year's prices for heifers in this year's market doesn't make any sense to me. And I am certain that there are lots of people out there who would be willing to sell at last year's price.

No kidding.

From the sales I've been to in our area, bull/cow prices are off a bit but nowhere near where they should be proportionately. I think this fall, and the next year or two thereafter, will be good times to buy in. I wish now that I would have sold more of my older cows last year, but it's hard to part ways with any of them when the calves were fetching $1500 at weaning.

I'm curious as to what F1's the OP is referring to. There's a bit of learning curve difference between a group of baldies versus a group of tigerstripes.

 

[TCRanch]

Idk if I just got some exceptional heifers last yr but I bought and calved out 65 head. Never calved out anything in my life. Ended up losing 2 calves, 1 doa and 1 that just had no will to live. I think if you can get the financing in order for the F1s then go for it. Don't be scared away by the heifer comments.

Thanks for that post. If x doesn't appreciate it, I do. I've got my first 9 hd of them to calve this fall, but I've been told the horror stories, not so much the success stories.

That's because if you're going to have a problem it's usually with a heifer. Think little teenage girls having babies. And yet I calve them out every year, generally with great success but there have been exceptions. I think the main reason for the horror stories is because so many heifers are purchased without the buyer really knowing their background; whether they've been pelvic measured, bred to a calving ease bull (preferably not before they're 15 months), have been fully vaccinated & are in good condition - and that's assuming the seller is honest.

 

[GRTiger85]

watched open F1 tigerstripe heifers sale for $3950 a head this past weekend....crazy.

 

[js1234]

Calving heifers isn't that hard.
Horror stories are more fun to tell.
Expensive is a relative term. What will the marketing plan be for these F1's and/or their calves? How much of a premium are they over other heifers and how much better is the rate of return?

 

[Cross-7]

Calving heifers isn't that hard.
Horror stories are more fun to tell.
Expensive is a relative term. What will the marketing plan be for these F1's and/or their calves? How much of a premium are they over other heifers and how much better is the rate of return?

That was my question
On leased pasture what's the benefit of expensive heifers
If the plan was to sell fancy first calf pairs for a premium I'd sure be cautious in the current market
If the plan is to hang on to them, then I see no real benefit to starting with top of the line cattle
As JS asked
What's the rate of return on high dollar heifers
Of course there are lots a folks smarter than me cashing big checks too

 

[plumber_greg]

I guess I'm different than most. I like to fool with cattle. I enjoy the work.
Yes, heifers can be more work, but making a cow take a calf, watching them, just generally taking the time to make it all work. That's the best time of the year. I calved 119 heifers one time, full time off farm job. Instead of taking lunch, I ran home and checked heifers. Lost a few, I sure, no "train wreck". I also calved in the middle of the winter, off season, "only 9 hours a day" at work.
Why try to build a cowherd starting several generations behind with older cows? Now if you have no intention of saving heifers, that's ok.
Quality always costs the most at the first, but you will always sell quality later. People that are mostly cattle traders, visit salebarns looking for bargins, ask me how I can ask so much for my cows or heifers I sell. I tell them if you want salebarn prices, go to the salebarn. I always sell out, and am told that they looked a long time and these were the best they had seen.
If you are young, go for it. It's someone else's money your gambling. That is why they are charging you interest.
Stay with it for 10 years, they'll be paid for and you will have something others will wonder how you got where you are at.
Stay out of the salebarns, buy from reprtable people who know their cattle and raise and calve heifers of their own, and you'll be fine. gs

 

[littletom]

The only people that hit it big, made a big risk getting there. The convers is....... the people that go broke, did so from a big risk. I guess you need to ask yourself do you feel lucky? High priced heifers, tons of things that could go wrong. That includes losing your lease, and having a pot and a half of high priced heifers to take somewhere. I can tell you, that's not a risk I would take. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't.

This is what I was thinking. The bigger the risk bigger the reward, or harder faster you fall. I was once told to pencil out worst case. If that works you will be ok. Was good advice as I have been there. There are all sorts of people I have one friend that has lived on the edge business and risk wise for several years. He has built it up enough from scratch to weather many trainwrecks now. Without those big risks he would be just getting by now. I couldn't sleep at night, but that's me. Good luck to you!

 

[SJB]

I work for a man that has built a very successful business. About 250 employees. He has made a career out of avoiding risk like it was the plague.

If he takes a risk, it's a very calculated one.

 

[Stocker Steve]

From the sales I've been to in our area, bull/cow prices are off a bit but nowhere near where they should be proportionately. I think this fall, and the next year or two thereafter, will be good times to buy in. I wish now that I would have sold more of my older cows last year, but it's hard to part ways with any of them when the calves were fetching $1500 at weaning.

2X
Bred heifer sales were strong here last fall, but soft this spring.
Do you also think 2016-2017 will be a good time to upgrade genetics?

 

[cfpinz]

From the sales I've been to in our area, bull/cow prices are off a bit but nowhere near where they should be proportionately. I think this fall, and the next year or two thereafter, will be good times to buy in. I wish now that I would have sold more of my older cows last year, but it's hard to part ways with any of them when the calves were fetching $1500 at weaning.

2X
Bred heifer sales were strong here last fall, but soft this spring.
Do you also think 2016-2017 will be a good time to upgrade genetics?

Short answer: Yes.

Long answer, depends on how and where things level off at. Any fool could have made money the past few years with a cow/calf operation, purse strings should start to tighten up as folks sell off this year's calf crop. The writing is on the wall, but some folks are too ignorant to read it until it's written on their sale ticket from the barn.

I look for it to bottom out this fall, stay low thru the winter and rebound ever so slightly in the spring. Ideally, I'd like to see 5wts and 6wts in the $2 range, that leaves room for all involved to make money if they know what they're doing, and keeps the end product at a reasonable price point for the consumer. I'm hoping they're back up in that range by spring of 2018, we'll see. I also figured the market would crash to $2 last spring, but it held on a bit longer and fell a bit farther. Still a far cry from the 2 to 3 more years of inflated prices most folks were preaching.

I'd say 2017 would be a good year to buy genetics, possibly late this fall. 2016/2017 will also be a damn good year to hold back heifers, if you've got them.

That's my opinion, take it for what you paid for it. That and $1 might get you a cup of coffee!

 

[Stocker Steve]

Market here has been inconsistent here the last couple months. A few folks cleaned out their back grounding yards and did not restock.
I plan to cull cows hard this fall, and then buy back some better stock in 2017.
I do OK on home raised heifers, but purchased ones seem to struggle. I will retain some AI heifers if calf prices are soft.