Is china the new us for world beef trade?

[Sostra]

https://www.beefcentral.com/trade/is-china-the-new-us-for-world-beef-trade/

After reading this article, I have been thinking about the possibility of China to impact the world beef markets the way they did for base metals and iron ore. Copper for example has been trading in a narrow range $0,6-1,0/lb for sixty years. Miners cut costs to the bone and managed to make a living. Come year 2004 and prices started climbing. They went even higher after 2009 when all the world was in a recession. The average yearly price for 2013 (I think) was $4/lb. You can imagine the windfall profits.
So - do you think a similar scenario could happen when a percentage of Chinese citizens discover that beef is the real thing?

 

[Jogeephus]

Sounds reasonable and I doubt many Chinese are vegan or are worried about flatulence in cattle.

 

[Bright Raven]

Lots of negative news circulating on the livestock industry. If you do it for lifestyle, you are good to go. If you do it as a primary occupation, it is a tough path to walk.

 

[Redgully]

All i know is all the big wig mining heavyweights here are investing big money in cattle and these people always know where the markets worth investing in are.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

All i know is all the big wig mining heavyweights here are investing big money in cattle and these people always know where the markets worth investing in are.

Pot stock.

 

[True Grit Farms]

I've been really happy with what my last two loads of calves have brought at the sale barn. I think it's a great time to be in the cattle business and see nothing but positives for a couple of more years.

 

[Lucky]

The cattle business can still be profitable you just have to adjust your operation to what makes money.

 

[CattleMan1920]

I've been really happy with what my last two loads of calves have brought at the sale barn. I think it's a great time to be in the cattle business and see nothing but positives for a couple of more years.

I am no expert on this, but China is trying to manage their people very carefully, there are a lot of hungry bellies to feed, and I doubt they will allow precious land to be used for pasture and wide open ranges. They are most likely going to import a LOT of beef moving forward.

I'm on the same page with True Grit, the beef cattle business has a bright outlook, at least for the next 10-12 years. Quality is key however, I don't think premiums will be paid for an average product. Producers will need to bring their game and deliver what is being demanded which is high-quality choice and prime.

With disappearing pasture and the high barriers to entry in the cattle business, the prices for beef can only go higher long term.

 

[jltrent]

I have growed up heifers for the last few years for replacements and not far off from having all 3-7 year old cows. If they bring anything I should be alright for 4-5 years on cows. It seems every strip of land around is loaded with cattle and bout everywhere I go. THere better be a market or there will be a glut.

 

[CattleMan1920]

I have growed up heifers for the last few years for replacements and not far off from having all 3-7 year old cows. If they bring anything I should be alright for 4-5 years on cows. The cows I have growed for the last three years have some nice calves and looking good. A lot of work and cost in the cattle business.

They are gaining wealth rapidly.

Even pork and rice won't cut it, they want beef.

They slaughter, what, 15-20 million dogs a year for protein? They make the consumption of dog meat by South Korea look paltry by comparison.

It would scare the sh.t out of most people if they really knew how fast the Chinese population could draw down the beef supply in the United States if possible.

Bottom line, if all of us in the U.S. beef industry produced at full capacity, we still wouldn't make a dent in what they could consume.

 

[greybeard]

I read an article probably 5-6 years ago, that the Red Chinese were buying cattle semen and embryos thru a 3rd party in Australia at (then) an astonishing rate.

The whole Asian culture is one of patience. It will take them years, maybe decades, but their (Red China) stated goal is to become 1st ag independent (no grain or meat imports) then to become the predominant global agriculture exporter.. just as they have become the biggest exporter of electronics. They're an ancient culture....they're in no hurry.
China has plenty of land, and even with a billion population, still only 45 people per sq mile. The US has 84 people per sq mile.

 

[CattleMan1920]

I read an article probably 5-6 years ago, that the Red Chinese were buying cattle semen and embryos thru a 3rd party in Australia at (then) an astonishing rate.

The whole Asian culture is one of patience. It will take them years, maybe decades, but their (Red China) stated goal is to become 1st ag independent (no grain or meat imports) then to become the predominant global agriculture exporter.. just as they have become the biggest exporter of electronics. They're an ancient culture....they're in no hurry.
China has plenty of land, and even with a billion population, still only 45 people per sq mile. The US has 84 people per sq mile.

I think another scenario is that they buy large U.S. farms through shell corporations.

That really would be the easiest way to do things, they can buy dairies cheap right now, and pick up lots of smaller farms that are squeezed.

It would be nice if the U.S. sellers could hold out for a war price, but that's not always possible.

 

[ga.prime]

China has plenty of land, and even with a billion population, still only 45 people per sq mile. The US has 84 people per sq mile.

China is 3.7 million square miles, U.S.A. is 3.8 million square miles.

 

[Silver]

China has plenty of land, and even with a billion population, still only 45 people per sq mile. The US has 84 people per sq mile.

I think you are mistaken. China has about 375 people per sq. mile vs. 92 for the US according to what I could google up.

 

[Silver]

China has plenty of land, and even with a billion population, still only 45 people per sq mile. The US has 84 people per sq mile.

China is 3.7 million square miles, U.S.A. is 3.8 million square miles.

I wonder what changed? I'll have to do more googling. I was always taught that the US was smaller than China.

 

[Redgully]

Australia is nearly 3 million square miles but most of that is waste land!

 

[sstterry]

China has plenty of land, and even with a billion population, still only 45 people per sq mile. The US has 84 people per sq mile.

China is 3.7 million square miles, U.S.A. is 3.8 million square miles.

I wonder what changed? I'll have to do more googling. I was always taught that the US was smaller than China.

You are not considering Alaska and to a small extent, Hawaii.

 

[jltrent]

It would be hard to prove, but I bet 350 million Americans total will weigh more than one billion Chinese and consume more food. The Chinese have not acquired a taste, for the most part, for beef. They claim and fish about all the Ocean around them and a bowl of rice will fill them up. Their market is very small for beef and usually when they buy it is cheap. India another large population country doesn't eat cows as their believe of reincarnation they might be eating a family member.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I wonder what changed? I'll have to do more googling. I was always taught that the US was smaller than China.

Canadian fake news

 

[Stocker Steve]

Not any time soon. They are happy get white meat or fish rather than all vegies. The beef over there is not vey good - - lean, offal, water buffalo...

Everyone hopes China will buy all the surplus stuff, but that is not their 5 year plan.