Future of Cattle Business

[Lucky]

I keep reading threads and hearing about how younger people can't or don't want to get into the Cattle Business. I also keep hearing about older people getting out. I can definitely see why both groups would be getting out and have my own opinions on what it takes to make it worth doing year to year. What do you guys think the reasons for both are?

I think for younger people the biggest obstacle is money and for older people it's finding decent affordable help and stubbornness that comes from owning cattle for years.

I'm in my mid forties and try to get younger people to help out when I need it but most aren't interested or only know how to use a phone or go to ball practice. I also try to help out my older neighbors any time I can but they are so hard headed unless you just start helping without asking they say no. Funny thing is I can see myself in both groups.

What do y'all think? :deadhorse:

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I think you summed it up pretty well.

 

[jltrent]

I think the problem is input cost have triple since 1990, beef in the stores has quadrupled since 1990 and cattle prices are about the same.

Cattle business is a lot of hard work making feed, fencing and all the other hundreds of jobs that go along with it. You could give somebody a farm, 150+ cows, machinery and all paid for and they would have very little if any left over at the end of the year spending very conservatively. Very little good that outweighs the bad anymore in the cattle business.........

 

[bird dog]

To go along with what trent says

Some 20+ years ago I acquired a few acres and started building my herd from 2 cows up to 10. One of the first purchases was a mid age Simbrah cow that I bought bred for $575. She was a dandy and I still have a lot of her blood in the current herd.

Fast forward to the present day where three months ago I bought a nice mid age bred braford cow for $650. The vet had her marked 4 months but she calved last week.

Do you see the problem here? Except for one spike upwards around 2014 the prices for good cows are the same as they were 20 years ago. On paper this business is horrible. In reality, its worse.

 

[JMJ Farms]

I think you're pretty well dead on jtrent. And I also think lucky is on the right track too. The fact of inputs vs prices is the single biggest factor IMO. I've got 120 momma cows. They pay their own way. They don't buy equipment. They don't pay for the farm I own. They do pay for the leases on leased farms. They do pay for the hay, minerals, seed, fertilizer, etc. They do occasionally pay for some cow panels, fencing, or maybe a water trough. There just ain't much left over.

One day I THINK I will have something to show for the struggle. If I ever liquidate everything that I own pertaining to cattle under a decent market, I should have a really good check. But right now I feel borderline stupid for even having them. I love it. But it's a lot for a little. I could've taken the money and time I've invested into my cows and done much better with numerous different things. But you can't help how you're wired.

 

[jltrent]

Good points so far......as I will add to the misery from a different angle. The American Heart association, the American Cancer Society all say that red meat causes heart disease and cancer.... as I will get back to the topic FUTURE OF CATTLE BUSINESS I don't see things changing, but the old farms will grow up without the cattle and I hate to see that. Would you recommend going into the cattle business to a family member without getting other employment?

I can't remember the song that says the farmers backs are against the wall, but the way it looks cattle farmers are.

 

[cowrancher75]

I think the problem is input cost have triple since 1990, beef in the stores has quadrupled since 1990 and cattle prices are about the same.

Cattle business is a lot of hard work making feed, fencing and all the other hundreds of jobs that go along with it. You could give somebody a farm, 150+ cows, machinery and all paid for and they would have very little if any left over at the end of the year spending very conservatively. Very little good that outweighs the bad anymore in the cattle business.........

you have to be one of the worst operators in the world for that to be true.

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

I think the problem is input cost have triple since 1990, beef in the stores has quadrupled since 1990 and cattle prices are about the same.

Cattle business is a lot of hard work making feed, fencing and all the other hundreds of jobs that go along with it. You could give somebody a farm, 150+ cows, machinery and all paid for and they would have very little if any left over at the end of the year spending very conservatively. Very little good that outweighs the bad anymore in the cattle business.........

you have to be one of the worst operators in the world for that to be true.

Actually he got it nearly right except I'm down to 105 head.

 

[jltrent]

I think the problem is input cost have triple since 1990, beef in the stores has quadrupled since 1990 and cattle prices are about the same.

Cattle business is a lot of hard work making feed, fencing and all the other hundreds of jobs that go along with it. You could give somebody a farm, 150+ cows, machinery and all paid for and they would have very little if any left over at the end of the year spending very conservatively. Very little good that outweighs the bad anymore in the cattle business.........

you have to be one of the worst operators in the world for that to be true.

Bought any farm equipment, trucks, fencing, paid any property taxes, insurance (Health, property), fertilizer, lime, fuel, twine, repairs, parts, went to a fancy restaurant, hospital bills, etc. lately as I said there would be some left over, but not much.

 

[cowrancher75]

how is a young person supposed to get in when no one will cut them a break on land. very few people will 'gift' or give a really reduced price to someone willing to work the place. everyone is greedy.

now, how is a young person going to be able to afford ANYTHING that can generate an income. Everything around here is 20 acres max and thats still 500 -600k with a house. nothing fancy.

you can go to other areas and still buy good land for 2-3k per acre.. but how do you get a loan with no one backing you? no banker will give a loan unless you have the money. who is going to be able to afford a 3-400k farm to raise 40-50 hd.. if you have that and work you will make the payments.

i'm sure there are a lot of younger kids wanting to do it.. but its almost impossible to be able to buy the land, 150k in equipment, 200k in cattle, and a million dollar property.

 

[Aaron]

They pay their own way. They don't buy equipment. They don't pay for the farm I own.

I don't think that satisfies the requirement for the former to be true.

 

[cowrancher75]

I think the problem is input cost have triple since 1990, beef in the stores has quadrupled since 1990 and cattle prices are about the same.

Cattle business is a lot of hard work making feed, fencing and all the other hundreds of jobs that go along with it. You could give somebody a farm, 150+ cows, machinery and all paid for and they would have very little if any left over at the end of the year spending very conservatively. Very little good that outweighs the bad anymore in the cattle business.........

you have to be one of the worst operators in the world for that to be true.

Bought any farm equipment, trucks, fencing, paid any property taxes, insurance (Health, property), repairs, parts, went to a fancy restaurant, hospital bills, etc. lately as I said there would be some left over, but not much.

no mortgage with 150 brood i'd feel rich.. what would you be spending 8k'ish a month on?

 

[jltrent]

you have to be one of the worst operators in the world for that to be true.

Bought any farm equipment, trucks, fencing, paid any property taxes, insurance (Health, property), repairs, parts, went to a fancy restaurant, hospital bills, etc. lately as I said there would be some left over, but not much.

no mortgage with 150 brood i'd feel rich.. what would you be spending 8k'ish a month on?

I could set here a while and make you a good list as I know cattle farming. I have been hard at it since I first drove a tractor at age 5 (big for my age) Bottom line is I could not live on 150 cows if that was all the income I had.

 

[bird dog]

If you have to borrow money to buy land, it will never work.

If you have money to invest in land and make cattle part of that investment, the cattle will help pay the bills while the land value appreciates. Cash out when you get old to fund your retirement or as in a lot of us, you cut back to a handful because you enjoy it and pocket the rest.

 

[Aaron]

Everything around here is 20 acres max and thats still 500 -600k with a house. nothing fancy. We call those ranchettes, or hobby farms. Lots of money with no plans of it ever being a viable business

no banker will give a loan unless you have the money. who is going to be able to afford a 3-400k farm to raise 40-50 hd..
No banker will even take you seriously if you start using cattle numbers like that for a viable business.

People seem to fail to realize that 50% + of all the arable acres out there have been priced out of cattle production. Unless of course there is a hidden pot of gold buried on the property. When you start paying thousands per acre and new machinery for 40 cows, your buying yourself a job - something to kill time.

 

[southernultrablack]

I'm 38 years old and have had cattle for a few years now. As a young person I can tell you it is tough. I get little shirt pocket patches to run cattle on and sometimes get them for free,just have to beat down the brush and briars. Even with minimal rents I still have to work an extra job to fund the cattle and equipment until I get them to where they pay for themselves. I did go the registered and more expensive cattle route though.

 

[5S Cattle]

Hard to find any land to run anything on around here. Big guys keep getting bigger, can't get your foot in the door

 

[Bigfoot]

Our numbers will continue to shrink, and imports will continue to grow. See it as being phased out. Used to be a thriving garment industry in our little town. Even made shoes here. Everybody knows where that went, and how it went. Beef will be no different. I ate at what is presumably a nice steak house tonight. It's pretty rare for me to do that. I'm out of town on business. The group went, so I went. The steak was less about the cut/quality/tenderness, and more about herbs and spices. I'm not even sure what I ate. Everyone was very satisfied with their meal, so I guess at the end of the day that's what really matters to folks.

There's an old man lived a couple doors down from me. Hes in a nursing home now. I go see him occasionally. He worked in the shoe factory his whole life. Hit SS age simultaneously with the plant closing. All his fingers have a weird crooked shape. He did some kind of final fitting of the sole. He was always proud of his hands. Said they got that way making an honest living. I get his point, but it'd be lost on many. We'll all end the same way. Maybe worse.

 

[Brute 23]

My prediction is no midsize producers. There will be micro ranches with a couple head "in the back yard" and large operations. It will be a timing game if you can stay in long enough to reap the benefits of every one getting out.

Leasing is the future because most producers will not be able to afford the land.

 

[Stocker Steve]

There will continue to be small hobby operators. A new one moved in across the road from me. He is working hard building good fence, but then stocking with horned Highlander cows. :???:

There will continue to be big time operators who inherit land or make big $$$ off oil or whatever... Lifestyle guys with new top of the line trucks. :cowboy:

The middle is feeling the most pain from high input costs. There are ways to make it work - - but it takes more than hard work in the pasture. :nod:
1) direct marketing meat
2) leveraging leased assets
3) selling seedstock
4) running low input beef as a sideline to a cropping operation
5) sell buy marketing
6)