Ever More Exports ?

[Stocker Steve]

Since the US pulled out of TPP, has had little success recently with bilateral agreements, and has upset the Chinese for many years to come - - we can not expect exports to Asia to solve our ag overproduction habits. Meanwhile, the talking heads are busy speculating about who might meet with someone soon... Good for them.

Is there some silver lining here, or are we in for an extended period of low prices?

 

[wbvs58]

Well you won't be getting much competition from Australia for a bit, half the cattle in North Queensland have drowned while the rest of the East Coast are frantically destocking due to a failed summer wet season with prolonged heatwave conditions and dry hot winds. We can't even grow our grain, last winters grain crop failed and this summers sorghum crop is under stress.

So there is some silver lining for you.

Ken

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

Well you won't be getting much competition from Australia for a bit, half the cattle in North Queensland have drowned while the rest of the East Coast are frantically destocking due to a failed summer wet season with prolonged heatwave conditions and dry hot winds. We can't even grow our grain, last winters grain crop failed and this summers sorghum crop is under stress.

So there is some silver lining for you.

Ken

That sounds rough Ken. Best of luck for all those affected.

 

[ddd75]

i just read beef production in the USA is up 15% since 2014

 

[Stocker Steve]

i just read beef production in the USA is up 15% since 2014

E15 is way oversold, so we have to get rid of corn somehow.

 

[Aaron]

Until the supply starts shrinking in a big way with a massive wave of old cow producers retiring, I doubt much will change. If it is a dry and tough summer this year like last year, I predict that time will be this year. Been a long time since I have seen this many old cow guys locally tired of the industry - I don't think they need much more of a push to quit.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Got a December issue of Canadian Cattlemen. A columnist was predicting $1 to $1.20 calves would push Canadian producers out... Seems a bit grim. Aren't you projecting increased exports w/ TPP?

 

[Aaron]

Got a December issue of Canadian Cattlemen. A columnist was predicting $1 to $1.20 calves would push Canadian producers out... Seems a bit grim. Aren't you projecting increased exports w/ TPP?

Oh good, you did receive it. I forgot to ask the other day. $1 to $1.20 calves would decimate the Canuck industry. $1.50 calves over a few years would push a lot out. Expenses have gone too high to go much below $2.00/lb. People can project whatever they want. Until I see the increase in the pocket, I won't get too excited. At the same time, we have a federal government here that changed their Canada food guide recommendations and pretty well declared war against protein, grain and dairy producers. You would think cows were a next level generation nuclear weapon. And governments haven't even gotten serious about talking about methane and sin taxes on beef yet - relagated to just back room whispers for now.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

We deserve these low prices.
Over production, and dealing with a communist will be our down fall.
The generation before us would have had so many trade embargoes on China for their dealings, it would of made your head spin.
It's time to run the Communist out of this country, and stop dealing with those abroad.

 

[greybeard]

Until the supply starts shrinking in a big way with a massive wave of old cow producers retiring, I doubt much will change. If it is a dry and tough summer this year like last year, I predict that time will be this year. Been a long time since I have seen this many old cow guys locally tired of the industry - I don't think they need much more of a push to quit.

Well, I don't know what effect it might have on you Aaron, but for the southern US, el Nino is supposedly now officially in effect, so it is apt to be a wet spring and summer. Oh happy happy joy joy, .... :yuck: :frowns:

 

[pricefarm]

Until the supply starts shrinking in a big way with a massive wave of old cow producers retiring, I doubt much will change. If it is a dry and tough summer this year like last year, I predict that time will be this year. Been a long time since I have seen this many old cow guys locally tired of the industry - I don't think they need much more of a push to quit.

Well, I don't know what effect it might have on you Aaron, but for the southern US, el Nino is supposedly now officially in effect, so it is apt to be a wet spring and summer. Oh happy happy joy joy, .... :yuck: :frowns:

According to that map where I live is supppse to be drier. When will that take affect?? We haven't gone more than a week without rain since June of last year. We have had more than enough rain mud is 3 ft deep and water is standing in places that it never has before.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Asked the wife if buying hay or a boat was a better investment. She hesitated - - but went with the hay. :nod: So we are still on a Get Big or Buy a Boat roll with double the production of a couple years ago. :cowboy:

Since no one loves the American capitalists anymore - - I was hoping to ship calves north to Canada and let them export finished beef to SE Asia. :idea: What do you think Aaron?

 

[TennesseeTuxedo]

We deserve these low prices.
Over production, and dealing with a communist will be our down fall.
The generation before us would have had so many trade embargoes on China for their dealings, it would of made your head spin.
It's time to run the Communist out of this country, and stop dealing with those abroad.

Don't go getting political now...

 

[Aaron]

Asked the wife if buying hay or a boat was a better investment. She hesitated - - but went with the hay. :nod: So we are still on a Get Big or Buy a Boat roll with double the production of a couple years ago. :cowboy:

Since no one loves the American capitalists anymore - - I was hoping to ship calves north to Canada and let them export finished beef to SE Asia. :idea: What do you think Aaron?

You have a lot more hope in these trade agreements then I do. Betting Sue has a better return on her nurse cows than I will ever see from TPP.

 

[Logar]

...................................
.......................................
At the same time, we have a federal government here that changed their Canada food guide recommendations and pretty well declared war against protein, grain and dairy producers. You would think cows were a next level generation nuclear weapon. And governments haven't even gotten serious about talking about methane and sin taxes on beef yet - relagated to just back room whispers for now.

The way Canadian taxes are going, plus the one million Somalis coming in to live on tax payer funded freebies and the rising cost of importing all that "healthy" food on the new food list - well, you better start growing a garden out back and dealing strictly in cash - a lot of farmers and country folks will be working well in to their 70's to keep up.

Folks in the city are going to see their food costs rise dramatically as it is imported to keep the population "healthy.

That garden might be the cheapest food in town and that cash is not traceable so you might be able to hang on for a few years if you are careful.

Cheers

 

[CattleMan1920]

We deserve these low prices.
Over production, and dealing with a communist will be our down fall.
The generation before us would have had so many trade embargoes on China for their dealings, it would of made your head spin.
It's time to run the Communist out of this country, and stop dealing with those abroad.

That sounds like a well thought out strategy. Billions of people in need of protein, and we are going to try to make it selling to the locals. Oh yeah, that's an excellent plan. I listened to someone local say "we should show those Chinese whose the boss and refuse to sell them anything from our farms" He apparently was unaware that other countries existed around the world that had the ability to raise beans and cattle. Then again, he probably thinks that the world is flat as well.

 

[sim.-ang.king]

Had no idea you raised soybeans, BH?
Only so many beans in the world, and south america isn't as a reliable source for soybeans. China would have to buy almost every bean south america can produce to meet their needs. So the rest of the world would have to get their protein source from somewhere else. The fact that China is still buying beans even with a tariff shows that the global supply outside the US isn't reliable. You also have to remember that China has to proved the needs of their citizens.

Greed got us to this point, and it's going to be a hard road to travel because of it.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Plenty of rain forest left to convert to soybeans or pasture.
Then there is eastern Europe, and East Africa, and ... Roy Rogers was wrong.
I think the US will have to play the quality protein card to have a long term chance to compete.

 

[CattleMan1920]

Plenty of rain forest left to convert to soybeans or pasture.
Then there is eastern Europe, and East Africa, and ... Roy Rogers was wrong.
I think the US will have to play the quality protein card to have a long term chance to compete.

That's how I feel about things. In economics there is the law of substitution. I truly feel that China does NOT want to deal with us. They don't want cooperation as much as they want absolute control. They want to own every aspect of the supply chain, then there will be little to no disruption.

They have a friend in Bolsonaro, he will happily burn every last inch of rainforest to the ground in order to raise beans and cattle. Sim is correct to the point that this won't be done overnight and that China still needs our beans to feed a growing population, but they are looking at every way possible to avoid buying our beans and obtain them from cheaper and more secure providers. I don't think the U.S. should bow to China, but I also don't think we should arrogantly assume that they won't find another way to feed their people.

Steve, as for other proteins, I believe that quality will be the only thing that will save us. Most luxury brands didn't suffer much in the 2008 crash, compare that to Sears or Kmart which were crushed, same with autos, the Big Three barely survived, but Porsche and Rolls Royce kept on increasing sales right through the sh.tstorm. Those examples might not make sense to some, but the U.S. needs to focus on selling the best, because competing at the low end of the totem pole has razor thin margins and is a hard game to win for many people.

 

[hurleyjd]

Russia is changing the method that their farmers farm. The farmer now makes a profit and pretty well works for them selves. China turned to Russia for beans. Also china is on a crash course to began raising their own corn and beans.