Drought Observations

[callmefence]

I never went back and checked the forum but I suspect one is referring to corner posts and the other line posts. Actually I am not
sure that corner posts were even in the conversation. Given that building fence for others is an occupation and not a licensed profession
it would hold that one should be able to build a fence to suit themselves. Most, if not all states have a Code indicating what makes a
legal fence. By any standard line or perimeter fences should be at Code or stronger. As I write this I am of the opinion cross fences are
not subject to Code. In any case a good energizer and well grounded wire will in the long run be more efficient than a stretched wire(s).
In any case wasn't it Frost who said, "Good fences make good neighbors."? and I will stand by that.

Everyone has right to be a halfazz on their own property that's for sure.

I would love to see you come put in fence post deeper then 3 feet in many areas here. The gas line they just ran on our property they had to use two huge excavators with jack hammers on them for hour to get the trench 30 inches deep. When the prior line was ran through as well as when cullinary water was installed they used a rock saw . Have corner posts we installed over 40 years ago still looking like they did when we installed them.

You want to bet on it.

 

[hurleyjd]

Just remember this.
"You can shear a sheep many times, but skin him only once."
— Mike McDermott

 

[cowgirl8]

What one guy calls price gouging the other calls trying to be profitable. When I bought my current round baler (2013ish) is was $35,000 (and I sold hay for $40). I've been pricing out a replacement and an exact replacement is now just shy of $60,000 (so should hay still cost $40???).

Tractor I paid 65,000 for 2 years ago is now almost 100,000 to replace. The list could go on and on.

And we won't even get started on the cost of things like fuel, grease, net wrap, tires (if you can even find them), etc.

And how many bales to the acre... most places around here are getting only one...

 

[callmefence]

And how many bales to the acre... most places around here are getting only one...

We averaged probably 1-1.5
I have 4 15 acre hybrid Sudan fields that last year produced between 100&120 bales each and+~ half that on second cutting. This year ~ 20 bales per cutting.
Add the fact that I have to double rake to get a reasonable windrow thats another trip across. On 4.50 diesel, 1000 fertilizer and 370.00 net wrap.
Bermuda grass was worse most of it we didn't even cut. What we did was really short and you know what that does to a bale.
. Had some Johnson grass and klien grass in locations that got a little more rain do okay.

Just remember this.
"You can shear a sheep many times, but skin him only once."
— Mike McDermott

Every sheep you shear thinks he's being skinned...
Fence

 

[Dave]

In any case wasn't it Frost who said, "Good fences make good neighbors."? and I will stand by that.

Strange. Frost obviously didn't live around here. Because I have some of the best neighbors a man could have. And as a rule we have some of the worst excuses for fences that you can find.

 

[Lee VanRoss]

Strange. Frost obviously didn't live around here. Because I have some of the best neighbors a man could have. And as a rule we have some of the worst excuses for fences that you can find.

Well, as Judy Tenuta would say, "It can happen!"

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

Our average is around 3 tons per acre per year (only one cutting UP here). I've made as good as 6.5 tons per acre and as little as 1 ton to the acre.

 

[b.duke]

Our average is around 3 tons per acre per year (only one cutting UP here). I've made as good as 6.5 tons per acre and as little as 1 ton to the acre.

probably all really good flat land with good deep soils.

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

Flat enough to farm. Shallow clay mixed topsoil (2-6") over top of pure red pottery clay.

 

[GoWyo]

Strange. Frost obviously didn't live around here. Because I have some of the best neighbors a man could have. And as a rule we have some of the worst excuses for fences that you can find.

Sounds like our neighborhood. Miles and miles of fences that are merely suggestions. I keep encouraging everyone to at least keep the corners and H braces up so there is something to tension the wire.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Our average is around 3 tons per acre per year (only one cutting UP here). I've made as good as 6.5 tons per acre and as little as 1 ton to the acre.

I kept good records by field this year. Meadows and millet were about 3.5 T per acre, and grassy uplands were about 2.4 T per acre, for the first cutting. Most fields were grazed for the second cutting. Only took 3 cuttings on one field.


With our overheads we need about 3 T/a to break even on hay, so some upland fields are renovating back to corn or millet next year. Cannot afford to mechanically harvest low production fields. We lose less by letting the cows walk on it and leaving most of the forage as fertilizer.

 

[rocfarm]

Southeast Kansas, in town we have received 3/4" since June. My small ranch 25 miles north and a little west nothing measurable since June. Just last week they put us in the extreme drought.

We've been in extreme drought since at least spring. Driest year on record in over 100 years…

 

[rocfarm]

What one guy calls price gouging the other calls trying to be profitable. When I bought my current round baler (2013ish) is was $35,000 (and I sold hay for $40). I've been pricing out a replacement and an exact replacement is now just shy of $60,000 (so should hay still cost $40???).

Tractor I paid 65,000 for 2 years ago is now almost 100,000 to replace. The list could go on and on.

And we won't even get started on the cost of things like fuel, grease, net wrap, tires (if you can even find them), etc.

Can definitely agree. All my farm projects that I put off over the last 2 years cost me 50% more to get done this last summer. Hay should get more expensive. But I try to avoid buying it. Just not cost effective for many producers.
With all the destocking going on, though, hay prices might drop over the next few hears, so I'd be ready for that if I was a hay producer. Will there be enough cattle left to eat excess hay?

 

[cowgirl8]

Can definitely agree. All my farm projects that I put off over the last 2 years cost me 50% more to get done this last summer. Hay should get more expensive. But I try to avoid buying it. Just not cost effective for many producers.
With all the destocking going on, though, hay prices might drop over the next few hears, so I'd be ready for that if I was a hay producer. Will there be enough cattle left to eat excess hay?

People remember 2014 and are hanging on for that. Its always a gamble to hang onto hay, but, seeing 2014 is still fresh on some's minds, hay might hold its value through the winter into the spring. What if we dont get rain? People also remember selling their cows before cow prices went up and the kicked themselves for jumping the gun and selling their cows for pennies and the next year they went for thousands..... 2022 is a different animal than most years. We're selling most of what we've baled but are hanging on to some just in case there is a rush this spring to hang on just a tad longer for that elusive 2014 goldrush.. If we dont sell it, we wont have to bale much next year which is fine with us also....

 

[Stocker Steve]

With all the destocking going on, though, hay prices might drop over the next few hears, so I'd be ready for that if I was a hay producer. Will there be enough cattle left to eat excess hay?

Not here, and fuel is too expensive to truck it out of the area.

So hay prices will be low until the Feds come up with another misguided shipping subsidy.

 

[wbvs58]

People remember 2014 and are hanging on for that. Its always a gamble to hang onto hay, but, seeing 2014 is still fresh on some's minds, hay might hold its value through the winter into the spring. What if we dont get rain? People also remember selling their cows before cow prices went up and the kicked themselves for jumping the gun and selling their cows for pennies and the next year they went for thousands..... 2022 is a different animal than most years. We're selling most of what we've baled but are hanging on to some just in case there is a rush this spring to hang on just a tad longer for that elusive 2014 goldrush.. If we dont sell it, we wont have to bale much next year which is fine with us also....

There is a lot of anxiety in hanging onto cattle and feeding them in dry times in the hope they will be worth a lot more. They eventually will be worth a lot more but droughts always seem to hang on that bit longer to what you expect. Making a decision early to unload is always a good strategy IMO.

Ken

 

[rocfarm]

There is a lot of anxiety in hanging onto cattle and feeding them in dry times in the hope they will be worth a lot more. They eventually will be worth a lot more but droughts always seem to hang on that bit longer to what you expect. Making a decision early to unload is always a good strategy IMO.

Ken

Talked to a guy that is quite well off close to my place last summer (he owns the local farm store, has a few thousand acres at least, etc.) One of the things he did was to destock very early and then start looking for more cattle during the depth of the drought. The interestIng thing was, he had 2 years of hay on hand. How much hay he had didn't seem to affect his decision on whether or not to destock. Don't know if he's bought new cattle yet, but I feel I learned something from that conversation. I even wonder if he sold half of his hay at a good profit later. Will ask the next time I bump into him.

 

[rocfarm]

People remember 2014 and are hanging on for that. Its always a gamble to hang onto hay, but, seeing 2014 is still fresh on some's minds, hay might hold its value through the winter into the spring. What if we dont get rain? People also remember selling their cows before cow prices went up and the kicked themselves for jumping the gun and selling their cows for pennies and the next year they went for thousands..... 2022 is a different animal than most years. We're selling most of what we've baled but are hanging on to some just in case there is a rush this spring to hang on just a tad longer for that elusive 2014 goldrush.. If we dont sell it, we wont have to bale much next year which is fine with us also....

I'm interested to see if our 'efficient' economy+impending recession will keep cattle prices from skyrocketing once the drought ends. Wondering how many cattle will flood the market from Canada and Mexico with the strong USD, and of course, the packers have their ways of keeping prices suppressed in most instances. I imagine they learned a few lessons from the high prices of the past and are trying to avoid a repeat…

 

[greybeard]

According to NOAA, we in Central Tx shouldn't expect drought relief this winter.
(It seems to fly in the face of what the persimmon seeds are showing)

Warmer and drier than normal winter for Central tx

 

[rocfarm]

According to NOAA, we in Central Tx shouldn't expect drought relief this winter.
(It seems to fly in the face of what the persimmon seeds are showing)

Warmer and drier than normal winter for Central tx

According to NOAA, we in Central Tx shouldn't expect drought relief this winter.
(It seems to fly in the face of what the persimmon seeds are showing)

Warmer and drier than normal winter for Central tx

I went with their predictions to make my original restocking decision. But I've seen them change that prediction within a week. I think it was two months ago that their long term forecast predicted neutral conditions for the fall…

Would definitely be interested in anyone's opinion in the best tool to use for making medium term stocking decisions in the farm. Heard a climatologist say Europe's method was more accurate, but haven't looked into it.

Also, the flat, unstable nature of a huge plain like we've got in the US seem to make any predictions at most about a 60/40. Not that easy to deal with…

Also trying to figure out the political side of NOAA's thinking. If they had a way to make more accurate predictions, but that would cause farmers and cattlemen to cut back to the point that they would protect themselves but might plant even less food or raise less beef, would they put that info out there? Not sure. Seems like the government has its own self-interest involved here as well…

Still have the nagging feeling that most small producers might actually just be a form of weird market subsidy, but not smart enough or knowledgeable enough to prove it…