Drought 2.0

[Stocker Steve]

It has turned snowy in central Minnesota. Road ditches are full and single strand fences have disappeared in spots. Forecast is for -28 from Canada this weekend... So, we should have moisture to germinate the crops and encourage abused sod this spring. Summer moisture and N prices will tell the tale.

Meanwhile prices are going up at the hay auctions. Need U$S 2.35 calves to make a big cow work with our latest hay prices. Time to sell some again?

 

[ClinchValley86]

It has turned snowy in central Minnesota. Road ditches are full and single strand fences have disappeared in spots. Forecast is for -28 from Canada this weekend... So, we should have moisture to germinate the crops and encourage abused sod this spring. Summer moisture and N prices will tell the tale.

Meanwhile prices are going up at the hay auctions. Need U$S 2.35 calves to make a big cow work with our latest hay prices. Time to sell some again?

It's going to be an interesting year.

With the coming inflation atop of the current inflation, it really could get ugly.

I see a lot of farms selling out and calling it quits. I am looking for some farms to lease. Probably going to put a sign at the foot of my driveway, "Looking for farm to lease." See what that does.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Best wishes on land leases. I know a lot more people looking for pasture or hay ground, than those selling out. Seems like you need a couple decade long relationship to be first in line for good ground.

Fertilizer and fuel inflation may cause a few to flinch, but the typical approach here is to mine the soil for a couple years before moving on. We have a shortage of stewardship.

 

[SBMF 2015]

We have a shortage of stewardship.

Yep, that's here too. If they can keep from rolling a combine on it they farm it. Straight up, straight down. Pull all the fences and trees and destroy the ground. If I thought cattle prices would stay high I'd love to see $2 corn just to screw all the tractor jockeys.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I am a constant disappointment to my seed man. I am not a big corn fan, I usually only use beans to prep ground for a perennial seeding, and I am always asking about forage or cc seed they do not stock... Then he asks why my soil test results are so high?

Because we buy in poly wire and some hay, then walk feed off our land.

 

[CowboyRam]

The snow pack is looking good. The Wind River Mountains are at 105% of normal. Looks like were are going to have plenty of water to irrigate with this coming summer.

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

I added a good bit of pasture this fall in hopes of keeping some heifers back and buying some bred cows this winter to grow considerably. But here in the snow capitol of the lower 48 we are still in a drought. We don't have but 6" of snow on the ground which is 1/10 of what is usual for this time of year. I'm afraid with last summers severe drought continuing into winter that next year maybe another lean year.

So for now I'm not selling much surplus hay and sitting on my hands as far as buying anything to feed.

I bought another 40 acres last spring with plans to pasture it but the price of diesel currently is making hiring an excavator to clear 1.5 miles of fenceline out of the budget.

 

[Stocker Steve]

So for now I'm not selling much surplus hay and sitting on my hands as far as buying anything to feed.

What does UP cow hay sell for?

How much actual N per acre do you usually apply?

 

[Stocker Steve]

I added a good bit of pasture this fall in hopes of keeping some heifers back and buying some bred cows this winter to grow considerably. But here in the snow capitol of the lower 48 we are still in a drought. We don't have but 6" of snow on the ground which is 1/10 of what is usual for this time of year. I'm afraid with last summers severe drought continuing into winter that next year maybe another lean year.

Takes a flood to quickly end a drought.

Even with heavy rains - - many overgrazed in 2021 so it will take a long time for pastures to come back...

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

Hay is all sold by the bale but roughly 100 bucks a ton. Just run on the mill grass hay.

Been so long since we've done any fertilizer that I would have to dig way back in the record books to see how much N. Our COOP closed down many years ago so now fertilizer has to come nearly 200 miles. The price of freight and inconvenience to get it here turned us all into miners.

I know droughts don't end that easy but usually our winters bring abundant snowpack (180+ inches). The is constantly melting from underneath as our ground doesn't stay froze under the snow, this really builds up the subsoil moisture.

 

[wbvs58]

Hay is all sold by the bale but roughly 100 bucks a ton. Just run on the mill grass hay.

Been so long since we've done any fertilizer that I would have to dig way back in the record books to see how much N. Our COOP closed down many years ago so now fertilizer has to come nearly 200 miles. The price of freight and inconvenience to get it here turned us all into miners.

I know droughts don't end that easy but usually our winters bring abundant snowpack (180+ inches). The is constantly melting from underneath as our ground doesn't stay froze under the snow, this really builds up the subsoil moisture.

That's interesting about not freezing the ground under the snow. I have heard of people making snow caves in survival situations.

Ken

 

[J+ Cattle]

Having gone through more than one devastating drought I will say this, it does not pay to truck in hay from far away at high prices. Your cows will go through a truckload of hay in short order, and you will be looking for more loads. In the end you will have spent any potential profits. If you have a hodge-podge of mixed cows, sell them and be done with it.
If you have genetics that you can't replace, then you should look into trucking your cows to non-drought areas. Find a place to lease or work a deal with another rancher that you know that can provide care for you. Hay in non-drought areas will be cheaper and will be available locally.
When Texas was in severe drought there were several large ranches that shipped cattle north to the Dakotas until the drought ended. It wasn't cheap but it kept them in business, and they were able to recover much quicker than having to rebuild the herd when the drought ended.

 

[chevytaHOE5674]

At least for us UP here our drought is much different than one in say Texas. Being close to the largest body of freshwater on the planet which is relatively cool, it keeps us from having the scorching heat, it also provides heavy dew nearly every night which is enough to keep things from completely drying out. So with lower stocking rates and having excess hay acres it allows guys like myself to skate on thru by the skin of my teeth.

 

[greybeard]

It's raining fish in Texarkana Texas..