Canadian Cattle Exports

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

I think your concern about the flood of Canadian cattle having a severe downward affect on American markets is a little off. I would guess that when the US border opens, the price in the US won't change by more than a nickel. I would actually guess it will be 2-3 cents. You have to remember that as big as Canada is in area, alot of it is sparsely populated. Farther up north, nothing grows but moss and muskeg. In Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec, most of the land is covered with rocks and trees (The Canadian Shield) Our total cattle numbers including milk cows, breeding stock etc is only about 14 million at present which I think works out to about 8% of the size of the American herd (please correct me if I'm wrong, I haven't checked the numbers recently) Some of our production is already entering the US as boxed beef. That leaves live cattle and we do have to eat some of that ourselves. Traditionally, beef from Alberta has gone south but alot of the beef eaten in Ontario comes from the US (less shipping costs). I gues we'll see which one of us is right when the border opens.

 

[mhill]

I hope you are.

 

[ollie]

The mistake you made was not selling them.

You seem to be full of opinions and no facts. If you can see the price next month when I sell them then please tell me I may wan't to buy more or sell now.

 

[mhill]

I'm not trying to pick fights here. And yes it is my opinion about the Canadian cattle. I don't know what will happen. It's a guess. I sold mine and got decent money for them. That's all I know. The market has softened a bit since then. You asked what mistake you made and I said not selling them at a time when the market was stronger. You never said how old your calves were or any other info.

 

[ollie]

I'm not trying to pick fights here. And yes it is my opinion about the Canadian cattle. I don't know what will happen. It's a guess. I sold mine and got decent money for them. That's all I know. The market has softened a bit since then. You asked what mistake you made and I said not selling them at a time when the market was stronger. You never said how old your calves were or any other info.

That is my point. You don't know how old, what kind,how I market, how they are mortgaged , my tax liability, my amount of perishable feed already stored and paid for or owed for . As a matter of fact you don't know anything about me or my cattle or the future market. What you should have said is that you are satisfied with what you got.

 

[mhill]

excuse my ignorance

 

[ollie]

I don't think your ignorant and no appology necessary. I was just trying to prove a point that a marketing decision usually doesn't include the same variables for everyone.

 

[CattleAnnie]

Here's a few links that might give you an idea on the number of cattle that Canada has as compared to the US.

From CattleNetwork (a US website)

Canadian Cattle On Feed (Alberta&Saskatchewan - monthly)

http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/mar ... COFCan.htm

American Cattle On Feed(monthly)
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/mar ... ed/cof.htm

Monthly American and Canadian Cattle Marketings
http://www.agmanager.info/livestock/mar ... US&Can.htm

Take care.

 

[ERIK]

I am Canadian and think that we are goingdo die if the border dosent open soon. I am in the dairy bussien and we are waiting to send live cattle across the border so i think Bush should open the border ans soon.

 

[Bez]

ERIK

I disagree with you - and very strongly at that.

First - the border opens - well, we have access to another market.

Second - the border stays closed - well, we are still here and developing other markets.

Third - Here is where the wet brown stuff will fly - I do not want to hear how tough it is on the dairy guys. You still have a cash flow. You are getting your quota money - every month - so do not even dare to cry me a river here. Us beef guys have been surviving on nothing - repeat nothing. For a long time. I am now down a bunch - but I am quite afraid to sit down and work it out.

Finally - If I can make it - darned near anyone can. Believe me, when I say this - when milk prices go up - so does your cheque. And that is about to happen again - maybe already has. The reason most dairy guys may be in trouble is they're riding the quota collateral train.

What's quota worth now - $27K per kilo? Heck if you are hurting - here is the opportunity to sell 10 kilos and buy some beef - now there's a bargain! $270,000 will buy you a darned nice herd of beef cattle.

Most dairy in my area seem to be able to get by - even though the river of tears is deep - on the other hand, the banks are taking the beef guys down - steadily.

You may not be able to sell your calves from fresh cows - but you have a guaranteed income - GUARANTEED! Best learn to adjust to your circumstance - like the rest of us.

I live in dairy country - in Canada - produce beef - and my wife and I both work off farm now to keep things running. Not too many of my dairy farming neighbours are at that stage - in fact I can not even think of one!

Not being hard on you - just truthful - best walk a mile or two in our shoes - with NO repeat NO income for more than a year - then you will understand.

Regards

Bez

 

[houstoncutter]

As for the dairy cattle no...but hell no.... Their seems to be a unusually large number of these cattle with BSE that are dairy worldwide. So there has to be somewhat of a link. Ollie as for your calves I am holding mine until Feb, they are on ryegrass, and if we dont float away I will recieve a high price for them. You stated it well, different variables for different areas. This calves have a little ear in and the market will discriminate against em if I had sold in the fall, but come Feb. they love em....go figure.

 

[Cattle Rack Rancher]

I live in dairy country - in Canada - produce beef - and my wife and I both work off farm now to keep things running. Not too many of my dairy farming neighbours are at that stage - in fact I can not even think of one!

I am also surrounded by dairy farmers and I still see lots of new trucks. Yeah, it might be bad for them but I don't think that its quite as bad as it is for the beef guys.