If he is offering this early your buyer must be optimistic.Have a pretty good offer for our steer calves that are two months from being born. I like forward contracting but have never sold this early. Usually wait until June for Oct. delivery.
Our autumn weaner sales start in about a month and $6.00/kg won't be that uncommon with heifers not too far behind. We are in a herd rebuilding phase recovering from severe drought, some areas still bad and numbers at the weaner sales will be down. Processors are doing it tough at the moment. I hope your markets are looking optimistic as it would help our processors to get to the break even point. As much as we hate seeing the processors capitalising on our misfortunes when destocking, we need to have all sectors of the industry viable.
Ken
Corn will still be high so feedlots will pay up for heavy feeders and yearlings, that they will contract for big $$$ in spring of 2022.Have predictions for fall calf market?
But we won the trade war!From many years in the cattle business I see about the same. If prices goes up equals more imports. All I see is input cost keep going up and harder to have a zero profit.
But we won the trade war!
In case you have not looked we are looking up a few azzholes in world rank of cattle productions. Ethiopia is not far behind. With imports acceptable much higher prices in any long run is a pipe dream.But we won the trade war!
COuntry | # cattle | % of total | |
1 | Brazil | 211,764,292 | 14.43% |
2 | India | 189,000,000 | 12.88% |
3 | China | 113,500,000 | 7.73% |
4 | United States | 89,299,600 | 6.08% |
5 | Ethiopia | 54,000,000 | 3.68% |
6 | Argentina | 51,095,000 | 3.48% |
7 | Sudan | 41,917,000 | 2.86% |
8 | Pakistan | 38,299,000 | 2.61% |
9 | Mexico | 32,402,461 | 2.21% |
10 | Australia | 29,290,769 | 2.00% |
11 | Tanzania | 24,531,673 | 1.67% |
12 | Bangladesh | 24,000,000 | 1.64% |
13 | Colombia | 23,141,388 | 1.58% |
14 | Nigeria | 20,000,000 | 1.36% |
15 | Russian Federation | 19,930,354 | 1.36% |
16 | France | 19,095,797 | 1.30% |
17 | Kenya | 18,138,500 | 1.24% |
18 | Indonesia | 16,607,000 | 1.13% |
19 | Venezuela | 14,500,000 | 0.99% |
20 | Myanmar | 14,350,000 | 0.98% |
21 | South Africa | 14,000,000 | 0.95% |
22 | Turkey | 13,916,924 | 0.95% |
23 | Paraguay | 13,376,456 | 0.91% |
24 | Uganda | 13,020,000 | 0.89% |
25 | Germany | 12,587,020 | 0.86% |
26 | Canada | 12,215,000 | 0.83% |
27 | Uruguay | 11,500,000 | 0.78% |
28 | Niger | 10,200,000 | 0.70% |
29 | New Zealand | 10,182,122 | 0.69% |
30 | Uzbekistan | 10,141,300 | 0.69% |
31 | Madagascar | 10,030,000 | 0.68% |
32 | Mali | 10,012,966 | 0.68% |
33 | United Kingdom | 9,844,000 | 0.67% |
34 | Burkina Faso | 8,912,532 | 0.61% |
35 | Bolivia | 8,847,434 | 0.60% |
36 | Iran | 8,670,000 | 0.59% |
37 | Chad | 7,800,000 | 0.53% |
38 | Nepal | 7,274,022 | 0.50% |
39 | Ireland | 6,902,600 | 0.47% |
40 | Italy | 6,091,500 | 0.42% |
41 | Poland | 5,859,541 | 0.40% |
42 | Kazakhstan | 5,851,227 | 0.40% |
43 | Cameroon | 5,805,297 | 0.40% |
44 | Spain | 5,696,910 | 0.39% |
45 | Peru | 5,556,188 | 0.38% |
46 | Afghanistan | 5,235,000 | 0.36% |
47 | Viet Nam | 5,156,727 | 0.35% |
48 | Zimbabwe | 5,150,000 | 0.35% |
49 | Thailand | 5,147,521 | 0.35% |
50 | Ecuador | 5,134,122 |
We were winning on the trade war some and now fuel prices are going up, fertilizer prices are going up and anything and everything I have bought in the farm line has went up. Cattle prices are up a little, but this time of year they usually go up to fall back down late spring. Higher corn prices will help fat cattle, but if they go up much the cheaper cattle from abroad will come rolling in as before.But we won the trade war!
From your countries listed above you have excluded around 400 million head of the total world 1.4 billion head.Neat, except Brazil hasn't really exported to the US, India doesn't really eat much beef as they're Hindu and those are a lot of reincarnated people on 4 hooves, China has 1.whatever billion people to feed...so I wouldn't be too alarmed about who produces more...it's what they do with it.
Brazil Announces That its Beef Will Be Exported to America
Brazil is the largest exporter of beef, and second only to the United States in raw production, in the world. The largest beef producing company in the world, JBS, is located in Brazil. And yet the United States, the largest consumer of beef in the world (in total, not per capita), has been...modernfarmer.com
Right, I only listed the 3 ahead of the US in production. Production numbers don't mean too much until you find out where the production is going, if it's going anywhere for that matter. Check out the list of where imported beef comes from, it's not India and China...From your countries listed above you have excluded around 400 million head of the total world 1.4 billion head.
So you are saying I should take $2.75 at 500 and $3 at 4 then.......?Corn will still be high so feedlots will pay up for heavy feeders and yearlings, that they will contract for big $$$ in spring of 2022.
I retained 3/4 of my heifers.
Depends on where you are in the food chain:I realize it's sarcasm, but I'm in my mid 50's and every time the US "won" something I've never reaped the spoils of said victory...maybe winning isn't really so great after all.