Anyone?
- Thread starter gcreekrch
- Start date
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Silver
Well-known member
I'm not optimistic. That's based on nothing but my gut feeling.
Dave
Well-known member
Based on what other people are spending on bred cows. I am optimistic. Or at least they are and I am hoping they are right. But the general economy I am not optimistic. So there you have it. It could go either way.
Silver
Well-known member
I will note though that on the Chicago feeders are trading at $1.54 for October deliver so that may bode well
Buck Randall
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I think there's reason for optimism. If the vaccine roll out continues to go well, restaurant traffic is going to be booming this summer and fall. Grain farmers are going to respond to current prices by overplanting corn acres, so that price will go down if the weather cooperates.
Those are big "ifs", but I'd say both are more likely than not to happen.
Those are big "ifs", but I'd say both are more likely than not to happen.
Dave
Well-known member
If he is offering this early your buyer must be optimistic.
wbvs58
Well-known member
Our autumn weaner sales start in about a month and $6.00/kg won't be that uncommon with heifers not too far behind. We are in a herd rebuilding phase recovering from severe drought, some areas still bad and numbers at the weaner sales will be down. Processors are doing it tough at the moment. I hope your markets are looking optimistic as it would help our processors to get to the break even point. As much as we hate seeing the processors capitalising on our misfortunes when destocking, we need to have all sectors of the industry viable.
Ken
Ken
Peace
Well-known member
If my math is any good, that's about $2.10/lb US, using $.775 for US/AU dollar exchange. What kind of weights are those, just out of curiosity? Here is the link to US futures.
Feeder Cattle Futures Quotes - CME Group
Find information for Feeder Cattle Futures Quotes provided by CME Group. View Quotes
www.cmegroup.com
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Corn will still be high so feedlots will pay up for heavy feeders and yearlings, that they will contract for big $$$ in spring of 2022.
I retained 3/4 of my heifers.
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Stocker Steve
Well-known member
But we won the trade war!
Peace
Well-known member
I realize it's sarcasm, but I'm in my mid 50's and every time the US "won" something I've never reaped the spoils of said victory...maybe winning isn't really so great after all.
In case you have not looked we are looking up a few azzholes in world rank of cattle productions. Ethiopia is not far behind. With imports acceptable much higher prices in any long run is a pipe dream.
National Beef Wire
National Beef Wire is an interactive platform for the display of real-time pricing and news relevant to the cattle and agriculture industries.
beef2live.com
| COuntry | # cattle | % of total | |
| 1 | Brazil | 211,764,292 | 14.43% |
| 2 | India | 189,000,000 | 12.88% |
| 3 | China | 113,500,000 | 7.73% |
| 4 | United States | 89,299,600 | 6.08% |
| 5 | Ethiopia | 54,000,000 | 3.68% |
| 6 | Argentina | 51,095,000 | 3.48% |
| 7 | Sudan | 41,917,000 | 2.86% |
| 8 | Pakistan | 38,299,000 | 2.61% |
| 9 | Mexico | 32,402,461 | 2.21% |
| 10 | Australia | 29,290,769 | 2.00% |
| 11 | Tanzania | 24,531,673 | 1.67% |
| 12 | Bangladesh | 24,000,000 | 1.64% |
| 13 | Colombia | 23,141,388 | 1.58% |
| 14 | Nigeria | 20,000,000 | 1.36% |
| 15 | Russian Federation | 19,930,354 | 1.36% |
| 16 | France | 19,095,797 | 1.30% |
| 17 | Kenya | 18,138,500 | 1.24% |
| 18 | Indonesia | 16,607,000 | 1.13% |
| 19 | Venezuela | 14,500,000 | 0.99% |
| 20 | Myanmar | 14,350,000 | 0.98% |
| 21 | South Africa | 14,000,000 | 0.95% |
| 22 | Turkey | 13,916,924 | 0.95% |
| 23 | Paraguay | 13,376,456 | 0.91% |
| 24 | Uganda | 13,020,000 | 0.89% |
| 25 | Germany | 12,587,020 | 0.86% |
| 26 | Canada | 12,215,000 | 0.83% |
| 27 | Uruguay | 11,500,000 | 0.78% |
| 28 | Niger | 10,200,000 | 0.70% |
| 29 | New Zealand | 10,182,122 | 0.69% |
| 30 | Uzbekistan | 10,141,300 | 0.69% |
| 31 | Madagascar | 10,030,000 | 0.68% |
| 32 | Mali | 10,012,966 | 0.68% |
| 33 | United Kingdom | 9,844,000 | 0.67% |
| 34 | Burkina Faso | 8,912,532 | 0.61% |
| 35 | Bolivia | 8,847,434 | 0.60% |
| 36 | Iran | 8,670,000 | 0.59% |
| 37 | Chad | 7,800,000 | 0.53% |
| 38 | Nepal | 7,274,022 | 0.50% |
| 39 | Ireland | 6,902,600 | 0.47% |
| 40 | Italy | 6,091,500 | 0.42% |
| 41 | Poland | 5,859,541 | 0.40% |
| 42 | Kazakhstan | 5,851,227 | 0.40% |
| 43 | Cameroon | 5,805,297 | 0.40% |
| 44 | Spain | 5,696,910 | 0.39% |
| 45 | Peru | 5,556,188 | 0.38% |
| 46 | Afghanistan | 5,235,000 | 0.36% |
| 47 | Viet Nam | 5,156,727 | 0.35% |
| 48 | Zimbabwe | 5,150,000 | 0.35% |
| 49 | Thailand | 5,147,521 | 0.35% |
| 50 | Ecuador | 5,134,122 |
Peace
Well-known member
Neat, except Brazil hasn't really exported to the US, India doesn't really eat much beef as they're Hindu and those are a lot of reincarnated people on 4 hooves, China has 1.whatever billion people to feed...so I wouldn't be too alarmed about who produces more...it's what they do with it.
modernfarmer.com
Brazil Announces That its Beef Will Be Exported to America
Brazil is the largest exporter of beef, and second only to the United States in raw production, in the world. The largest beef producing company in the world, JBS, is located in Brazil. And yet the United States, the largest consumer of beef in the world (in total, not per capita), has been...
modernfarmer.com
We were winning on the trade war some and now fuel prices are going up, fertilizer prices are going up and anything and everything I have bought in the farm line has went up. Cattle prices are up a little, but this time of year they usually go up to fall back down late spring. Higher corn prices will help fat cattle, but if they go up much the cheaper cattle from abroad will come rolling in as before.
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From your countries listed above you have excluded around 400 million head of the total world 1.4 billion head.Neat, except Brazil hasn't really exported to the US, India doesn't really eat much beef as they're Hindu and those are a lot of reincarnated people on 4 hooves, China has 1.whatever billion people to feed...so I wouldn't be too alarmed about who produces more...it's what they do with it.
Brazil Announces That its Beef Will Be Exported to America
Brazil is the largest exporter of beef, and second only to the United States in raw production, in the world. The largest beef producing company in the world, JBS, is located in Brazil. And yet the United States, the largest consumer of beef in the world (in total, not per capita), has been...
Peace
Well-known member
Right, I only listed the 3 ahead of the US in production. Production numbers don't mean too much until you find out where the production is going, if it's going anywhere for that matter. Check out the list of where imported beef comes from, it's not India and China...
National Beef Wire
National Beef Wire is an interactive platform for the display of real-time pricing and news relevant to the cattle and agriculture industries.
beef2live.com
So you are saying I should take $2.75 at 500 and $3 at 4 then.......?
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Depends on where you are in the food chain:
John Deere shareholders are winning.
Soybean speculators are winning.
Cattle traders are winning.
Packers are winning.
Calf producers not so much...
Ran across an internet article this winter that focused on how calf producers needed to reduce wintering costs since beef imports would be increasing. The data tables seemed way off - - so I checked and the article was published in 1994. Hummmm.
Been to Argentina and Brazil in a previous life. Very friendly people and really good Malbec. They have much lower labor and land costs than us, so they have lower feed prices. HDRider has posted about this. But we have always have several options:
1) Utilize low stocking rate cows to scavenge crop aftermath and rough pasture.
2) Sell into a premium market
3) Move to low cost land in Canada.
4) Become a trader.
5) Complain.
6) Plant food plots.
7) Run a seasonal herd.
8) Combination of the above
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