Where will beef prices be in a year...in 2 years????

[OhioRiver]

I have talked to about 20 or so producers in the last month. About half of them expect profits in the coming year and the other half no profit or red numbers. Some talked about the govt keeping prices down to keep the economy from not swinging a meat preference away towards fish or chicken per se. Are there too many cattle producers now. Should the government only buy from select licensed chains or organizations that license and play their game. I cannot see the average Joe wanna be Angus producer continuing to lose money. The popularity has trickled down well into the local grocery stores and product lines helping ad placement for consumers, however, do the prices make sense for investment and time allocated to each head per se per year. I have found that side marketing is the only way to go for your quality product to add extra revenue throughout the year at farmers markets or other smaller venues of less commercial value per se. I have not raised a single black angus yet, but have plans to start out in the spring with ET. Is private treaty strong enough to move most of the seedstock one raises?

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[Frankie]

I have talked to about 20 or so producers in the last month. About half of them expect profits in the coming year and the other half no profit or red numbers. Some talked about the govt keeping prices down to keep the economy from not swinging a meat preference away towards fish or chicken per se. Are there too many cattle producers now. Should the government only buy from select licensed chains or organizations that license and play their game. I cannot see the average Joe wanna be Angus producer continuing to lose money. The popularity has trickled down well into the local grocery stores and product lines helping ad placement for consumers, however, do the prices make sense for investment and time allocated to each head per se per year. I have found that side marketing is the only way to go for your quality product to add extra revenue throughout the year at farmers markets or other smaller venues of less commercial value per se. I have not raised a single black angus yet, but have plans to start out in the spring with ET. Is private treaty strong enough to move most of the seedstock one raises?

:!: :!: :!: :!: :!:

Beef is more expensive than pork or chicken. When the economy goes bad, consumers start looking for cheaper alternatives for their protein. I think ground beef is always popular, but the higher priced cuts will be a little harder to move. If inflation sets in, gasoline, diesel, fertilizer, and cattle feed costs continue to rise, it could be a difficult time for the entire cattle industry. Building a direct to consumer market works for a lot of people.

 

[OhioRiver]

What are some more avenues to market the Black Angus beef personally for a farm outside Louisville, Ky per se? The direct market seems like the only offset financial decision for low price I can think of. I just want to know if there are any other ideas for direct marketing I am missing.

 

[Susie David]

Alot of us sell our animals to a select customer base...do a search on marketing and see what others do....make alot more $$$ by selling freezer beef.
DMc

 

[backhoeboogie]

Beef is more expensive than pork or chicken. When the economy goes bad, consumers start looking for cheaper alternatives for their protein.

:banana: Wow! Why didn't I think of that. Chicken. You could raise what? - 10,000 head on a 5 acre "ranchette". Time to get busy with chicken herd books. Gonna start my own Certified White Leghorn herd. Get in on the cutting edge. :roll:

 

[Rangenerd]

If you can tell where the markets are going, you should be working in New York or Chicago for the exchanges. You would be making a hell of a lot more money.
My thinking is, it's going to take 10 years for the markets to stableize from the ethonal corn glut, and the oil price spike.
Here in California, rumor is, the Imperial Valley is going to take out about about 100K to 150K acres of hay (alfalfa) an put in sugar cane. I can only guess what loosing that 2.5million ton of hay will do to the west coast hay market. And as all of you know, as feed cost go, so goes the cattle market.

 

[MoGal]

My horseshoer went out to CA a few months ago and was told the alfalfa hay is being sold by the boatload to China... as fast as they can load it........ so I imagine that is already impacting your west coast hay market.

They have a political forum over at ranchers.net but since this deals with cattle and cattle only. I believe the lower and middle class will suffer in their ability to buy groceries. They already are and we aren't even in rough places yet (look out for 2009 and 2010). As the packers have gone global and the "free" (but not fair or equal) trade agreements allow them to import as much beef as they want, its pressuring the US beef producer to lower prices, in addition to the increased grain, hay, and production cost of that beef from birth to the consumer plate.

This is my opinion only, but I think production costs will remain high and the price the cattle producer will get in 2009/2010 will compare to the 1970's.......... and if you can't compete then oh well, the packers will just import more from Brazil, Argentina, Australia, etc......