I expect a first timer to make better than 500 lb heifers, and better than 550 lb steer calves, Add 50 lbs expectation for the next 2 years as a minimum. I don't necessarily cull them the year they don't live up to it, but I won't keep offspring from them.
Our oldest cows are 10 now.. I put down my oldie last fall at nearly 18 because of arthritis.. she had 16 calves and raised the biggest heifer last year though.
Of all the 34 replacements I've kept in the last 10 years, I have 23 of them, so that's about 67%. I kept one replacement last year I think may live up to my expectations, but has too tall a frame and not enough oomph to go with it... She had 3rd best ADG and comes from a good milk line, so she's on a shortlist to cull, when I have something proven to be better to replace her with