Understanding EPDs

[rjbovine]

Hope some one will help . I've bred 4 heifers to a Angus bull with a CED of plus 5 and a BW of plus 3.
With these numbers what should I expect when the heifers calve ? One of the heifers I would call a smaller frame .The others I would call large not huge . Heifers to start calving the 20 of Mar.. If I have made a mistake by using the wrong bull . Is there anything I should do ahead of time . thanks rj

 

[snake67]

Hope some one will help . I've bred 4 heifers to a Angus bull with a CED of plus 5 and a BW of plus 3.
With these numbers what should I expect when the heifers calve ? One of the heifers I would call a smaller frame .The others I would call large not huge . Heifers to start calving the 20 of Mar.. If I have made a mistake by using the wrong bull . Is there anything I should do ahead of time . thanks rj

Frame size? That is opinion and in this case means nothing.

As for what you can do ahead of time - well, on this place nothing gets bred unless it crosses the scales at 800 pounds - and yes, we weigh them - tapes are like rumour - you can find one on every corner and none of them are completely truthfull.

Everyone focuses on the bull numbers.

How big was the sampling to come up with those numbers - or was it "theory"

The moms have a 50% (some would say more) play in this game and we really know nothing about them.

I would say that all things being equal and knowing what I know now you might be OK - and you might not. And that is a good answer because we do not know the bull, the cow, the genetic and parental background of any of them and we sure do not know how they have been fed and the condition they are in.

Sorry - not trying to come across as a smart azz - but the truth is, it is a crap shoot at the best of times and anyone tells you different they do not know cattle.

Here is a fine piece of advice for future reference:

EPD "stuff" is a tool and not a panacea. It has flaws and when someone starts spouting numbers take a close look at him or her and ask yourself this question - "Would I trust this person with my wallet?" - because that is what you are doing.

There are a lot of snake oil salesmen and women out there promoting EPD as the great saviour. Plain and simple it is not. Follow that path at your own risk.

I have been doing this for a lot of years and EPD info is about as important to me as the calf is brown or red.

Use EPD as one of the tools - but if you use it as the main tool you simply fall into the "game" - and you do not need that

Have a good one

Bez

 

[rjbovine]

I should have added that the heifers will be 26 to 27 month of age when they calve. Thanks rj

 

[snake67]

I should have added that the heifers will be 26 to 27 month of age when they calve. Thanks rj

No problem my friend - this still changes nothing that I have previously written.

Have to go and dig out now - been snowing here for days and animals are getting hungry

Be good

Bez

 

[inyati13]

Last Thursday I spent about 2 hours at the UK Extension office to learn about EPDs. The Animal Science specialist was explaining EPDs. I was there because I have no experience with them. My impression after that meeting is exactly what Bez just said. And I am not saying that to be patronizing. This is not data based on any statistical functions. It is an accumulation of data gathered by the producer. If I understood it correctly and I honestly am not sure I did. But if I did, it does not come with confidence levels or repeatability quantifications. Take what I am saying with a grain of salt and a pinch of spice. The bright young girl who instructed me could not tell me whether there was any means to predict whether the numbers were repeatable with any level of confidence associated with it. I would have to say that Bez seems to be correct that it is a tool but mostly a crap shoot. There seem to be varibles that do not go into the equation. No matter how much accuarcy the breeder got in his bulls numbers if you don't know the cow, anything is possible. I want to be clear so I will say this loud, I AM NOT SAYING THEY HAVE NO VALUE. Maybe it is as good as we can do. This is just my 2 cents worth.

 

[AllForage]

rjbovine,

Operate in "realville" with your cattle first before dabbling into the esoteric world of numbers. What are the real world stats on the bull? The cows behind him and the breeders selection criteria?



Inyati13,

If repeatability interests you at all, get out of those halls and study up on close breeding. Might open your eyes.

 

[3waycross]

Personally i would have not used him on heifers! Having said that you are in it now so there'a one thing you can do for sure and that is to be very careful how you feed those girls.'

I personally DO NO believe that the equation is 50% bull and 50% cow. To me it is especially on heifers more like 40% bull/40% cow and 20% feed. You want to keep them in good condition but definately fight the temptation to load them up for their upcoming lactation. You can always feed for milk and breedback later!

I'd also keep the vet on speed dial!

 

[bse]

I do use EPDs as a tool i think there a good tool if the accuracy is there the numbers are pretty much right. With a pasture bull you may not have the accuracy to know one way or the other i would look back through the pedigree and make a judgement on his sire and dam but if all i had were your numbers there i would not have used him on heifers and really look at everything 3way said i think hes dead on.

 

[inyati13]

We discussed EPDs today in AI class. I have a little higher opinion of them. The Select Sires instructor says they are statistically based numbers if the data set is complete enough. Maybe I need to reserve judgement. One thing I observed, the others in the class base a lot of their decisions on those EPDs so you got to be careful. Someone once said, "it is not the truth that matters, it is what people believe that matters." I was informed that some bulls with lots of data behind them can be statistically analyzed and the semen sellers can show you the confidence levels and where they fall on a bell curve. That has to get some respect!!!

 

[dun]

This is from the Red Angus association so the possible change will be different then other breeds, but the accuracies part describes them pretty well
http://assets.redangus.org/media/Docume ... racies.pdf

 

[inyati13]

This is from the Red Angus association so the possible change will be different then other breeds, but the accuracies part describes them pretty well
http://assets.redangus.org/media/Docume ... racies.pdf

dun, that is just exactly what Kenley showed us today with regard to the bell curve and how the confidence level can predict the results. For example, a bull with a lot of data behind him can really narrow that confidence range to a degree that you know about what the out come will be on say birth weight. There is always going to be the data point outside the predicted range but there is value in knowing that you can expect a bull to throw calves below the average weight of the breed with a high degree of confidence.

BTW, you know you are getting old when you are in a group where you are twice as old as the next oldest member of the group and 15 years older than the instructors.

 

[Red Bull Breeder]

Just remember figures don't lie, but liars figure. There is no set of numbers that will take the place of knowledge of the cattle in the pedigree. Learn your breed! If you no enough about the cattle in the breed you want to use you will have more confidence in the EPD's.

 

[ohiosteve]

Understanding 'prepotency' is just as important as understanding EPD's.

 

[inyati13]

Just remember figures don't lie, but liars figure. There is no set of numbers that will take the place of knowledge of the cattle in the pedigree. Learn your breed! If you no enough about the cattle in the breed you want to use you will have more confidence in the EPD's.

Good point. I also agree with Bez on a point he has made several times since I have been following his posts on CT. That is you want cows in your herd that can deliver big calves. I remember his comment that he does not want a cow on his place that cannot deliver a 100 pound calf. As the SS instructor pointed out, you are always going to have those calves on the extreme large side of the bell curve for even the best CE sires. Better to have a cow that can deliver them.

 

[Red Bull Breeder]

A bull that will throw 75 lb calves in the south will throw 90 lb calves where Bez lives.

 

[inyati13]

Understanding 'prepotency' is just as important as understanding EPD's.

What is prepotency?

 

[inyati13]

rjbovine,

Operate in "realville" with your cattle first before dabbling into the esoteric world of numbers. What are the real world stats on the bull? The cows behind him and the breeders selection criteria?



Inyati13,

If repeatability interests you at all, get out of those halls and study up on close breeding. Might open your eyes.

AllForage, hey if I get any closer to breeding than I did in the AI class, they are going to arest me for bestiality/zoophilia. :lol2:

I specifically tried to keep my eyes closed so the release of air did not propell feces in them. :lol:

Seriously, explain what you are referring to in "close breeding." If I am allowed to guess, you are referring to crossing closely related cattle. Such as Son back to mother, etc. Right?

 

[AllForage]

Understanding 'prepotency' is just as important as understanding EPD's.

What is prepotency?

The overwhelming ability of a sire to stamp his progeny with his characteristics. This is achieved through many years of concentrating one's genetics through linebreeding. NOT one or two half sib matings.

 

[AllForage]

rjbovine,

Operate in "realville" with your cattle first before dabbling into the esoteric world of numbers. What are the real world stats on the bull? The cows behind him and the breeders selection criteria?



Inyati13,

If repeatability interests you at all, get out of those halls and study up on close breeding. Might open your eyes.

AllForage, hey if I get any closer to breeding than I did in the AI class, they are going to arest me for bestiality/zoophilia. :lol2:

I specifically tried to keep my eyes closed so the release of air did not propell feces in them. :lol:

Seriously, explain what you are referring to in "close breeding." If I am allowed to guess, you are referring to crossing closely related cattle. Such as Son back to mother, etc. Right?

True repeatability and consistency is achieved through close breeding. IT is the method in which all breeds were formed and developed. Close breeding is a general term used for the mating of related indidviduals. What you referred to is inbreeding or breaking the 50% natural barrier. I have been taught not to practice that, but some do and have with success. The more sustainable practice is linebreeding. Mating half sibs, cousins, and not breaking the 50% rule.

If most people actually saw a calf crop from a truely linebred sire they would realize they are getting cheated from their bull supplier. Putting outcross bulls on outcross cows is like throwing darts at a barn with a moving target. Sure you hit it once in a while, but you lose a lot of darts. But hey, isn't this what keeps the grand illusion and the pursuit of "perfection" going?

This concept was widely understood and practiced 40-50 years ago. Too bad it has been lost or falls on deaf ears.

 

[inyati13]

rjbovine,

Operate in "realville" with your cattle first before dabbling into the esoteric world of numbers. What are the real world stats on the bull? The cows behind him and the breeders selection criteria?



Inyati13,

If repeatability interests you at all, get out of those halls and study up on close breeding. Might open your eyes.

AllForage, hey if I get any closer to breeding than I did in the AI class, they are going to arest me for bestiality/zoophilia. :lol2:

I specifically tried to keep my eyes closed so the release of air did not propell feces in them. :lol:

Seriously, explain what you are referring to in "close breeding." If I am allowed to guess, you are referring to crossing closely related cattle. Such as Son back to mother, etc. Right?

True repeatability and consistency is achieved through close breeding. IT is the method in which all breeds were formed and developed. Close breeding is a general term used for the mating of related indidviduals. What you referred to is inbreeding or breaking the 50% natural barrier. I have been taught not to practice that, but some do and have with success. The more sustainable practice is linebreeding. Mating half sibs, cousins, and not breaking the 50% rule.

If most people actually saw a calf crop from a truely linebred sire they would realize they are getting cheated from their bull supplier. Putting outcross bulls on outcross cows is like throwing darts at a barn with a moving target. Sure you hit it once in a while, but you lose a lot of darts. But hey, isn't this what keeps the grand illusion and the pursuit of "perfection" going?

This concept was widely understood and practiced 40-50 years ago. Too bad it has been lost or falls on deaf ears.

Sounds like kissing cousins is a good thing. Jerry Lee Lewis was ahead of his time. :lol2:
Thanks. I appreciate what you are saying. In simple genetic termination it is a method of concentrating genetic material but you have to agree it would reduce diversity. But concentrating good traits is what everyone is about.