• Texas Pride Scenario: The two undefeated teams win out, securing the top seeds for Mississippi State and Florida State. Oregon loses in the Pac-12 championship game. TCU and Baylor win out, finishing with 11-1 records and sharing the Big 12 title. That could give us these first-round playoff pairings: Mississippi State-Baylor and Florida State-TCU. Taken a step farther, victories by the Horned Frogs and Bears would give us a TCU-Baylor title game Jan. 12 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington.
• Big 12 Nightmare Scenario: TCU loses its Nov. 27 game at Texas (5-5). No. 7 Kansas State (7-2) rebounds from a Nov. 20 loss at West Virginia (6-4) to knock off Baylor on Dec. 6 in Waco. No other upsets occur. That means TCU, Baylor and K-State would share the Big 12 title, all with two losses in league play ... one too many losses, in all likelihood, for any of the three to land a spot in the CFP playoff.
• SEC Overload Scenario: No. 5 Alabama (8-1) hands No. 1 Mississippi State (9-0) its first loss when the teams meet Saturday in Tuscaloosa, Ala. The victory gives the Crimson Tide the tiebreaker to represent the SEC West in the conference championship game, where Alabama claims the title. Mississippi State finishes 11-1 and joins Alabama, the SEC champion, in the four-team playoff bracket.
• Armageddon Scenario: It would require some upsets, but there is a way that all nine teams in our realistic playoff pool could bring two losses to the table for CFP committee deliberations on Dec. 7. And it's not that far-fetched.
Here's how:
• No. 1 Mississippi State loses road games against No. 5 Alabama (Saturday) and No. 11 Ole Miss (Nov. 29). No. 2 Florida State loses to in-state rivals Miami (Saturday) and Florida (Nov. 29).
• No. 4 Oregon falls in the Pac-12 championship game to No. 7 Arizona State, one week after the Sun Devils close the regular season with a loss at No. 19 Arizona (Nov. 28).
• Elsewhere, Alabama falls to No. 3 Auburn (Nov. 29), No. 6 TCU loses to Texas (Nov. 27), K-State knocks off No. 12 Baylor (Dec. 6) and No. 13 Nebraska (8-1) loses Saturday at Wisconsin before rebounding to take down No. 14 Ohio State (8-1) in the Big Ten championship game.
What happens if all of that craziness unfolds? Eventually, somebody might have to notice Marshall (9-0), the only undefeated FBS team that has yet to surface in the CFP rankings this season.
Jimmy Burch, 817-390-7760 Twitter: @Jimmy_Burch
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