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Caustic Burno

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Now for the scary part.
The 1982 downturn was driven primarily by the desire to rid the economy of inflation. To battle a decade-long bout of high inflation, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, now an economic adviser to President Barack Obama, pushed interest rates up to levels not seen since the Civil War.
 
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HerefordSire

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CB...not only are the rates going to move up in a natural cycle....they will get an extra boost this time because the Feds are flooding the market with cash at unprecedented levels.

Jim Rogers is buying farm land in Brazil and Canada. They are clearing the land, hiring farmers, fertilizing, etc. Commodities should skyrocket much higher than they ever have. There is a 50 year low in food production. This should spill over into the USA and Arkansas and Texas. I am guessing a triple in Ag land prices in about 5 years because food will be so high.
 

1982vett

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Cheaper land, cheaper labor, less restrictive regulations and taxes, all undercuts the american farmer. Will just make it cheaper to import foreign grown product than can be raised by the american farmer. Increased demand for food has not benifited the US farmer in 30 years. If they had, why would it take most 300 acre farmers two off farm incomes to pay the bills?

Jim Rodgers stands to make a small fortune, subject to any Brazilian government changes, at the expense of North Americans. Note that his project is taking place somewhere other than the States. No tree huggers in Brazil I suppose.
 
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HerefordSire

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1982vett":2388tppz said:
Cheaper land, cheaper labor, less restrictive regulations and taxes, all undercuts the american farmer. Will just make it cheaper to import foreign grown product than can be raised by the american farmer. Increased demand for food has not benifited the US farmer in 30 years. If they had, why would it take most 300 acre farmers two off farm incomes to pay the bills?

Jim Rodgers stands to make a small fortune, subject to any Brazilian government changes, at the expense of North Americans. Note that his project is taking place somewhere other than the States. No tree huggers in Brazil I suppose.



Looks like we (USA) are getting primed for the next leg up.
 

RD-Sam

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I'm thinking the only bouncing that will happen is like a ball bouncing down a flight of stairs. :lol2: :nod: The stimulus "plan" is going to take way too long to stop it from happening, they really screwed up there. Repos should build up a good head of steam the rest of the year, that means more banks biting the dust, and the government is not buying the bad debt, they are going to buy the AAA rated debt. :lol2: Here is what Dr. Doom has to say. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949
 
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HerefordSire

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RD-Sam":ha6ytc3k said:
I'm thinking the only bouncing that will happen is like a ball bouncing down a flight of stairs. :lol2: :nod: The stimulus "plan" is going to take way too long to stop it from happening, they really screwed up there. Repos should build up a good head of steam the rest of the year, that means more banks biting the dust, and the government is not buying the bad debt, they are going to buy the AAA rated debt. :lol2: Here is what Dr. Doom has to say. http://www.cnbc.com/id/29598949

Notice price keeps going down so as not to penetrate the downward sloping red line which acts as resistance. Sooner or later, the white downward slanted white line and the downward sloping red dotted line will converge and price will do one of two things. Explode up or explode down. It is loading a nice size spring right now. Many times I have seen a drastic move in the opposite direction first thereby creating a slingshot effect to penetrate the opposite resistance or support.

 
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HerefordSire

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Dow bouncing as expected. Up over 5% today. This is a daily chart where one candle is one day. Notice the bounce on the white line and notice the last time she bounced for about 1,000 point gain.

View attachment 2

Dow again, but one candle is one week. The last candle represents this week. Notice the bounce as expected. It appears price will test the downward sloping red dotted line. If she breaks this dotted line, will increase nicely.

View attachment 1

Finally, this is FAS, an ETF loaded with beaten down banks stocks. It went up about 40% today. One candle is one hour.



This is what investing and or trading is all about. You don't want to know how much I made today.
 

RD-Sam

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Looks like it's headed down again today, you could have just as easily lost money. The market is a huge gamble right now, there are probably people making more money in Las Vegas vs. the stock market.

Looks to me like some people hyped it up so they could make some bucks, then reality set back in. :drink:
 

1982vett

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jedstivers":3ke3syvl said:
I set an account up yestertay to be able to buy and sell, thinking hard about John Deere. Herefordshire what do you think about it?
Hey Jed, ya get your feet wet yet? How's it going?
 
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HerefordSire

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RD-Sam":kaq7sccd said:
Looks like it's headed down again today, you could have just as easily lost money. The market is a huge gamble right now, there are probably people making more money in Las Vegas vs. the stock market.

Looks to me like some people hyped it up so they could make some bucks, then reality set back in. :drink:

It is perfectly OK to be conservative with your money. That is one reason why there are certificates of deposit, municipals, treasury bills, notes, and bonds, etc. Looks to me like markets will continue to go up as previously posted. I would rather take a chance on a strong equity trend line and hold short term than to receive 1-4% per year.
 

TexasBred

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Herford, I certainly understand your approach. From your pic I think your a young/middle age fellow so you have time to "gamble" so to speak and roll with the punches. Some of us "more mature" folks might want to consider the "low risk, low return" for awhile until things settle down. I think a lot of folks are just totally disgusted and no longer even enjoy talking about the market, let alone actively investing. I still have some funds "misplaced" but it's too late to do anything with them. Have invested in some municipals which should yield around 10% as well as buying some well secured discounted real estate notes locally. Hopefully all will continue "positive" yields.
 
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HerefordSire

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TexasBred":3psrqjer said:
Herford, I certainly understand your approach. From your pic I think your a young/middle age fellow so you have time to "gamble" so to speak and roll with the punches. Some of us "more mature" folks might want to consider the "low risk, low return" for awhile until things settle down. I think a lot of folks are just totally disgusted and no longer even enjoy talking about the market, let alone actively investing. I still have some funds "misplaced" but it's too late to do anything with them. Have invested in some municipals which should yield around 10% as well as buying some well secured discounted real estate notes locally. Hopefully all will continue "positive" yields.

I am 47. How old are you TB?

I figure the Dow could hit about 5,386 range. That is only about 1,600 points but the percentage is in the upper 20s. That would be a nice drop to respect. This is in addition to the 18 percent or so already lost this year and the 40 percent or so last year. It all adds up. That is one reason why I think there is real value here. The trick will be to get out at this coming price peak before she drops. Looks like there was a thousand points stting on the table with 650 remaining.
 
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HerefordSire

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Found this on the Bank of America message board at Yahoo.


First of all I gotta say that I am not long or short in BofA or banks but after looking at the recent developments the last few days I am now only long in banks like BofA and Wells... here is why:

1) The past few weeks all big 4 banks have said that they had a great first two months and yesterday BofA CEO said that they are on track to net $50 Billion in income this year on $90 Billion Gross Revenue... but why suddenly banks are okay?

2) Here is why: The Fed has now figured it out (this was released yesterday) that yield curve is now at zero, which means the Banks are borrowing money from Treasury at zero interest and then loaning it to government agencies, businesses and you and I at higher rate of course and making a killing in the process. Through this lenders make money; shore up their balance sheets; and don't need TARP money - which is why all four banks have announced they won't need bail out funds. This, unlike TARP money, will not cost the treasury or you and I a single penny. Briliant!

3) The "Up Tick" rule is to be re-instated within a week or two which will hold the shorts back. With this rule you cannot short a stock going down and have to wait for it to go up and then short it. This is why BofA was at $3 because of massive hedge fund short action which will get killed.

4) Mark to Market accounting rules are about to change in banks favor dramatically so they don't have to write down non-performing assets at today's price but ammortize it over 5 to 7 years so if the value of assets go up they actually make money.

5) BofA has said that finalizing the Merryl and Countrywide Merger will save them $5 billion in costs per year and cutting dividends about $8 billion which now they will use this $13 billion in cost savings and pay back the TARP loan. Brilliant!

6) BofA CEO himself bought $2.5 million of the stock about two weeks ago between around $5, along with their other top executives. Great sign

7) The fear and rumors of nationalization are history since Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke have all publicly say the banks will not be nationalized and they will not be allowed to fail.

8) In about a week or two the new plan to remove toxic assets from their balance sheets will be announced by the treasury.

So: control the short sellers; freeze tarp loans and instead make banks make money with zero percent fed loan lines; alter mark to market accounting rules to avoid write offs and write downs; move toxic assets of the banks books; Get the dividend pay outs to pay back the TARP money asap.

Anyone the shorts the bank stocks now is either 1) a complete morron or 2) Has no clue what they're doing.

Good luck longs I am now one of you.


http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stock ... f=17&frt=1
 
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HerefordSire

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This is an updated hourly chart of FAS. Click to enlarge. Lowest red circle is the head while the other two circles are the shoulders. Together, they could be forming a bullish upside down head and shoulders formation. Notice the return this week is a little under a double or 100%.

 

1982vett

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HerefordSire":12yoe3ni said:
2) Here is why: The Fed has now figured it out (this was released yesterday) that yield curve is now at zero, which means the Banks are borrowing money from Treasury at zero interest and then loaning it to government agencies, businesses and you and I at higher rate of course and making a killing in the process. Through this lenders make money; shore up their balance sheets; and don't need TARP money - which is why all four banks have announced they won't need bail out funds. This, unlike TARP money, will not cost the treasury or you and I a single penny. Briliant!

Not exactly true, all that money laying around in money market accounts and T-bills that used to earn 5-6% no longer does. That is a real cost to retired folks who depend on interest income.
 

BeefmasterB

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TexasBred":1x8pneol said:
Herford, I certainly understand your approach. From your pic I think your a young/middle age fellow so you have time to "gamble" so to speak and roll with the punches. Some of us "more mature" folks might want to consider the "low risk, low return" for awhile until things settle down. I think a lot of folks are just totally disgusted and no longer even enjoy talking about the market, let alone actively investing. I still have some funds "misplaced" but it's too late to do anything with them. Have invested in some municipals which should yield around 10% as well as buying some well secured discounted real estate notes locally. Hopefully all will continue "positive" yields.

Good point TB. There is certainly money to be had in the stock market, if you have the finess to work it as hfs. I would feel more confident picking up some real estate and then re-sell at the upswing.
 

hillsdown

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BeefmasterB":10ad11i8 said:
TexasBred":10ad11i8 said:
Herford, I certainly understand your approach. From your pic I think your a young/middle age fellow so you have time to "gamble" so to speak and roll with the punches. Some of us "more mature" folks might want to consider the "low risk, low return" for awhile until things settle down. I think a lot of folks are just totally disgusted and no longer even enjoy talking about the market, let alone actively investing. I still have some funds "misplaced" but it's too late to do anything with them. Have invested in some municipals which should yield around 10% as well as buying some well secured discounted real estate notes locally. Hopefully all will continue "positive" yields.

Good point TB. There is certainly money to be had in the stock market, if you have the finess to work it as hfs. I would feel more confident picking up some real estate and then re-sell at the upswing.


WelI for one would wish the bounce would come, on what I already own ;as well as what my parents are sitting on..I always hated the stock market because it is not tangible like land as you say BmB, it never really made sense how you can buy and trade nothing for money..I just want my money back and I really want my parents to get there couple of mills back as they are both highly intellectual and worked extremly hard and smart as well as ethical for their money..
 
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HerefordSire

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BeefmasterB":1041vk0s said:
TexasBred":1041vk0s said:
Herford, I certainly understand your approach. From your pic I think your a young/middle age fellow so you have time to "gamble" so to speak and roll with the punches. Some of us "more mature" folks might want to consider the "low risk, low return" for awhile until things settle down. I think a lot of folks are just totally disgusted and no longer even enjoy talking about the market, let alone actively investing. I still have some funds "misplaced" but it's too late to do anything with them. Have invested in some municipals which should yield around 10% as well as buying some well secured discounted real estate notes locally. Hopefully all will continue "positive" yields.

Good point TB. There is certainly money to be had in the stock market, if you have the finess to work it as hfs. I would feel more confident picking up some real estate and then re-sell at the upswing.

I posted a long term real estate chart about a month or so ago accounting for inflation. It shows plenty of room on the downside. In more rural areas, less drop is expected. I would encourage you to inspect this chart before buying real-estate as an investment.
 

grannysoo

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HerefordSire - I'm not talking about you in the next statement, so don't take it wrong...

Figures don't lie.
Liars do figure.

Market predictability is a fact. However, the markets are moved by a few select people that make the serious money. What you are attempting to do is to follow the trends of the select few and the behavior patterns that you should follow.

This market, these people, the system, our government, is in a time unlike anything that we have ever seen before. There is no longer a difference between big business and big government, they are now one and the same.

When the political party in power decides to make things shift a certain way, they will shift. Beware the charts and graphs. It's a whole new day.

And........ it's not pretty out there.
 

TexasBred

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HerefordSire":1x8z4c2n said:
BeefmasterB":1x8z4c2n said:
TexasBred":1x8z4c2n said:
Herford, I certainly understand your approach. From your pic I think your a young/middle age fellow so you have time to "gamble" so to speak and roll with the punches. Some of us "more mature" folks might want to consider the "low risk, low return" for awhile until things settle down. I think a lot of folks are just totally disgusted and no longer even enjoy talking about the market, let alone actively investing. I still have some funds "misplaced" but it's too late to do anything with them. Have invested in some municipals which should yield around 10% as well as buying some well secured discounted real estate notes locally. Hopefully all will continue "positive" yields.

Good point TB. There is certainly money to be had in the stock market, if you have the finess to work it as hfs. I would feel more confident picking up some real estate and then re-sell at the upswing.

I posted a long term real estate chart about a month or so ago accounting for inflation. It shows plenty of room on the downside. In more rural areas, less drop is expected. I would encourage you to inspect this chart before buying real-estate as an investment.

HFS...as I said "these are well secured" notes with some age on them as well. A decent interest rate and with the discount even better. Real estate market is still very strong in my area (which I know could change) but I feel I'm ok.

Hillsdown...don't know how old your folks are but hate to see Sr. citizens put money into any risk investment. They could end up like the old 90 year old that's now a greeter at WalMart. Old age ain't the time of life to be rolling the dice.
 
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