Found this on the Bank of America message board at Yahoo.
First of all I gotta say that I am not long or short in BofA or banks but after looking at the recent developments the last few days I am now only long in banks like BofA and Wells... here is why:
1) The past few weeks all big 4 banks have said that they had a great first two months and yesterday BofA CEO said that they are on track to net $50 Billion in income this year on $90 Billion Gross Revenue... but why suddenly banks are okay?
2) Here is why: The Fed has now figured it out (this was released yesterday) that yield curve is now at zero, which means the Banks are borrowing money from Treasury at zero interest and then loaning it to government agencies, businesses and you and I at higher rate of course and making a killing in the process. Through this lenders make money; shore up their balance sheets; and don't need TARP money - which is why all four banks have announced they won't need bail out funds. This, unlike TARP money, will not cost the treasury or you and I a single penny. Briliant!
3) The "Up Tick" rule is to be re-instated within a week or two which will hold the shorts back. With this rule you cannot short a stock going down and have to wait for it to go up and then short it. This is why BofA was at $3 because of massive hedge fund short action which will get killed.
4) Mark to Market accounting rules are about to change in banks favor dramatically so they don't have to write down non-performing assets at today's price but ammortize it over 5 to 7 years so if the value of assets go up they actually make money.
5) BofA has said that finalizing the Merryl and Countrywide Merger will save them $5 billion in costs per year and cutting dividends about $8 billion which now they will use this $13 billion in cost savings and pay back the TARP loan. Brilliant!
6) BofA CEO himself bought $2.5 million of the stock about two weeks ago between around $5, along with their other top executives. Great sign
7) The fear and rumors of nationalization are history since Obama, Geithner, and Bernanke have all publicly say the banks will not be nationalized and they will not be allowed to fail.
8) In about a week or two the new plan to remove toxic assets from their balance sheets will be announced by the treasury.
So: control the short sellers; freeze tarp loans and instead make banks make money with zero percent fed loan lines; alter mark to market accounting rules to avoid write offs and write downs; move toxic assets of the banks books; Get the dividend pay outs to pay back the TARP money asap.
Anyone the shorts the bank stocks now is either 1) a complete morron or 2) Has no clue what they're doing.
Good luck longs I am now one of you.
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stock ... f=17&frt=1