Ready for Bounce?

Help Support CattleToday:

OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
TexasBred":u820qxwq said:
HFS...as I said "these are well secured" notes with some age on them as well. A decent interest rate and with the discount even better. Real estate market is still very strong in my area (which I know could change) but I feel I'm ok.

I bought my first house when I was 21 years old from savings. Made money. Rented out other places I bought at different times. I prefer not to interface with people. I would rather electronically deposit checking account funds to an online discount broker for free, execute an order over the computer, ride the investment for a short period of time, and have them electronically fund my checking account for free. Of course I have been doing this for many years and I got good at it by losing money. Since I paid the initiation fee, it is not uncommon to receive large electronic deposits in my checking account.
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
RD-Sam":1jp4zejq said:
So, was today the end of the bounce? :lol2:

You guess is as good as mine. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Dow down 7.01 points or 1/10 of one percent. There was a huge swing though. Dow was up about 2.2% at one time. As a result, there is a nasty looking bearish upside down hammer candlestick formed on the Dow for the day. The wick of the weekly candle stick (set by the high today) is bumping up against the downward sloping red dotted line which can be seen on a recent previous post of mine (look for weekly Dow). Short term conservative money is probably pulling out while they are profitable. I am bullish and aggressive. Full steam ahead captain. She appears to have some golden nuggets on the table matey.
 

1982vett

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
9,559
Reaction score
379
Location
Central Texas
RD-Sam":1i6cxh8l said:
So, was today the end of the bounce? :lol2:
Probably, since I put about 5% of my available cash in last week, normal pattern is to get whacked 10 - 15% right after. :( :tiphat:
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
1982vett":1e0hwo8w said:
RD-Sam":1e0hwo8w said:
So, was today the end of the bounce? :lol2:
Probably, since I put about 5% of my available cash in last week, normal pattern is to get whacked 10 - 15% right after. :( :tiphat:

What day did you get in an what security?
 

1982vett

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
9,559
Reaction score
379
Location
Central Texas
HerefordSire":2j0122oc said:
1982vett":2j0122oc said:
RD-Sam":2j0122oc said:
So, was today the end of the bounce? :lol2:
Probably, since I put about 5% of my available cash in last week, normal pattern is to get whacked 10 - 15% right after. :( :tiphat:

What day did you get in an what security?
Mutual funds, Friday.
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
Figured you may find this interesting and maybe humourous....

Suspending Mark To Market Accounting: The Tale Of Two Cows

You have two cows.

You write down on a piece of paper that the cows are worth $100 each.

You notice the cows are on fire.

Your paper still says $100.

Fortunately, mark to market has been suspended so you don't have to pay attention to the fire.

Your cows are dead from fire.

Your paper still says $100.

Fortunately, mark to market has been suspended so you don't have to pay attention to the dead cows.

You notice that you aren't getting as much milk as expected, so you adjust the model and mark the cows down to $98. You are confident, however, that the dislocated stream of milk revenue will quickly revert to expectations.

You need to borrow some money so you ask investors for a loan against the cows. The investors tell you the cows are dead, and you already owe them $200 dollars you borrowed to buy them in the first place. You show them the paper that says the cows are worth $98 each.

They light your paper on fire.

You ask the government to buy the dead cows at $98 each.

The government holds meetings all weekend and finally comes up with a plan to inject $45 dollars into your cattle ranch. In exchange, the government gets a right to milk generated from the cows at some point in the future. It expects you'll buy a new cow with the $45.

You have two dead cows, $45 and $200 in debt to your investors. You have no plans to buy new cows.

http://www.businessinsider.com/2009/2/s ... f-two-cows
 

1982vett

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 3, 2008
Messages
9,559
Reaction score
379
Location
Central Texas
Across the board averaging down. Both stocks and bonds. Finished putting back in what I had pulled out last September. At present I have about 41% in stocks, 24% in bonds and the rest in short term cash reserves. Now it's wait and see how much pain tolerance I have.

Kind of overweight in large cap and light in small cap and foreign stocks right now. Made a strategy error when I sold all of two funds that were heavy weighted in those. Now It will take $35,000 to reopen those two funds. Not exactly the type of commitment I want to make right now. Had I left a couple hundred in each I could have trickled it back in.
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
RD-Sam":357g1w2w said:
Looks like it's headed down again today, you could have just as easily lost money. The market is a huge gamble right now, there are probably people making more money in Las Vegas vs. the stock market.

Looks to me like some people hyped it up so they could make some bucks, then reality set back in. :drink:

It is perfectly OK to be conservative with your money. That is one reason why there are certificates of deposit, municipals, treasury bills, notes, and bonds, etc. Looks to me like markets will continue to go up as previously posted. I would rather take a chance on a strong equity trend line and hold short term than to receive 1-4% per year.


I should add something very important. The conservative investment returns and categories I wrote about above are not what they seem. If you are receiving 2% interest per year, for example, and you pay income taxes on this amount, what is left over, could theoretically have less buying power.



I cannot afford to be conservative. I am thinking the only ones that can afford to be conservative are the ones with higher amounts of money to invest. For example, if I had $10M drawing 2%, I could probably live off of that.
 

TexasBred

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 15, 2007
Messages
30,834
Reaction score
353
Location
Heart of Texas
HerefordSire":3ixivx1m said:
I cannot afford to be conservative. I am thinking the only ones that can afford to be conservative are the ones with higher amounts of money to invest. For example, if I had $10M drawing 2%, I could probably live off of that.


Oh heck....PM me with wiring instructions. I'll loan it to you. :lol2: :lol2: :lol2: :lol2:
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
FAS up again. If you are speculating in this security as the result of my writings, the time to liquidate a long position would be anytime from now to tomorrow. Price could test $6.30-$6.40 range tomorrow which is higher than the current after market trading price of $5.71 but it is probably not worth the risk. I would rather liquidate now, and re-enter at a nice pull back. Price has gone up about 120% or so in 7 trading days. If you have it, lock it in.
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
HerefordSire":fv4s4wlq said:
I figure the Dow could hit about 5,386 range. That is only about 1,600 points but the percentage is in the upper 20s. That would be a nice drop to respect. This is in addition to the 18 percent or so already lost this year and the 40 percent or so last year. It all adds up. That is one reason why I think there is real value here. The trick will be to get out at this coming price peak before she drops. Looks like there was a thousand points stting on the table with 650 remaining.

vette.....after further study, I believe the Dow will come on down to 5,300-5,400 soon. You can call it 5,386 for the luck of the Irish day, which is roughly .618 times the Dow's all time high which would put the price at a very very strong supported multi-decade increasing trend line. I will get back with you on the estimated time. Theoretically, it could happen any time. Realistically, the charts are predicting something very bad could happen within a couple of months or three (maybe GM going bankrupt?). I had seen a similar pattern around 9/11/2001. I will try to give a day of warning when the expected event gets closer. Something is not right.
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
Click to enlarge. This is a Dow weekly chart where one candle is one week. Current value is 7,743. I am expecting the Dow to hit bottom @ 5,424 on or around June 22nd. This implies there are about 2 weeks of playing around to the upside and sideways, etc. The charts are telling me to be very worried this summer for an event to occur. When and if this event occurs, make sure you have cashed stashed if you are an investor or trader. Of course, the odds could be I am wrong.




Click to enlarge. One candle is one hour. This should be only a speculative trade. Target appears to be $15 per share which would be a double from here. The red horizontal line is resistance. Watch for a breach to the upside. Current price is $7.05. If you don't understand the lines let me know. Follow the FAS (NYSE) 3X yellow arrow pointing to $15 per share @ your own risk as always.

View attachment 1
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
Here is the bullish case for the Dow. Notice I previously posted the bearish scenario for the Dow falling to around 5,400. Both could obviously fail to occur. These projections are educated guesses based upon my experience. These charts are for conversation only and not to act upon. In reality, noone knows the future.


Click to enlarge. Each candle represents one day. This bullish scenario shows a possible inverted head and shoulders formation shown by the red circles. Some call this a "V" bottom. The yellow arrows represent a probability of future direction based upon past direction. In other words, I tried to draw the future price movement in a symmetric pattern. The blue ellipse is a target price around August of this year. Watch the yellow ellipse for a major price breach this summer and she could zoom up fast.

 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
I am picking up some danger signs. Time for me to liquidate in a day or so. I will be out (liquid) before the end of April 18th.


This is the main reason but there are others....Look at the bold print below...note there are enough followers to make this a self fulfilling prophecy even if the following doesn't happen. Better to be liquid to play another day even if prices are higher.

Timewave zero is a theory that purports to calculate the ebb and flow of novelty in the universe as an inherent quality of time. It is an idea conceived of and discussed at length by Terence McKenna from the early 1970s until his death in the year 2000. Novelty, in this context, can be thought of as newness, density of complexification, and dynamic change as opposed to static habituation. According to McKenna, when "novelty" is graphed over time, a fractal waveform known as timewave zero or simply the timewave results. The graph shows at what times, but never at what locations, novelty is supposedly increasing or decreasing. According to the timewave graph, great periods of novelty occurred about 4 billion years ago when Earth was formed, 65 million years ago when dinosaurs were extinct and mammals expanded, about 10,000 years ago after the end of the ice age, around late 18th century when social and scientific revolutions progressed, during the sixties, around the time of 9/11, in November 2008, and with coming novelty periods in October 2010, with the novelty progressing towards the infinity on 21 December 2012. Important graphic points in 2009, appear around 19 April, 29 August and 23 October 2009, indicating the possibility of significant events around these dates[1].

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novelty_theory
 

Ryder

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 18, 2004
Messages
5,857
Reaction score
53
Location
Southeast Louisiana (Rep. of W. Fla.)
Daily charts - Overbought with declining 3,10,16 MACD and declining 12,26,9 MACD histogram.
From the Nov. high, the next 61.8% Fibonacci resistance comes in at ~ 875 on the S&P.
Posssible short term short setting up.

Weekly-Coming off oversold bottom where there was a text book positive divergence between the index and the MACD.
On intermediate term basis, there is probably more upside to the rally.

I make these statements based on traditional technical indicators. The indicators do not always work out. They only give possible or probable turning points. Some market configurations make them pretty reliable, some not.
Anybody that says when so and so line is crossed, the market will do such and such, you can be sure that person is a novice or a liar.

There may have been some of the old masters in the past that could be absolutely sure sometimes. But they are dead and as far as I know did not tell all of their secrets.

Maybe there is someone hidden away in an undisclosed location that can do it today. But if so, I sure don't know who or how and none of the analyst I am familiar with know either.

I have heard several people say that the market was down so much that it was too late to get out. They were just going to ride it out.
I say, when you are in a hole, quit digging it deeper.

If you have a broker, money manager, whatever, and they say something like, "We are in for the long haul", or "the market goes down, but it always goes back up", then take your money and run for the nearest exit.
Get a long term chart of the stock market going back to the high in 1929 when the market topped put. Then draw a line across to the point the market came back to that value again. Notice how long it took. That's the part the brokers don't want to talk about.
Just because they have a necktie and a nice office does not mean they know anything. Trust me on this one.
Rule 1 is to guard your capital. As long as you have money you can play the game. But if your money is gone, you have no chance of winning.
Rule 2, do NOT believe what the "experts" tell you on the television.

These are a few of my thoughts, humble as though they may be, and I am sticking to them until I change my mind.


There is risk involved. Enter at your own peril.
 
OP
H

HerefordSire

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 2, 2006
Messages
5,212
Reaction score
0
Location
Arkansas
Nice post Ryder. I see some upside also. But, I just liquidated. It was a good ride. Risk is too high for my blood. I will reenter around June 23rd.
 

Latest posts

Top