How much is the falling market going to affect bull prices?

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ram

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I'm going to a couple of bull test sales again this year, and just wondering how far the prices will be off from last year? My guess is $500. lower maybe more. But with all the heifers that are being held back maybe the demand for bulls might go up? IDK I'm just curious on what other cattle producers are thinking?
 
I've been wondering and thinking about the same question lately. Very anxious to see this winter's sale numbers up against last years.
 
I've been wondering the same thing. I really wanted to save back a bunch of heifers but doing so would require a new bull to breed them. I'm willing to bet it will take a full year of lower calf prices before bull prices take a serous hit.
 
Toad":1u17qlbd said:
I've been wondering the same thing. I really wanted to save back a bunch of heifers but doing so would require a new bull to breed them. I'm willing to bet it will take a full year of lower calf prices before bull prices take a serous hit.

That'd be my opinion also. You may see a sale here and there where you'll find them off from this year but in general I bet it takes a year.
 
The guy up the road sells Registered Angus bulls and usually has a sell at our local Auction Yard every year. Talked with him at the football game the other night and he said it could effect the numbers sold because if prices are off, producers won't have the extra cash to spend. Sure we all have to have bulls, but if the extra dollars aren't there it may mean people will hold on to their $$$ a little tighter and watch for better deals. I have always budgeted and sourced for good Sires because the better the cow/calves the better price you can get even in lower markets. However, I know that is not the case for everyone and know a few guys that cost share bulls when $$$ is tight, which results in less bulls sold for bull producers. Which means in the end they will take what the market will bare. It will certainly be interesting to see what happens when the bull sales start up this fall/spring if prices continue to stall out.

On a side note, my father (84) says he remembers selling calves and getting .45 a lb when he was first starting out, so he has always told me to plan on a $1 and if I get anything higher dance all the way to the bank ...ha ha ha
 
We left everything a bull....our plan is to pull out the best and sell to people who dont want to spend a ton of money on a reg bull. There will be nothing wrong with any of our bulls, except i wouldnt put them on heifers and will be advertised as such, not a heifer bull... We have some very nice looking young bulls, going to be hard to let them go. Will sell for a little over what we'd get at a sale barn.
 
I have to disagree respectfully with selling these calves as a herd bull, cowgirl8. Last thing you wanted is a very dissatisfied customer.
 
front end bulls sales have been shockingly high in California this fall.
 
Muddy":2tu9x4q6 said:
I have to disagree respectfully with selling these calves as a herd bull, cowgirl8. Last thing you wanted is a very dissatisfied customer.

Who said anything about a herd bull... I consider a herd bull one that you're going to be keeping replacement heifers from, and that is really the choice of the buyer. You get what you pay for in bulls like in anything else, and while the statement "Nothing wrong with ANY bull" may be bold.. again, if the buyer can't see anything wrong with the bull, he probably won't see anything wrong with his calves either.. Not all people care much about the family tree of their herd, just that there are calves on the ground.. and CG8's bull probably will do that fine.
 
js1234":3uasoq6a said:
front end bulls sales have been shockingly high in California this fall.
Exactly and last year there was a shortage. WIth all the people buying our culls at the sale barn and putting them back in production, we have all these people who dont want to spend thousands for a bull. They are in it for the short run and obviously dont care about the growing part, they just want quick money. Out of over 100 bull calves, we have around 10 i'd use as a bull and yes, there would be nothing wrong with any of them. I have no problem with selling bulls and i'd show them the herd where we exclusively use home grown bulls and the herds we use registered ones. There is no difference. We would use any of these bulls and will sell for a fraction of what they could get from a registered seller...
 
right now nothing has affected reg beefmaster bull sales.the sale i heard about a few days 153 bulls aved $8000hd.
 
Nesikep":2ktenhpx said:
Muddy":2ktenhpx said:
I have to disagree respectfully with selling these calves as a herd bull, cowgirl8. Last thing you wanted is a very dissatisfied customer.

Who said anything about a herd bull... I consider a herd bull one that you're going to be keeping replacement heifers from, and that is really the choice of the buyer. You get what you pay for in bulls like in anything else, and while the statement "Nothing wrong with ANY bull" may be bold.. again, if the buyer can't see anything wrong with the bull, he probably won't see anything wrong with his calves either.. Not all people care much about the family tree of their herd, just that there are calves on the ground.. and CG8's bull probably will do that fine.
Though I am only a registered seed stock breeder, Nesi has a very good point. There are those kind of buyers out there. (We see it here on the boards even.)
My concern is, does it keep those kind of folks away from the sales and the good bred bulls? Driving prices down on them? IDK just thinking out loud.
 
I ran into a guy selling some decent looking registered 2 year old angus bulls for $3,000 over the weekend. I'm halfway considering selling my bull and buying one of these from him. I doubt I will find a better deal.
 
Price effect will depend on which market niche, and weather this calf price "V bottom" is really a "W bottom".

Budget bull buyers ran into a big 2015 shortage here. Suppliers for that market steered them (like they should have) in fall of 2014. I expect budget bulls will cost less in 2016.
 
budget bulls arnt that cheap.we sold a bull calf out of the pasture to a guy that just wanted to get his cows breed for $1500.it was a crossbred bull.
 

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