Talking to the local guys in their 50s and up, none are looking to expand beyond their pre-drought cow numbers. Equipment, land and labor is too expensive to hang a fresh new rope of 1M debt around your neck at age 55 and 8% interest.
You got that right. Granted, we would like to get our numbers up again slightly over 100 head. In regards to debt, why would we want to take on new debt over age 55. Sure there will be the odd one we can't get around, like replacing a tractor if an existing one blows up, but buying 'new' equipment to expand........ no thanks, not with equipment costing more then a firstborn, second born, all your cows and the clothes off of your back.
As to what is considered a hobby operation?! If the cow cheque doesn't cover all the expenses, pay your bills and let you live with a full belly.......... it becomes a hobby, because one of you, or both, have to get a job in town.
We have about 90 head.......... hobby operation, because the bank wants to get paid and we like to eat, we had to add a full time job in town 15 years ago.
As to retaining heifers. I don't think there is a straight answer to that, there are so many angles one could look at it, financial, herd management, personal preference. In the end we all try to end the year with at least a little bit profit. PROFIT LOL who here is making profit off of cows which isn't taken immediately by the bank for expenses or debt.
Anyway, there is no right or wrong (within reason). Whatever works for you.