HerefordSire":dce1jrq2 said:
Good post. If it does pass, there will be about 1,000,000 small ranchers going out of business (only speculating). Feeders will tank maybe to .40 cwt. Supply will dry up. The prices will skyrocket in that order while retail beef prices triple.
It won't be THAT bad. We will PAY the tax, the costs will get passed on to the consumer. Some consumers won't be able to afford it. They will either eat more simply (and we will lose their business) or they will run it up on the credit cards and bankrupt over it. I think ultimately everybody who is honest with themselves realizes that this industry is smaller than it was ten years ago and it will be smaller than it is now ten years from now. The feedlots are the dead man walking. Between clean water regs, odor regs, dust regs, CO2 regs, urban sprawl, and animal welfare concerns they ARE going to all go out of business either from the cost side or at the point of a gun. I hope that is 30 years from now so I probably won't have to deal with it; but you can hear that train coming down the tracks and we probably can't stop it. IF I was younger, richer, and more adventurous I would be in Brazil because ultimately we are going to hand off this business (and probably the hog, chicken, and paper biz too) to them.