Cattle market headed south?

[nap]

I've been watching a few cattle auctions from various parts of the country since the stock market collapsed yesterday. From what I've observed it looks pretty bad. I'm wondering if you guys are experiencing the same thing in your part of the country. I hope not!

 

[grannysoo]

The cattle market cycles. It's been heading south for some time. Look for buying opportunities.


You can also sell now and then buy them back when the price goes up. :lol2:

 

[bigbull338]

our market doesnt seem flat.but then again when we sale our calves they bring from .85 to $1 a lb.an the calves are heavy usually 700lbs or more.we looked through the calves this evening an counted 8 or so thats ready to go to the sale.

 

[Stocker Steve]

We don't seem to have a cattle cycle anymore. Don't let the price of oil fool you - - we are in a deflationary period. We cann't expect to buy all kinds of stuff and then expect it to be worth more later. This is a good time to sharpen your financial pencil and pay down debt.

I may not be able to buy the wife another rifle this fall... :cry2:

 

[hillrancher]

Stocker Steve, indeed the cattle market went sour today off 3.00 from yesterday. Were going to sell a few tomorrow the barn said would be off 4.00 more tomorrow. The barn said bring them in it will be worse next week. I am going to hold and hope the goons in DC will be done with their games and it might flatten out.

 

[TheBullLady]

An order buyer friend of mine said cows / pairs are still decent, but calves are down. I'm going to hold my calves ( 3 - 4 months right now) until after the election and hope they are better then.

 

[BC]

Did anybody look at the futures market today? Cattle and graisn were down hard because of all this mess in Washington and on Wall Street.

 

[Frankie]

Most feedlots run on borrowed money. If they can't borrow money, they'll pay less for cattle. Have a friend who runs a pharmacy in a small rural town. He fills a lot of Medicare and Medicade prescriptions. If Medicare and Medicade don't pay within the 30 days that his suppliers bill, he has to use his line of credit until they do pay. I hope he can stay in business with this tightening of the lending market. If that small town loses that pharmacy, it will be harder on the older people to get their meds.

 

[bigbull338]

they are just trying to scare people with all the you cant borrow money crapp.ive talked to some people that have bought a new car.an they had no prob getting the money.heck i can go to the bank an barrow money no prob.

 

[Third Row]

Just try it.

I've been calling around looking for financing on a small tract of land. I have been told 10.3% for a 7-yr note is the lowest interest rate, longest term they can do before I even start to tell them about my situation.

 

[CPL]

Just try it.

I've been calling around looking for financing on a small tract of land. I have been told 10.3% for a 7-yr note is the lowest interest rate, longest term they can do before I even start to tell them about my situation.

Isn't that the reason why we're in this mess? Too many people getting loans that didn't have the responsibility to pay them off. I think/hope things are going to change where you do not just walk into the bank and get a loan everytime you want. Too many Americans are OK with being in debt, they just add to it and add to it. Little by little every year. A loan here a loan there, and then when they can't pay it off who suffers? Banks. Yeah alot of people aren't going to be getting loans here for a while, but its probably because in the past they've/someone else had gotten one and didn't deserve it. Its tough and it sucks but that's the way things will be.

Sorry this has nothing to do with the cattle market.

 

[Third Row]

Read closer, they aren't even checking to see if you can pay right now. We have no problem at all paying, that's not the issue.

 

[RD-Sam]

Just try it.

I've been calling around looking for financing on a small tract of land. I have been told 10.3% for a 7-yr note is the lowest interest rate, longest term they can do before I even start to tell them about my situation.

I talked to someone the other day in Alabama, it was between 7.2% and 7.9% on land, maximum was 5 years for a fixed rate.

 

[BC]

Futures market was down the limit on fat cattle and feeder cattle. Corn and soybeans were also down the limit. Calves were $3 to $4 per cwt. cheaper today than Friday and Saturday.

 

[somn]

Yeah those $1.03 live cattle puts and and the $.90 I spent on calls for corn Is really looking good again.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Like usual - - the money is in the marketing. Folks that sold grain or cattle this summer should be feeling good. Guys that paid big $ for rent and inputs are in a tough spot unless they contracted ahead.

I read an farm magazine article yesterday (that was written a month ago) and we are about 15% below the predicted the bottom for corn. I believe the demand will be there longer term but emotion is driving markets right now.

Somn - are the feedlot guys going to be back in the black next year?

 

[somn]

Like usual - - the money is in the marketing. Folks that sold grain or cattle this summer should be feeling good. Guys that paid big $ for rent and inputs are in a tough spot unless they contracted ahead.

Contracting ahead is part of a sound management plan.

 

[somn]

Somn - are the feedlot guys going to be back in the black next year?

If they are in the red already last year that was by poor management. There was never a single day price swing in either direction of either commodity corn or cattle to have lost money. If money was lost it was lost in the management of the cattle not the cattle themselves.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Sounds like I need LRP for the calves I am buying right now. :cboy:

Any predictions on how cull cow prices will do during the fall run?

 

[BamaCowboy]

Went to sale barn this week , cattle are way down here in my area. I bought 5 hd of 6 wt bull calves for average of .60 lb. These were for some people to put in the deep freeze