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Chase is one of the few US banks(could be foreign for all I know) that back the Feds., most are foreign banks. They are buying property when they buy out these banks, in other words they now own more of the US unless the debts are settled.
 
HerefordSire":20lg8u59 said:
RD-Sam":20lg8u59 said:
One other thing, this is looking more and more like the Feds playing the American people like they did when they brought on the depression, do you see who is buying up all these failing banks and property? They are gonna drive it in the gutter, buy it all up for pennies on the dollar, then sell it back to the people and make a killing. The depression was all planned out, and it's starting to look like this is too.


JP Morgan Chase has half of all credit derivative exposure in the USA and 12% of the entire world. Have you noticed who is buying banks? There are two sides to every derivative contract. One is a loser and one is a winner.

This is pretty enlightening for those who don't know that the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the Federal Government. You can find all sorts of stuff on the internet about the federal reserve, the national debt, OPEC, and the fact that there is no "energy crisis" in the world, it's all just manipulation by big banks. And watch out about running out and buying gold like the fools are doing right now, the banks beat the OPEC nations out of billions when they invested in gold, then they decided it was time to crash the gold market and clean up on that one too.http://www.information-avenue.com/2008/ ... erve-scam/
 
RD-Sam":192kbo4c said:
Chase is one of the few US banks(could be foreign for all I know) that back the Feds., most are foreign banks. They are buying property when they buy out these banks, in other words they now own more of the US unless the debts are settled.

When JP buys a bank and they are on the opposite side of a trade of the bank that is being bought, the contracts cancels themselves out because the buyer is now the same owner of the both sides of the position.

Here are the owners of JPM Chase:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=JPM
 
RD-Sam":2oa43cna said:
HerefordSire":2oa43cna said:
RD-Sam":2oa43cna said:
One other thing, this is looking more and more like the Feds playing the American people like they did when they brought on the depression, do you see who is buying up all these failing banks and property? They are gonna drive it in the gutter, buy it all up for pennies on the dollar, then sell it back to the people and make a killing. The depression was all planned out, and it's starting to look like this is too.


JP Morgan Chase has half of all credit derivative exposure in the USA and 12% of the entire world. Have you noticed who is buying banks? There are two sides to every derivative contract. One is a loser and one is a winner.

This is pretty enlightening for those who don't know that the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with the Federal Government. You can find all sorts of stuff on the internet about the federal reserve, the national debt, OPEC, and the fact that there is no "energy crisis" in the world, it's all just manipulation by big banks. And watch out about running out and buying gold like the fools are doing right now, the banks beat the OPEC nations out of billions when they invested in gold, then they decided it was time to crash the gold market and clean up on that one too.http://www.information-avenue.com/2008/ ... erve-scam/

Gold is an entirely different ball game because it can also substitute for a currency, in addition to being a commodity, which is a danger to fiat currency. In 1934 the President of the US confiscated all gold from all citizens. In 1973, we went off the gold standard. Gold is dangerous because it usually trades opposite to our fiat currency and when our currency is being debased, we hopefully can pay back older debt will less dollars.
 
I disagree with almost everyone in this thread. First of all I don't see why (if you were an established breeder with a herd and a plan) you would alter your plan in a big way just because a bunch of people dispersed. Sure there are some genetics you can use; but unless your existing plan has been proven unsound I don't know how many gamechangers are really out there. And as far as beef crashing because of the impending worldwide credit crisis, that is just nuts people!!! We are in the FOOD business. People in rags still eat. Calf prices are still suprisingly strong because grain prices have dropped precipitously since Iowa dried out from the flood and because American beef production is DOWN by 6%. Apparently more people went out of the biz than we thought. The population is still increasing and most of the public aren't in the stock market in a big way and don't have a lot of savings to lose in a bank run any way so will still be eating dinner even if all the banks shutter up (they may be living in their Mom's basement though). I don't see how calf prices drop substantially. I am very bullish about beef prices for the next 3 or 4 years out.

Now for those who THOUGHT they had seven digits worth of real estate investments.....don't watch television, read the paper, talk to anyone, or try to sell anything these next six months because we COULD be in the beginning stages of asset destruction like no one has seen since the early 80s......and don't get me started on bank stocks.
 
Brandonm22":zwi61ei2 said:
I disagree with almost everyone in this thread. First of all I don't see why (if you were an established breeder with a herd and a plan) you would alter your plan in a big way just because a bunch of people dispersed. Sure there are some genetics you can use; but unless your existing plan has been proven unsound I don't know how many gamechangers are really out there. And as far as beef crashing because of the impending worldwide credit crisis, that is just nuts people!!! We are in the FOOD business. People in rags still eat. Calf prices are still suprisingly strong because grain prices have dropped precipitously since Iowa dried out from the flood and because American beef production is DOWN by 6%. Apparently more people went out of the biz than we thought. The population is still increasing and most of the public aren't in the stock market in a big way and don't have a lot of savings to lose in a bank run any way so will still be eating dinner even if all the banks shutter up (they may be living in their Mom's basement though). I don't see how calf prices drop substantially. I am very bullish about beef prices for the next 3 or 4 years out.

Now for those who THOUGHT they had seven digits worth of real estate investments.....don't watch television, read the paper, talk to anyone, or try to sell anything these next six months because we COULD be in the beginning stages of asset destruction like no one has seen since the early 80s......and don't get me started on bank stocks.

Settle down B! Be cool. How many head do you have and what breed?
 
My point is don't go running out buying up all of these great deals on seed stock unless you really have the money laying around to do so, you could put yourself in a really bad situation.

Nobody knows for sure just where this is headed, I am sure the big bankers have a good idea though. People also cannot afford beef if they don't have money to spend, if we go into a major recession or a depression it will kill the market. People will be eating rice, beans, and macaroni and cheese. You can look at it like this though, at least you will have plenty of pricey beef to eat yourself though. :lol2:
 
RD-Sam":3v7khig5 said:
People also cannot afford beef if they don't have money to spend, if we go into a major recession or a depression it will kill the market. People will be eating rice, beans, and macaroni and cheese. You can look at it like this though, at least you will have plenty of pricey beef to eat yourself though. :lol2:

Relax. This is not "The Grapes of Wrath". This is 2008 America and as a group the poor people are the fattest most overfed people in the entire country. People will still be getting their food stamps and their unemployment benefits plus running up their credit card balances (if they can) and they can cook met or burglarize houses when that is not enough. Most folks will just be grilling out instead of eating at "Ruby Tuesday"s.
 
Brandonm22":2vyoykur said:
RD-Sam":2vyoykur said:
People also cannot afford beef if they don't have money to spend, if we go into a major recession or a depression it will kill the market. People will be eating rice, beans, and macaroni and cheese. You can look at it like this though, at least you will have plenty of pricey beef to eat yourself though. :lol2:

Relax. This is not "The Grapes of Wrath". This is 2008 America and as a group the poor people are the fattest most overfed people in the entire country. People will still be getting their food stamps and their unemployment benefits plus running up their credit card balances (if they can) and they can cook met or burglarize houses when that is not enough. Most folks will just be grilling out instead of eating at "Ruby Tuesday"s.

B.. Look at the companies with the most percentage losses today. Most are banks. It is spreading to regional banks. So far, nothing to worry about. In my opinion, money is leaving regional banks now. If you are in Alabama, look at what happened to Regions today.
 
Energy companies took a beating too. Might be mostly because of mutual fund and hedge fund redemptions.

Sorry Doc, I know we are way off topic again.
 
Doc,

Sound advice as usual. Nothing is ever gained by doing something in a panic.

HerefordSire, now that you have predicted the end of the cattle industy as we know it and throughly convinced me that the sky is indeed falling, do you care to take it one step further and predict the end of the world? :D
 
HerefordSire":iihhz1sr said:
B.. Look at the companies with the most percentage losses today. Most are banks. It is spreading to regional banks. So far, nothing to worry about. In my opinion, money is leaving regional banks now. If you are in Alabama, look at what happened to Regions today.

My sister and brother in law used to be mid-level executives at Regions. I am shocked their stock stayed up as long as it did. That has been a house of cards since it swallowed up Amsouth. I think everybody accepts that we are in a recession.....and most people paying attention think that this is the biggest one in quite a while. I think everybody expects that the 700 point drop is just a taste of what is coming. The coal company we have been dealing with these many months has lost $60 million in market cap in just the last week. Will they even exist a month from now??? People are losing their jobs. People are losing their homes, their cars, their businesses, their dreams. A lot of people who are eating CAB filet mignons at the restaurants will be grilling Choice ribeyes at their house. A lot of people who are eating Choice T-bones now will be eating Select sirloins soon and "fajita meat" is going to be more popular in a lot of homes. People will be eating out less. Fad diets will be replaced by pot roasts. Pizza delivery will be replaced by meat loaf. Underneath the branded beef, the fine dining, the $100,000 Precision daughters, the $50,000 duallies, and the $8000 show heifers this is still a commodity business and always has been.

While we struggle through the bank failures, the foreclosures, the market corrections, the stockholder losses, the bankruptcies, the court ordered auctions (one reason we carry no mortgage on either house or any of our 487 acres...and have not since 1972), etc people are still going to eat and folks that eat meat now will try to continue to eat meat in the future. My point is the sun will come up tomorrow (even if unemployment hits 12% by March). We have been through worse (....well at least my Grandfather had) and we will get through this.
 
bgm":r0afzw8u said:
Doc,

Sound advice as usual. Nothing is ever gained by doing something in a panic.

HerefordSire, now that you have predicted the end of the cattle industy as we know it and throughly convinced me that the sky is indeed falling, do you care to take it one step further and predict the end of the world? :D

Feeders are only off 2.8% today. Lives about the same thing. Good thing they have daily limits. Dow is off the most points in the history of record keeping. How many head are you going to buy this fall? Are you going to improve your genetics?
 
How many trucks you got lined up for me Herford? I'm gonna need some by wensday morning.
 
Feeders are 2.8% off! off what??? Last week?? Granted we did sell all the cows to cut timber back in 2004 and haven't bought back in, but I can't recall a fall where price per lb didn't start dropping as grass dried up and volume of calves hitting the barns increased. In Alabama (at least) that weekly sale following that first hard frost is usually like a 4 or 5% drop.
 
HerefordSire":2833je4i said:
bgm":2833je4i said:
Doc,

Sound advice as usual. Nothing is ever gained by doing something in a panic.

HerefordSire, now that you have predicted the end of the cattle industy as we know it and throughly convinced me that the sky is indeed falling, do you care to take it one step further and predict the end of the world? :D

Feeders are only off 2.8% today. Lives about the same thing. Good thing they have daily limits. Dow is off the most points in the history of record keeping. How many head are you going to buy this fall? Are you going to improve your genetics?

Not sure about numbers yet, but you can bet I'll be looking to improve if I can. This isnt' going to last forever, and I'm not highly leveraged. I don't believe in buying nothing for the farm I can't pay cash for. Keeps me out of trouble.

Now are you saying this is going to last forever and we should all go to the nearest tall building and start looking for a place to jump from? :D
:D :D :D
 
HerefordSire":16fxsw8n said:
alexfarms":16fxsw8n said:
HerefordSire":16fxsw8n said:

How will all these foney "assets" ever be dealt with? How can our economy ever absorb that much debt? I just can't imagine. I knew too much money was being borrowed by alot of people who had very little equity, but those numbers are just unbelievable.

First of all, these derivatives control real assets. To understand the way they work, allow me to provide a simple example. Say I am trading the Euro to US dollar. I deposit cash into an account in Switzerland. The ratio price may be 1.45 Euros to one dollar in Euros. When a trade is made, my cash is converted to Euros. My buying power can be much higher than the equity in my account, and in my simple case, the leverate is 100:1. Therefore, if I deposit $100K into an account I can control $10M before conversion. This is where the leverage comes in. If I am short on a trade (not long) @ 5:00 New York time, I pay interest for the amount of the trade at predetermined rates. If the market moves against me, the $100K can vanish in a relatively short time period.

The way I see it, there are two ways to address the issue. The obvious solution is to save more than we borrow. Who is going to do this? Not too many of us, so lets forget this dream soluton, which is ultimately the only solution. The second way, which is more likely, is to borrow from Peter to pay Paul. If we borror more today to pay yesterday's debt, it could cost us less becasue yesterday's debt is diluted when new currency. In other words, it takes less dollars to pay the same older debt provided the interest rates and currency conversion rates are the same. China, Japan, Germany and England, etc. will sooner or later cut our drug habits off. Then it could be time to go to war again.

If I understand you correctly, the "only solution" is to stop borrowing and payoff debt. So then why do we hear the politicans panicking about the credit markets freezing up.......if we need to stop borrowing, then we don't need the credit markets to solve our problems anyhow. And your war reference is so true and rarely ever admitted. My father served in WWII and he always swore it was a money war and history mentions very little about it in that context. We have seen the 9/11 and the war on terrror and it is obviously motived by money also. History just keeps repeating itself over and over.
 
My sister and brother in law used to be mid-level executives at Regions. I am shocked their stock stayed up as long as it did. That has been a house of cards since it swallowed up Amsouth. I think everybody accepts that we are in a recession.....and most people paying attention think that this is the biggest one in quite a while. I think everybody expects that the 700 point drop is just a taste of what is coming. The coal company we have been dealing with these many months has lost $60 million in market cap in just the last week. Will they even exist a month from now??? People are losing their jobs. People are losing their homes, their cars, their businesses, their dreams. A lot of people who are eating CAB filet mignons at the restaurants will be grilling Choice ribeyes at their house. A lot of people who are eating Choice T-bones now will be eating Select sirloins soon and "fajita meat" is going to be more popular in a lot of homes. People will be eating out less. Fad diets will be replaced by pot roasts. Pizza delivery will be replaced by meat loaf. Underneath the branded beef, the fine dining, the $100,000 Precision daughters, the $50,000 duallies, and the $8000 show heifers this is still a commodity business and always has been.

While we struggle through the bank failures, the foreclosures, the market corrections, the stockholder losses, the bankruptcies, the court ordered auctions (one reason we carry no mortgage on either house or any of our 487 acres...and have not since 1972), etc people are still going to eat and folks that eat meat now will try to continue to eat meat in the future. My point is the sun will come up tomorrow (even if unemployment hits 12% by March). We have been through worse (....well at least my Grandfather had) and we will get through this.


Does anything here ring a bell?

"Hoover was one of the most able men to be elected as President and also one of the unluckiest. He was inaugurated on 4 March 1929. Seven months later the Stock Market crashed. The new President was a believer in self-reliance and self-help and was loathe to see government intervention in economic affairs. He sought, ineffectually, to encourage expansion through a tax cut and by urging business to expand. Spending measures passed by Congress that threatened a balanced budget were rejected. As the ranks of the unemployed swelled, Hoover's popularity plummeted. Soup kitchens became common sights. Many factories became desolate sites. The production index fell to its lowest point in the country's history.

"Settlements of unemployed men sprang up and were dubbed "Hoovervilles". The army was used to remove war veterans who had marched to Washington, DC, to ask for advance payment of their war bonuses. Hoover stuck to his principles and continued to urge local and state action. The states proved unable to cope. As conditions worsened, Hoover established the Reconstruction Finance Corporation to lend money to firms that could offer collateral, but it had little impact."

http://www.answers.com/topic/herbert-hoover
 
EAT BEEF":316s4euv said:
How many trucks you got lined up for me Herford? I'm gonna need some by wensday morning.

50,000 pounds per truck / 400 pounds live weight = 125 light weight calves per truck
50,000 pounds * .40 per pound = $20K per truck not counting delivery
How many truck loads do you want?
 
Brandonm22":2slxykn2 said:
Feeders are 2.8% off! off what??? Last week?? Granted we did sell all the cows to cut timber back in 2004 and haven't bought back in, but I can't recall a fall where price per lb didn't start dropping as grass dried up and volume of calves hitting the barns increased. In Alabama (at least) that weekly sale following that first hard frost is usually like a 4 or 5% drop.


Today:
http://finance.yahoo.com/futures?t=livestock
 

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