Bred Cow Price Trend?

[Stocker Steve]

Hay here is down to half of last years price and calves are up about $15/cwt from last year - - but bred cow prices are only up $150/head. I am bullish but who knows what the future holds... :?

Am I missing something or is the price of bred cows based mostly on emotion?

 

[kenny thomas]

As a cow trader I totally agree with the buying on emotion. Hay price is 1/3 of usual and I am hearing prople say they are going to buy cows just to eat the extra hay. It seems they are giving no thought to profit or loss just the fact that they have extra hay.
We are having a preconditioned calf sale here Dec 1 and we scheduled a cow sale the next week. If we get the calves sold high I think it could make $100 difference in the price of the cows. They will still be talking about how well the calves sold and will pay more for the cows.
I have been buying cows for the last month with the plan of having them on that sale.
Another emotion here is that a $1000 cow is too high no matter how good she is but a lot of people will pay $800 for a common one. Guess which kind I have been buying?

 

[Isomade]

Absolutely it's based on emotion. And emotions have been high lately. I have been watching bred Tiger prices soar in my area over the past couple of years. Some folks will pay 150-200 more for a bred tiger of less quality than a good brangus, just because it's a tiger.

 

[Howdyjabo]

I think that people have been beat up by the market for soo many years

-- the reoccurring droughts/floods/tornadoes ect ect
-- the perceived disease risks cropping up over and over
-- things remain so volatile right now with the markets and economy
-- Land and/or inputs are still at a premium discouraging expansion
-- Most ran thru their savings, and loans are hard to come by .

That they are still holding tight waiting for the next bomb to drop

PS-- I would pay more for a Tiger, no emotion involved. I don't expect I will get back into cows but if I do I will be looking for Tigers or a bargain.

 

[angus9259]

I've been buying hay and selling cows. Hay is low - I'll tarp it. Cows are high - I'll sell them. It goes against my normal philosophy of buy high / sell low, but we'll see how it goes.

 

[bigbull338]

cheap hay should equal high cows.but as said the droughts an bouncing calf prices have alot of people scared to buy cows an hay.an some will buy the short an solid pairs or bred cows.let them wean the calves then sell the whole bunch come weaning time.

 

[TexasBred]

I've been buying hay and selling cows. Hay is low - I'll tarp it. Cows are high - I'll sell them. It goes against my normal philosophy of buy high / sell low, but we'll see how it goes.

Well that eliminates one of my competitors. ;-)

 

[Stocker Steve]

I think the older farmers are more excited about corn prices than calving out cows, so I am buying hay and cows. The truck is getting a work out and I will have a lot of manure by spring. :cboy:

I sold culls for 61 cents this summer. Cull hard and cull often.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Hay price is 1/3 of usual and I am hearing prople say they are going to buy cows just to eat the extra hay.

It is a lot cheaper to buy horses if you want to get rid of extra hay ;-)

 

[kenny thomas]

You do have a point. :lol2: :lol2: I don't own any horses and I have a lot of cows for sale so I am going to keep telling them that cows might be the right thing to buy.

 

[Anonymous]

Can't give a horse away around here.

 

[kenny thomas]

Where are you in southeast TN? Can't be too far from me. I will send you a load.

 

[traderaaron]

Here in Colorado prices jumped at least $100 head in the last two weeks and I am looking to sell up to 300 head of young Angus, Angus plus and few Brangus Cows now.

I usually try and buy a lot of old Cows but competition for that got a bit carried away at the last sale and I am probably shut off on that unless I can buy them cheaper.

 

[SRBeef]

Some thoughts:

Hay is a perishable commodity, it can deteriorate quickly if not used up.

Cows are a tangible asset that will probably bring you more return than the ridiculously low interest rates at the bank, especially bred cows bred to a good calving ease/good growth bull.

The fundamentals of the US beef industry are sound: small beef herd, good demand here and for export for some types of beef.

Good beef cows that can do well on hay and grazing and don't need a lot of expensive corn may be a good investment right now? At least in some situations and for some people?

I see some folks that can see past the dark-November-funk we seem to get into every year and are optimistic about certain parts of the beef business.

jmho. Jim

 

[traderaaron]

I'd much rather own a Cow that will replace these high priced calves than trying to buy calves.

I couldn't understand all these folks selling all their cows and going to yearlings.

I'll keep as many Cows as I can carry over but I can't carry over all the inventory I accumulated from late Summer and early Fall at much lower prices.

One thing I do like seeing is folks selling more than just old and cull cows to take advantage of higher prices though while still keeping a cow herd.

 

[SRBeef]

...One thing I do like seeing is folks selling more than just old and cull cows to take advantage of higher prices though while still keeping a cow herd.

I just sold three very good, young (1 coming 3 yr old, 2 coming 4 yr old) but very large bred cows. Tough decision to make but once they are gone I feel better and that it was the right decision. The herd just LOOKS better in the pasture.

Jim

 

[Arkieman]

http://www.dailylivestockreport.com/documents/dlr 11-19-10.pdf

Despite significant cow herd liquidation in recent
years, US cow slaughter continues to increase and it is currently
well above year ago levels. The top chart to the right shows
a rolling seven day total of daily US cow and bull slaughter. For the
seven days ending November 18 (Thursday US time) cow and bull
slaughter was reported to be a whopping 154,000 head, the highest
level so far this year and 4.8% higher than the same period a year ago.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I couldn't understand all these folks selling all their cows and going to yearlings.

I have both. Yearlings can make more $ per acre and are less work. Cows take less capital and utilize some not so great forage. Both have their place if you don't mind winter chores...

 

[stocky]

People can't figure out the price situation here, either. Hay is about the same price as last year, but should fall because there is a huge supply of unsold hay. Calves off the cow were a terrible price, much less than last year until they came up last week. And, the price of bred cows and cow-calf pairs going back to the farm is through the roof. Better quality pairs at a sale last week were 1400-1525 per pair. Was hard to find a common pair for under 1000. Bred cows were 1000-1250, if they were any quality at all. Everyone was asking with cheaper calves, hay too high, and corn more than double what it used to be, why are people paying this crazy high price for cows to go back to the farm. Normally, 6 dollar corn means 60-70 cent calves. I guess right now, the export market is holding our cattle up. Hard to figure the market right now, but something has to change. The overall economical situation may dicatate things that we are not looking for. What will happen to the corn price if they do not extend the ethanol subsidies? That could make corn crash and feeder calves skyrocket? Or a disaster happen to close our export markets and cattle crash? Who knows----but it could be a dangerous time to invest alot of money that you don't have in cattle or corn.

 

[traderaaron]

Bred Cow prices=slaughter value (relatively high), feed (in many cow-calf areas quite plentiful), calf prices(highest ever in most places), lack of anything else to do with one's money (and ranchers and particularly farmers are reporting record incomes in many areas).

When a rancher is selling a 400lb calf for $1.60 or a 600lb. calf for 1.20+ and they have excess pasture from a good summer and money isn't worth anything and they don't want to pay taxes they can really push the bred cow market higher.

If every rancher in my area wanted to buy 10-20 young bred Cows there wouldn't be enough to go around and that's exactly what most people are wanting.