50/50Farms
Well-known member
Two weeks ago you said small operators drive the ag economy. Which is it?
Big runs at Texas sale barns
- Thread starter BC
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I know this is kind of debatable but we are keeping back heifers right now which sounds bass-ackwards for a drought.
On the front side of the drought flush heifers are the first to fall so we are buying our own heifers cheap.
Our gamble is how long until prices go up or it rains.
Good thing is heifers are easy and cheap to stock. Worse case scenario we run them to the AB in the fall to keep from carrying them through the winter and get paid on weight.
Better case is we run them to AB in fall and the prices have started to climb already.
Next and probably the best would be we get some rain and sell them as heifers or bred heifers in spring for people restocking.
Obviously we get to take our pick to get numbers up way cheaper than you can get them on the market.
There is not a whole lot of down side from what I can see.
On the front side of the drought flush heifers are the first to fall so we are buying our own heifers cheap.
Our gamble is how long until prices go up or it rains.
Good thing is heifers are easy and cheap to stock. Worse case scenario we run them to the AB in the fall to keep from carrying them through the winter and get paid on weight.
Better case is we run them to AB in fall and the prices have started to climb already.
Next and probably the best would be we get some rain and sell them as heifers or bred heifers in spring for people restocking.
Obviously we get to take our pick to get numbers up way cheaper than you can get them on the market.
There is not a whole lot of down side from what I can see.
farmerjan
Well-known member
I am pushing my son to keep back all the heifers we can. Got a few that are idiots that will go, but anything not needed to make the big farm payment, I want him to keep. They often bring a little less than steers as feeders, but you have options as @Brute 23 said... I want to either sell as 6-8 wts to go for future breeding prospects, or as bred heifers if the market goes up. But with the prices they are bringing, if someone wants to put them on a feedlot, that is their business. Still, I want to keep as many back as we can and sit on them for awhile. I am thinking breds down the road.
SBMF 2015
Well-known member
It's both. When the small operations leave so does small town main st.
The county that I live in was the hog capital of the world up until the '90's. Farmers raised more hogs than any other place. A lot of cattle were fed out too.
The town that I graduated high school from has around 800 people. There used to be a Ford and Chevy dealer, lumber yard, hardware store, grocery store, feed mill, Case dealer, and a New Holland and JD dealers within 7 miles.
That's all gone. There is a gas station and a dollar general. Every on has to travel 20miles for everything else.
SBMF 2015
Well-known member
My best friend sells seed stock. He told me the other day that he AI'd heavy with calving ease bulls. He thinks a lot of producers will retain hfrs about the time these bull calves are old enough to be sold as breeders.
50/50Farms
Well-known member
My point was his inconsistency. He said before that we were the backbone. Now he says that we're done for. I doubt it. Too many mouths.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Yes, but beef production is up due to heifer and cow slaughter.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
We had a 50 year drought last year and a bumper crop of grass this year.
I think a lot of folks (that still have cows) will be retaining heifers, but I am not sure that producing calves will pay in 2022.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
They do and we're leaving it.
It's real simple we are aging out. Seventy year old men are not going to line up and start over. We started over after 2011 lot of difference in late 50's and 70's today. My hay man is 76 know of one under 40. Walk in your local feed store if there is someone in there 40 it's a deer hunter.
I only know of two in my county under 40 with cows.
This is simple we are aging out and my kids or grandkids generations have no desire to continue.
It goes right back to the TAMU prediction we're not going to be here.
Stocker Steve
Well-known member
Talking heads are predicting a beef cow price low in Q4. Who knows? Even if there is a price low then, it may not be a good time to buy. Age, interest, wintering cost, market momenturm, and other options for your time all come into play.
I think we need to look and dry conditions and sells off realisticly in these situations. Anyone that owns cattle has to understand that at any given time we are 30 days from a very dry or drought condition. You can pretty well count on a drought every 10-15 years as well. Some people stock to the max and some learn what their place can handle and stock accordingly. I've been through a few so stock accordingly and keep calves/yearlings longer to try and make up the money difference. I'd say I stock 25 hd less than I could run on a normal year. Which strategy is better, who knows?? I've got a friend that stock so heavy his cows would have the chicken eye if we got 2" a week all summer long. Also most folks with smaller herds (less than 40 hd) do not run the cattle like business. I'm not sure what they do with the money and don't care but they definitely don't stock 2 yrs worth of hay or save the calf money for troublesome years. These guys sell off in bad years and buy back or not the next year at higher prices. Some guys as Fence said sell off in years like this and sell any hay they can at inflated prices and use the money made to make more money in other areas. I honestly think this is the best option but I'm a cow guy so this never enters my mind. I've got about $24,000 worth of hay in the barn I bought last year for $6,000. Sell it and invest? Probably best option but no way glad I bought 2.5 years worth last year though.
Bottom line is some will sell out, some will hang on, some will be forced out. Cow and calf prices will rise next year because of this which will cause some to sell out too. One thing for certain is that for everyone that sells out and doesn't get back in there's another man licking his lips to fill his void.
Too answer the statement CB made about the TAMU workshop. I wouldn't but much stock in what TAMU or the NRCS offices say. Those guys read books, teach, and preach. They have no idea what's really going on out here. If you doubt what I say have one out for a field visit. After they tell you how to run your operation ask them where they live and how many head they run....you'll be surprised I promise.
Bottom line is some will sell out, some will hang on, some will be forced out. Cow and calf prices will rise next year because of this which will cause some to sell out too. One thing for certain is that for everyone that sells out and doesn't get back in there's another man licking his lips to fill his void.
Too answer the statement CB made about the TAMU workshop. I wouldn't but much stock in what TAMU or the NRCS offices say. Those guys read books, teach, and preach. They have no idea what's really going on out here. If you doubt what I say have one out for a field visit. After they tell you how to run your operation ask them where they live and how many head they run....you'll be surprised I promise.
Maybe people under 40 understand economics and have jobs so don't frequent feed stores or bale hay. I've got cattle and don't bale hay and rarely walk in a feed store. There's just no reason too. I'm not under 40 but didn't do it then either.
where are you?
Mrcopier
Well-known member
Ya where are you?
most colleges over the past 25 years have predicted the demise of all small operations whether it is cattle or small services businesses, most of the predictions were wrong
50/50Farms
Well-known member
Some people just love to doom and gloom. Some people don't know what they think they do.
libertygarden
Well-known member
@Brute 23
As I was feeding my small herd yesterday, I was thinking along the same lines as you. Keep my heifer, sell my other bull calves, buy 5 more bred cows or heifers ready for a bull. I think this crunch will impact prices next year so if you have a way to carry cows today to bring calves to market next year, you can stand to make good money.
As I was feeding my small herd yesterday, I was thinking along the same lines as you. Keep my heifer, sell my other bull calves, buy 5 more bred cows or heifers ready for a bull. I think this crunch will impact prices next year so if you have a way to carry cows today to bring calves to market next year, you can stand to make good money.
That is not supported by the data. USDA says the heifer numbers in feed lots is up .Large areas of the us are in worse drought conditions this year then last year.
libertygarden
Well-known member
That's exactly why it makes sense. Too many people that would otherwise keep heifers are sending them to market. So those that can afford to keep them will retain them because next year bred cows or replacement heifers will be very expensive. I have one that I was going to sell. Since all my cows are bred back and the bull is on the bench until next spring, I rather retain the daughter of the bull and swap the bull for a cow calf pair or two heifers. No need to feed a bull for 8 months when I can get bred cows or cows calf pairs very cheap. Now my bull is not registered or anything too special, but he does throw small calves and is very docile.
CowboyRam
Well-known member
I don't have anyplace to keep replacement heifers, other than turning them in with the cows. Otherwise I maybe would keep some.
