I've got 40 some odd cows all but a sprinkling have calves, and 40 some odd calves I'm back grounding. The drought has hit me hard. 5 miles either way of my farm, and the grass ain't in too bad a shape (not complaining God controls the weather). My hay made about half what it normally makes. I know I have to sell. I am going to keep the best 20 cows, and even sell thier calves early. Should I go ahead, and get started, or hope for some rain. I started feeding rolls today. I can make it spring with 20, and the rolls I have. I'm gonna lose on the ones I'm bacgrounding, I've done made my peace with that. On the 20 some odd cows, and 40 some odd calves, do I want to be the first or the last in my area to sell out. I plan on squirreling away the cash to by some short breds with next year. Just wondered what others in the same situation would do. Thes 40 calves still on the cows could get a lot bigger by November. Thier mommas could eat a lot of hay by then to.
Be the first, or be the last?
- Thread starter Bigfoot
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cow pollinater
Well-known member
I'm not in your situation but I think I'd sell now. You'll be in a world of hurt if you run the whole bunch into the ground but being prepared for the worst sets you up for the recovery period afterwards.
Last winter I saw a few guys in your shoes and when it did turn around it was to little to late. The guys that held on broke even and stressed next years crop an the guys that saw it for what it really was made a little money and are set up to make money with next years calf crop.
Last winter I saw a few guys in your shoes and when it did turn around it was to little to late. The guys that held on broke even and stressed next years crop an the guys that saw it for what it really was made a little money and are set up to make money with next years calf crop.
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
My advice is cull and cull hard, save the pasture's. Put the money up to buy back at a later date.
I have made a lot of mistake's on this journey, for once in my hammer headed life I listened to the expert's from A&M and culled 70% . Two other guy's I know culled 50 to 70% as well one culled down to 50 cow's on 400 acre's.
Our pastures look great this year compared to the guy's that tried to hang on.
This is a very good read from one of the seminars.
http://varietytesting.tamu.edu/forages/ ... rought.pdf
I have made a lot of mistake's on this journey, for once in my hammer headed life I listened to the expert's from A&M and culled 70% . Two other guy's I know culled 50 to 70% as well one culled down to 50 cow's on 400 acre's.
Our pastures look great this year compared to the guy's that tried to hang on.
This is a very good read from one of the seminars.
http://varietytesting.tamu.edu/forages/ ... rought.pdf
OP
OP
Bigfoot
Well-known member
Here's the wild card. I got .5 inches yesterday, and .5 inches today. Spring came a month early, summer came a month early, if the fall rains come a month early I might feel stupid for selling. I wish I written down the last measurable rain fall I had. It's been a while. It didn't put a dent in my grass situation. But it gives a man hope. Cutting my herd in half is a big step.
cross_7
Well-known member
if you sell now and it starts raining you'll kick yourself, if hold on and it doesn't rain you'll kick yourself.
i like your idea on keeping the best cows, but i'd keep the stockers if i could if the loss is going be enough to hurt.
the futures market is all over the place but the fact remains the cow numbers are down so once the corn levels off calf prices should stay on the high side.
i'd hang on to all the calves i could if it didn't cost me anything to hold them(interest on a note or feed)
and use this as an opportunity to cull some cows.
but as everyone has said i sure wouldn't abuse my ground
i like your idea on keeping the best cows, but i'd keep the stockers if i could if the loss is going be enough to hurt.
the futures market is all over the place but the fact remains the cow numbers are down so once the corn levels off calf prices should stay on the high side.
i'd hang on to all the calves i could if it didn't cost me anything to hold them(interest on a note or feed)
and use this as an opportunity to cull some cows.
but as everyone has said i sure wouldn't abuse my ground
bigbull338
Well-known member
since you have to sell its a easy 1.sell all your calves that are ready to go.then cull all your prob cows a week after the calves.then see whats left an cull deeper if need be.the longer you have grass the better off you are.
I know exactly how you feel. I did it from the end of June till there was no turning back last year and the rains never came. Every morning spent checking three different weather sites, pouring over long range forecasts, and talking about how good it would be if I could just hang on because cows were going to be high next year. Truth is, no one knows. I'd bet a million dollars if I had sold in July last year it would have started pouring the next day and been one of the wettest years ever. :lol:Bigfoot":2n4hz32v said:
Caustic Burno
Well-known member
Bigfoot":35l6k14p said:
A inch rain doesn't mean anything. How many inches are you behind is the real question.
I got two inches last Sept when your 50 inches behind two inches doesn't mean much.
I have recieved almost 45 inches of our normal yearly 60 inches this year and this country has not caught up.
Only you can make the decision to pull the trigger the problem with a drought it doesn't happen overnight and it doesn't end that way either.
novatech
Well-known member
I have to agree. On drought stricken ground all an inch of rain does is give you false hope. In a week you will not even see where you had any rain. On the good side when you start over you will be doing it with the best of your cattle. With everbody doing all this culling in Texas last year and you guys this year It seems like the quality of cattle overall will be a bit better in the future.Caustic Burno":6htu2lov said:
HOSS
Well-known member
bigbull338":vx08u4eu said:
I agree with bigbull. With the drought being almost nationwide I see alot of reports on the shortage of corn really playing havoc on corn prices which will drive down the price of feeder calves in addition you are strting to see more cattle producers hauling calves early or culling hard due to their grass / hay situation. I think we will continue to see this as hay was real short this year and a 4x5 round bale is bringing 50.00 already. This too will negatively impact the price at the sale barn. I know that the prices are starting to drop now and will continue to drop. I would sell the older calves and culls now while the prices are still decent and see what happens from the rain situation. At least you won't take the chance of having to sell half of your herd when prices have tanked completely. Take the money and buy back high quality, young cows next year when your pastures have improved.
snickers
Well-known member
we sold everything we had the middle of may and thank the lord we did. the pasture is gone, the hay fields are crap and we got top dollar so we couldnt have gotten out at a better time. i pray for you guys still hanging in there. my husband would of been a basket case if we were still in...
HDRider
Well-known member
Bigfoot,
What did you wind up doing?
What did you wind up doing?
kenny thomas
Well-known member
Bigfoot, if you havnt sold yet wait a few days. Looking lots better today.
Goodlife
Well-known member
snickers":99u9d4k5 said:
How are your pastures recovering Snickers? Around here the rains in Sept have been greening things up nicely. I wonder about a lot of our trees though, expecially the few pines we have. I am afraid some of them will not recover. It makes me wonder if you are considering getting back in this fall or are you going to wait until spring (or not planning on getting back in)?
OP
OP
Bigfoot
Well-known member
I've been weaning calves a little early, not much. Selling them when they settled. Sold all the calves I was back grounding. Actually sold the last few of those today. Sold a few cows. Only the ones that went longer than 13 months between calves. I rotation ally grazed some crabgrass, and planted 40 acres of rye, and 5 acres of oats. I still don't have enough hay, but I've gotten a little rain each week. I've got big hopes for my surviveing fescue. When been havering the right weather for it to start back growing.
J&D Cattle
Well-known member
I think it's great you dug in and fought it head on. We did the same thing here in MO but ours didn't involve as much work, we stumbled on some cheap and pretty good hay. We then bought several ton of DDG for sumplementing before the feed prices went way up. We kept getting just enough rain to survive and have actually only fed 1 bale so far. I'm actually thinking about picking up some heavy bred cows tomorrow night.
My drought experience was a far cry though from what others felt this year and what many many felt last so there's no comparison. I've been very lucky.
My drought experience was a far cry though from what others felt this year and what many many felt last so there's no comparison. I've been very lucky.
denvermartinfarms
Well-known member
good for you i was less than a week from feeding hay and everthing i baled this year made less than half than it ever has before.i now am back to buying calves and thinking about buying some good pairs the first of next month.i also am going to get to bale a good 20 acres int he next two weeks not much but every little bit helps.
