Angus Registrations Declining

[Brandonm22]

due to the economy and purging the herd of genetic defect carriers.

This Decade
2001 - 271,215 registrations
2002 - 281,965
2003 - 281,734
2004 - 298,770
2005 - 324,266
2006 - 347,572
2007 - 347,755
2008 - 333,766
2009 - 280,000 (projection based on ten months of reported fiscal year data)
2010 - 252,000 (estimate.....if correct next year would be lowest number since 1998).

Angus Journal pg 59 Sept 2009 'Tightening the Belt'.

Would this then be a good time too pick up Angus cows from all the dispersals OR will registrations free fall for another four or five years???

 

[RD-Sam]

Looks pretty normal, all things considered. Always bet on black! :cowboy:

 

[robert]

projecting a fall of almost 100,000 registrations in 3 years (from '07 to '10)? Has the breed really lost 100,000 cows? Would be interesting to know how many active registered cows are in the data base and perhaps compare whether the reduction is wholesale herd reductions of a fairly consistent reduction per herd (say 10% less per herd per year ongoing). I think any predictions of the death of Angus are pretty premature. :banana:

 

[Brandonm22]

The projections aren't mine, they are the American Angus Association's published projections. Even at 100,000 registrations per year, Angus would still be the largest breed association. Nobody is predicting that Charolais, Hereford, or Red Angus is going to overtake them. I suspect with this economy they will all report little (if any) growth themselves. Angus probably has not "lost" 100,000 cows, BUT there are a lot of NH and/or AM carrier cows out there whose owners probably are reluctant to register those daughters.....and have to pay for DNA testing. The AAA is also reporting a 40% decline in new memberships sold and the Assn is responding to this economic crisis by raising fees.

 

[1982vett]

Takes a few $$$$ to register an animal. Cleaning the herd of the gene defect is taking more animals out faster than they can be replaced. Seems pretty logical to me. The Association response to raise the fees should only make producers that much more reluctant to register. Thus the vortex tightens.

 

[Frankie]

due to the economy and purging the herd of genetic defect carriers.

This Decade
2001 - 271,215 registrations
2002 - 281,965
2003 - 281,734
2004 - 298,770
2005 - 324,266
2006 - 347,572
2007 - 347,755
2008 - 333,766
2009 - 280,000 (projection based on ten months of reported fiscal year data)
2010 - 252,000 (estimate.....if correct next year would be lowest number since 1998).

Angus Journal pg 59 Sept 2009 'Tightening the Belt'.

Would this then be a good time too pick up Angus cows from all the dispersals OR will registrations free fall for another four or five years???

Do you know how Angus registrations compare with other breeds? I've never been able to find other breeds' registration #s online. IMO, it's not surprising to see Angus registrations fall pretty hard with the genetic problems and the general downturn in the market.

 

[Brandonm22]

Do you know how Angus registrations compare with other breeds? I've never been able to find other breeds' registration #s online. IMO, it's not surprising to see Angus registrations fall pretty hard with the genetic problems and the general downturn in the market.

I have not seen anything recent, (Angus is really ahead of the curve publishing projections and estimates) but when Angus hit that 347,000 mark in 2006 and 2007 that was more than all other breeds combined. Angus had 51% of total beef cattle registrations.

 

[HerefordSire]

due to the economy and purging the herd of genetic defect carriers.

This Decade
2001 - 271,215 registrations
2002 - 281,965
2003 - 281,734
2004 - 298,770
2005 - 324,266
2006 - 347,572
2007 - 347,755
2008 - 333,766
2009 - 280,000 (projection based on ten months of reported fiscal year data)
2010 - 252,000 (estimate.....if correct next year would be lowest number since 1998).

Angus Journal pg 59 Sept 2009 'Tightening the Belt'.

Would this then be a good time too pick up Angus cows from all the dispersals OR will registrations free fall for another four or five years???

Good post Brandonm22!

Does the publication go back further in years than what you posted?

 

[Brandonm22]

Yes the data goes back to 1981 (209,416 registrations then, 18.7% down from 1980). The high was, of course, 2007 and the low was 133,475 in 1986. This year (2009) -16% is their worst year on a percentage basis since that 1981 blood bath.

 

[HerefordSire]

Yes the data goes back to 1981 (209,416 registrations then, 18.7% down from 1980). The high was, of course, 2007 and the low was 133,475 in 1986. This year (2009) -16% is their worst year on a percentage basis since that 1981 blood bath.

--------------------------
Low = 133,475 in 1986
High = 347,755 in 2007
---------------------------


---------------------------------------------------
214,280 is the difference
* .618 is one Fibonacci retracement factor
______
132,425
---------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
133,475
132,425
_______
265,900 is strong support which was recenty broken probably because the new increased fees. This is very very bearish.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I expect further decline after testing the 265,900 level on the way up. This would be a another good place to dump when the registrations reach this level.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[robert]

The projections aren't mine, they are the American Angus Association's published projections. Even at 100,000 registrations per year, Angus would still be the largest breed association. Nobody is predicting that Charolais, Hereford, or Red Angus is going to overtake them. I suspect with this economy they will all report little (if any) growth themselves. Angus probably has not "lost" 100,000 cows, BUT there are a lot of NH and/or AM carrier cows out there whose owners probably are reluctant to register those daughters.....and have to pay for DNA testing. The AAA is also reporting a 40% decline in new memberships sold and the Assn is responding to this economic crisis by raising fees.

I know the predictions are the AAA's.

The contentious issue is the raising of fees, which I oppose absolutely, even Obama isn't dumb enough in a down economy to raise taxes yet this is the tack chosen by the BOD. Over the past few years when revenues were high, instead of focusing on building demand for registered Angus genetics an alternative path was followed which involved all kinds of diversionary elements that 'used' the surplus in the form of bureaucracy, now times are tougher, instead of culling bureaucracy member service is being targeted, including but not limited to, membership dues increases, restriction EPDs to the member, cuts in office staff.

The raise in membership dues will directly impact the revenue for the Angus Journal which is supposedly a for profit entity.

 

[SRBeef]

Does declining REGISTRATIONS necessarily mean total breed (relative) numbers are decreasing? I know quite few folks with both Hereford and Angus herds who do not register an animal. Unless you are a breeder why bother?

I want to buy a registered bull so I know what I've got. However I am pretty well convinced that I am going to have to develop my own cows to get them the way I want them.

If I am selling calves to feedlots or beef to consumers why bother registering anything? My goal is to stay pure Hereford but I want to see the end product the way my customers want it on their plate, a piece of paper doesn't taste very good!

Folks have also been talking about declining Hereford registrations. That may be true but I don't think that necessarily means the Hereford breed is in decline, nor Angus.

While the entire US cattle herd numbers are declining, registrations declining at a higher rate may just be because fewer folks are choosing to register their cattle. Or am I missing something? Jim

 

[HerefordSire]

Yes the data goes back to 1981 (209,416 registrations then, 18.7% down from 1980). The high was, of course, 2007 and the low was 133,475 in 1986. This year (2009) -16% is their worst year on a percentage basis since that 1981 blood bath.

--------------------------
Low = 133,475 in 1986
High = 347,755 in 2007
---------------------------


---------------------------------------------------
214,280 is the difference
* .618 is one Fibonacci retracement factor
______
132,425
---------------------------------------------------


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
133,475
132,425
_______
265,900 is strong support which was recenty broken probably because the new increased fees. This is very very bearish.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I expect further decline after testing the 265,900 level on the way up. This would be a another good place to dump when the registrations reach this level.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I wrote prematurely because the last number reported was an estimate. Keep your eye on that number when the totals come out.

 

[Frankie]

I have not seen anything recent, (Angus is really ahead of the curve publishing projections and estimates) but when Angus hit that 347,000 mark in 2006 and 2007 that was more than all other breeds combined. Angus had 51% of total beef cattle registrations.

You know, I didn't know that (bolded comment) for a long time. I just assumed all breed associations provided the info that the AAA does.

I found this on Hereford registrations:

The second largest cattle breed in the U.S., Hereford reports 64,293 registrations and 31,747 transfers with 103,093 cows on inventory. The Association has 3,434 active adult members and 2,256 active junior members — both an increase compared to fiscal year 2008.

I thought Charlaois had surpassed Herefords in registrations and was now the second largest breed?

http://www.hereford.org/newsroom/09_ahayearend.doc

 

[ga. prime]

Ok, there is a simple answer to this as usual. Superimpose in your mind a graph of the rise and fall of the number of angus registrations over a graph of feeder calf prices for the years in question. You figure it out.

 

[ollie?]

Do you know how Angus registrations compare with other breeds?

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Contact: Angie Stump Denton [email protected] or (785) 363-7263
Sept. 9, 2009

AHA Year End Report Shows
Increase In Hereford Registrations, Membership
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Hereford breeders continued to experience an increased demand for Hereford genetics during the 2009 American Hereford Association (AHA) fiscal year that ended Aug. 31. The Association experienced an increase in registrations and membership as production sale prices remained consistent with previous years.
The second largest cattle breed in the U.S., Hereford reports 64,293 registrations and 31,747 transfers with 103,093 cows on inventory. The Association has 3,434 active adult members and 2,256 active junior members — both an increase compared to fiscal year 2008.
"The year end figures are very exciting considering the state of the economy and the decreasing national cow herd size," says Craig Huffhines, AHA executive vice president. "Hereford breeders continue to see a shift in demand as more and more commercial producers are realizing the benefits of heterosis and incorporating Hereford genetics in their breeding programs."
To aid in this shift, AHA continues to participate in real-world research projects that validate the value of Hereford genetics. In April, results of the Circle A Ranch Heterosis Project were released that documented Hereford-sired females have a 7% advantage in conception rate, net income of $51 more per cow per year and a significantly higher selling price for bred heifers when compared to straight-Angus females. For more about the Circle A project and other research projects visit Hereford.org.
Hereford breeders continue to recognize the advantages of artificial insemination (AI). Since 2003, the number of AI calves registered has increased by 33%. Hereford semen demand in the commercial industry is also increasing. According to the National Association of Animal Breeders (NAAB), Hereford semen sales increased 8.4% in 2008, despite an overall decrease in domestic beef semen sales.
Helping with this progress has been the AHA's Whole Herd Total Performance Records (TPR™) program. Now nine years old, the program has helped the AHA and Hereford breeders build a database that documents the breed's strengths. More and more Hereford breeders continue to go above status quo and
-more-

submit ultrasound data, body condition scores, udder scores and cow weights, which all add to the integrity and accuracy of the AHA database.
A total of 164 Hereford production sales were reported by AHA fieldmen this fiscal year. Bull sales averaged $3,194 and females $2,811.
Also noted at the fiscal year's end are top registrations by state and by breeder. Texas topped the list of registrations per state at 8,707 with Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota and Oklahoma rounding out the top five.
The top five breeders by registration numbers were W4 Ranch, Morgan, Texas, with 742 head; Rausch Herefords, Hoven, S.D., 643; Upstream Ranch, Taylor, Neb., 594; Imig Herefords, Lakeside, Neb., 469; and Star Lake Cattle Ranch, Skiatook, Okla., 406.