Today's workshop

[bball]

I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.

I couldn't agree more.

x2

 

[denvermartinfarms]

if managed properly, very good money can and is made at ALL points in the cycle.

Very true. It's simply a matter of knowing your operating costs, and then when to buy and when to sell...and what modifications you need to tweak to maximize efficiency of your operation for where we are in the cycle.

Your exactly right. But it's also that way now, even in a consistantly good market the same things don't always work. I buy plain bull calves, work them and sell them anywhere from 35 days to sevarel months later. The time I keep them changes all the time and the size I buy each time ranges from 3wts to 7wts depending on what works, I have ways that I figure what makes the most sense to buy and it's rarely the same for very long.

 

[greybeard]

For all of my life, the large % of US farms have been small, so this "most farms/ranches run less than 100 head per farm" thing is nothing new. The difference today, are where they are located.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Good thread, but I don't agree with calling this high artificial. It happened and the prices are real. Will they last, of course not. Trends are trends, prices will go up and down over time. Plenty influences can affect the market, none will last forever but it doesn't make them artificial.

I agree that it's not artificial. It's the result of increasing demand for a product combined with a decreasing supply. I also agree that it won't last forever. I don't know how far, how fast, our when prices will fall, but I'll be pleasantly astonished if they don't.

With that being said, I don't think the drop will be catastrophic for the people who are in the cattle business for the long haul. The ones who are looking at the record prices and jumping in with borrowed money, on the other hand, will probably be in trouble.

Do you think if the drought had not happened and forced the sell off of 60% of the state herd prices would be where they are today.
No way would they be, this high is artificial and actually detrimental to us all.
We are forcing the consumer to look to alternative sources of protein.
This wasn't created by demand. It was created because we can not supply the consumer.

 

[Rafter S]

The drought forced the decreasing supply I referred to. Maybe we don't have the same understanding of "artificial". To me that conjures images of people manipulating the commodities market. I only meant that the current cattle market is a result of real world conditions.

 

[jallen]

That drought happened, it took place in the real world and is being felt now. Artificial is flat out the wrong thing to call it. Maybe call it short lived or rare, but its not artificial.

 

[Caustic Burno]

For all of my life, the large % of US farms have been small, so this "most farms/ranches run less than 100 head per farm" thing is nothing new. The difference today, are where they are located.

True the change is in technology and freight to market along with regulation.
Makes it harder for the independent and small operator to compete.
Hard to sell a cow without a customer or you burn up the profit getting it to market.
Look at the feedlot, salebarn and slaughter plant closings over the last 30 years.
Regulation has forced a lot of this as compliance cost pushing the industry to minimize
feedlot and slaughter facilities. Every time one closes and pushes more to a central location
is another nail in the coffin.
You can deny it, ignore it, still happening.
I have seen the enemy and it is us.
The push is on to be BQA certified bet in ten years it is mandatory and you have to pay to be inspected and certified.
Same thing stated out with pesticide herbicide look where we are at today all in the name of food and worker
safety.

 

[Caustic Burno]

That drought happened, it took place in the real world and is being felt now. Artificial is flat out the wrong thing to call it. Maybe call it short lived or rare, but its not artificial.

OK lets call it rare as we never seen a drought of this proportion since the Dust Bowl.
Had it only been Texas in 2011 we wouldn't have these prices.
Had in been in Mo only would I sold off 70% of my herd no.
Expanding through most of the central US created these prices not the market.

 

[Caustic Burno]

GB I learned last week that you will be getting issued in the near future an Applicators license with a bar code
number on it assigned to just the applicator.
When you attend a CEU course upon completion you will swipe you license entering
you current CEU status into the system instantly.
There will be no more fudging CEU hours.
On top of that they are starting random inspection of your records this year.
Has your herd been certified TB free mine has. If you think that is free call me and I will let you in
on the secret it's not. Herd was quarantined until completion of a certified TB free herd you will comply.
I won the lottery I was selected as x percent of the state herd to be tested at random.
You can bet that is going to end up being mandatory as well.

 

[greybeard]

Not any different than any other part of agriculture CB. People were making $$ on beef when they had to drive them hundreds of miles to stockyards/feedlot. Your produce comes from the Valley or Calif, or Florida--your eggs are probably not locally laid either, and yet them producers are still making $ at it even factoring in the shipping costs. Loggers around here complain that all the sawmills and plywood mills shut down and they have to haul logs so far, but they are still at it every day. The logger takes a hit, and the landowner takes a hit, but they're both still making $. It's the same with beef. Maybe we won't make as much as when every medium sized town had a salebarn and there were lots of feedlots all over Texas, but the truth is, we've just been lucky it was this good for this long. Cow folks hate 2 things.
They hate the way things are.
and:
They hate change.
When change comes, everybody wrings their hands and cries the sky is gonna fall, but it never has.

 

[Caustic Burno]

:help:

 

[greybeard]

GB I learned last week that you will be getting issued in the near future an Applicators license with a bar code
number on it assigned to just the applicator.
When you attend a CEU course upon completion you will swipe you license entering
you current CEU status into the system instantly.
There will be no more fudging CEU hours.
On top of that they are starting random inspection of your records this year.
Has your herd been certified TB free mine has. If you think that is free call me and I will let you in
on the secret it's not. Herd was quarantined until completion of a certified TB free herd you will comply.
I won the lottery I was selected as x percent of the state herd to be tested at random.
You can bet that is going to end up being mandatory as well.

Is there a downside to any of that other than the cost of the TB testing?
(I don't cheat on CEUs--it's just too easy to get them legit)
Everything I've heard about the random herd test for Bovine TB says "at no cost to herd owner".

"Random selection of herds was seen as the most equitable way to complete a statistically valid disease surveillance of purebred and seed stock cattle herds. By mid-April, a computer program will pick names from a database listing purebred and seed stock producers. We then will contact the ranchers to line up the test that will be conducted by private veterinarians at no cost to the herd owner," says Dr. Bob Hillman, Texas state veterinarian..

 

[Rafter S]

In regards to the posts about so many sale barns closing, I suppose that's just part of a cycle. It was before my time, but the older folks told me that back when my part of the country was almost all cotton and corn, with a few cows along the creeks and in the woods, the closest place to sell cattle was at Port City Stockyards in Houston. And that was way before the Interstate highways, and Highway 6 sure wasn't the 4-lane divided highway that it is now. That trip to Houston and back took all day.

 

[Caustic Burno]

GB what they don't tell on that TB test there is only a few vets testing on the "no cost".
Upon calling to schedule I was informed he could get to my place in the next three months.
Your herd is under quarantine until all testing is proved negative and signed off by the vet.
Options pen and pay the local vet or haul the cows to him or jam your head up your butt and wait
on the state.
I wasn't willing to have my cattle locked up one day by the state much less than 90 days or more.
Guess I am just sensitive as they ran me out of business the first time when they where quarantining
it under the Bangs program in an up cycle.
After 9 months of quarantine I hauled every one to Slaughter.
Not that I had a lot back in those days.

 

[1982vett]

In regards to the posts about so many sale barns closing, I suppose that's just part of a cycle. It was before my time, but the older folks told me that back when my part of the country was almost all cotton and corn, with a few cows along the creeks and in the woods, the closest place to sell cattle was at Port City Stockyards in Houston. And that was way before the Interstate highways, and Highway 6 sure wasn't the 4-lane divided highway that it is now. That trip to Houston and back took all day.

Hahah....that trip still takes almost all day....4 lane divided hasn't helped all that much.

 

[Caustic Burno]

In regards to the posts about so many sale barns closing, I suppose that's just part of a cycle. It was before my time, but the older folks told me that back when my part of the country was almost all cotton and corn, with a few cows along the creeks and in the woods, the closest place to sell cattle was at Port City Stockyards in Houston. And that was way before the Interstate highways, and Highway 6 sure wasn't the 4-lane divided highway that it is now. That trip to Houston and back took all day.

Cattle were never big in that area then that was rice and row crop
as I mentioned earlier all along the Gulf Coast counties .
How much row crop is going on now?
I wonder to what happen to Port City.
http://www.sealynews.com/news/article_d ... b10f3.html

Owner of Port City
"Sartwelle cited long-term declining cattle numbers in their trade area, increased operating costs, and higher valued land as reasons for taking this action. The spreading Houston metropolitan influence has had profound influences on cattle numbers, competition for labor, and on real estate values."

 

[TexasBred]

Do you think if the drought had not happened and forced the sell off of 60% of the state herd prices would be where they are today.
No way would they be, this high is artificial and actually detrimental to us all.
We are forcing the consumer to look to alternative sources of protein.
This wasn't created by demand. It was created because we can not supply the consumer.

I disagree only with the use of the word "artificial". What you see IS the market today and we all understand that the market is controlled by many other factors besides the quality of the cow or calf. It won't last forever and when it turns down the big downturn won't be artificial either. Just an adjustment in prices based on outside influences. Always been that way and always will unless gov't steps in for some reason like they have with the stock market and created the huge upturn . THAT is a true artificial market !!!! And when it crashes it will crash BIG !!!!

 

[Caustic Burno]

GB the ceu's was on the honor system when licence renewal came and you applied on line.
Guy I know applied got his and got caught when they audited the system hadn't been keeping up
his ceu's. Lost his license called and ask if I would supervise him to spray his place wasn't happy when I said no
way. I know more that were doing the same thing blowing off the ceu courses.
I know it is legal for me to supervise other operations I am not willing to keep up my education and records for
people to lazy or paying the cost to remain certified.

 

[Brute 23]

The cattle market is not artificial.... inflated maybe... but it is real and not propped up by any outside force.

The cattle market will definitely change over the next few years. A lot of the places that are marginal for cattle will be pushed out but the more profitable areas will boom. I have probably 4-5 sale barns with in 50miles, 3 are with in 30.

Its always been about keeping inputs costs as low as possible because we have little control over the market. People who have been raising cattle generationally have seen these changes before. Its the only way to combat market change long term.

 

[greybeard]

I wonder to what happen to Port City.
http://www.sealynews.com/news/article_d ... b10f3.html

Owner of Port City
"Sartwelle cited long-term declining cattle numbers in their trade area, increased operating costs, and higher valued land as reasons for taking this action. The spreading Houston metropolitan influence has had profound influences on cattle numbers, competition for labor, and on real estate values."

That's the "new" one in Sealy.
Port City yards used to be in Houston itself, somewhere around Calhoun. It moved to Sealy in '68.

portcity

http://www.texasarchive.org/library/ind ... 2011_02281

An interesting read:
http://www.livestockweekly.com/papers/9 ... sartwe.asp