Today's workshop

[Caustic Burno]

The amount of beef being ground has been concerning to me for a long time. That kinda beef can come from anywhere. Imports will have to rise, if they haven't already.

Imports are up for sure.

My point on the market is this, I know they will get cheaper, no question of that, there's alot more room to get cheaper than there is to go up. But I believe the cattle costing 3.00$ now are not going to be 80$ or 1.00$ again.

Todays prediction chart had it 2 to 2.50 a pound on 4 wts.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

The amount of beef being ground has been concerning to me for a long time. That kinda beef can come from anywhere. Imports will have to rise, if they haven't already.

Imports are up for sure.

My point on the market is this, I know they will get cheaper, no question of that, there's alot more room to get cheaper than there is to go up. But I believe the cattle costing 3.00$ now are not going to be 80$ or 1.00$ again.

Todays prediction chart had it 2 to 2.50 a pound on 4 wts.

So if it has them at 2.00$ to 2.50$ and today they are 2.75 to 3.25$. The worst they expect is a 75 cent drop. I hope they are right, that's fine with me.

 

[Caustic Burno]

That is what I said earlier in the post 1200 dollar 4wts are predicted to be 800.
33% is a heck of a drop.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

That is what I said earlier in the post 1200 dollar 4wts are predicted to be 800.
33% is a heck of a drop.

Yes, it's alot, but it won't ruin the business.

 

[Caustic Burno]

That is what I said earlier in the post 1200 dollar 4wts are predicted to be 800.
33% is a heck of a drop.

Yes, it's alot, but it won't ruin the business.

It will never pencil out on 3K+ replacements being sold today.
That cow will be a loser for the rest of her life.
Secondly that is on premium calves not low yield or grade.
One of the takeaways today was to survive you had better be
producing high grade pounds.
This is not the old west the cowboy is dead and the scrape by cattleman is riding after him.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

That is what I said earlier in the post 1200 dollar 4wts are predicted to be 800.
33% is a heck of a drop.

Yes, it's alot, but it won't ruin the business.

It will never pencil out on 3K+ replacements being sold today.
That cow will be a loser for the rest of her life.
Secondly that is on premium calves not low yield or grade.
One of the takeaways today was to survive you had better be
producing high grade pounds.
This is not the old west the cowboy is dead and the scrape by cattleman is riding after him.

I agree with that 100%, I don't think a 3000$ bred cow makes very much sense in this market we have today.

It was just over a year ago that we saw the first 2.50$ 4wts, it was unbelievably good at the time, I don't know about everyone else, but in the last 12 months my expenses haven't went up enough that a 2.50$ 4wt calf wouldn't work about the same as they did a year ago. Now the next 5 years may be a very different story.

 

[bball]

CB, darn good point about producing QUALITY lbs of beef if you expect to draw top market prices. I think some of the folks that have been benefiting from a reduced supply/increased demand and moving some mediocre animals are going to find themselves in a whole different position in the next couple years.

 

[Caustic Burno]

With the technology in the business today the Cattleman better educate himself on the better cow.
Since 1970 the industry has exploded with technology producing better grade meat and more
pounds. We started out scratching our head and butt to pick a bull to EPD's, sexed semen,
AI, invitro to genome mapping.

 

[Caustic Burno]

CB, darn good point about producing QUALITY lbs of beef if you expect to draw top market prices. I think some of the folks that have been benefiting from a reduced supply/increased demand and moving some mediocre animals are going to find themselves in a whole different position in the next couple years.

This even applies to the hamburger market as well.
You now have box meat being marketed and graded as ground sirloin or chuck as well.
Now at the feedlot that calf will be put with a group of peers that will grade.
They will be micro chipped and the lot will know the gain % on days of feed.
Every time that calf sticks his head in the feed trough it is read.
The calf will be graded by ultra sound while on feed and then again on the rail.
As Highgrit stated you can not beat a man at his game.
This is down to a science and has been for years.
The order buyer is filling an order that his employer wants not buying just anything you haul to the barn.
Now there are buyers for low yield and dressing cattle as well for chili, dog or cat food.
No one should want to be in this group.
This is simple economics 101 the buyer will pay according what he can make off the product after
his input cost and profit margins based on demand.

 

[Jabes0623]

If people could accurately predict any market they wouldn't be talking about it they'd be playing it. You make a heck of a lot more $ doing something than talking about it.

Now that's not to say cattle prices won't go down, they will. But someone acting as though they can actually predict what a market is going to look like 6 months from now is rather ridiculous, 5 years is just absurd. There's far too many unknowns.

 

[Caustic Burno]

If people could accurately predict any market they wouldn't be talking about it they'd be playing it. You make a be nice of a lot more $ doing something than talking about it.

Now that's not to say cattle prices won't go down, they will. But someone acting as though they can actually predict what a market is going to look like 6 months from now is rather ridiculous, 5 years is just absurd. There's far too many unknowns.

Not really as 7 dollar a pound hamburger is not sustainable in this economy.
We are not the only protein source in 2000 we were almost having to pay the barn to
take the cattle. Wasn't uncommon for a 1200 lb cow to bring 300 dollars.
The market was showing signs of strengthening and prices were coming up then in 2006
ethanol hit driving corn prices up and feeders down.
Again this an artificial high due to drought in the mid west beef country . Now California millions of
dairy hamburger lbs have come off the market with the drought out west. Those people will restock
and those bull calves will enter the market driving prices down.
We are a slow moving industry providing 1 product a year if lucky from the cow.
The Chicken is producing a product a day to 21 days.
The Sow three litters a year both of these industries are riding a high as well filling our void right now.
To grow we have to remove product from the market not so with poultry or swine.

 

[Jabes0623]

If people could accurately predict any market they wouldn't be talking about it they'd be playing it. You make a be nice of a lot more $ doing something than talking about it.

Now that's not to say cattle prices won't go down, they will. But someone acting as though they can actually predict what a market is going to look like 6 months from now is rather ridiculous, 5 years is just absurd. There's far too many unknowns.

Not really as 7 dollar a pound hamburger is not sustainable in this economy.
We are not the only protein source in 2000 we were almost having to pay the barn to
take the cattle. Wasn't uncommon for a 1200 lb cow to bring 300 dollars.
The market was showing signs of strengthening and prices were coming up then in 2006
ethanol hit driving corn prices up and feeders down.
Again this an artificial high due to drought in the mid west beef country . Now California millions of
dairy hamburger lbs have come off the market with the drought out west. Those people will restock
and those bull calves will enter the market driving prices down.
We are a slow moving industry providing 1 product a year if lucky from the cow.
The Chicken is producing a product a day to 21 days.
The Sow three litters a year both of these industries are riding a high as well filling our void right now.
To grow we have to remove product from the market not so with poultry or swine.

You're taking far too narrow a view. The outside factors that influence the price of any commodity are so numerous one could never account for them all.

You mentioned the drought in CA. What if that drought moves East & the entire Midwest is also drought stricken for years? Do you know how much it's going to rain in Iowa in 2018?

What about the import/export of beef? If the USA stops importing beef from a few countries that will have a dramatic effect on the price of beef. The same is true if a couple of countries no longer import American beef. The reasons for either of those actions are many disease, war, trade embargo, another Obama EO etc etc.

There's no way you, I, or the person running the seminar the OP went to can possibly accurately predict the price of beef 1,2,3 or 10 years from now becasue they don't have the information needed to do so. No one does becasue you can't predict the future, unless your Ms Cleo.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I know this as have being an operator for more than one or two cycles.
People like you make wonder why I even try.

 

[Jabes0623]

I know this as have being an operator for more than one or two cycles.
People like you make wonder why I even try.

My apologies, I had no idea facts & a well reasoned polite debate against your point of view would hurt your feelings.

Again, I'm not disputing that cattle prices will go down. There's no doubt that they will. However saying in 5 years they'll be down 33% is nothing more than a guess. They may be up 33%, we just don't know. And we won't until we get there.

Guess I'm an optimist.

 

[hillbilly beef man]

Denver I am convinced in your lifetime cattle operations as we know them will become extinct.
It has already started with womb to tomb cattle operations.
These will be ran like the chicken and pork industries owned by large corporations.
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/no-rancher ... t-ain-t-so

Cb, I listened to a speaker from UT that said the same thing. His message was that packers and feedlots are going to be very selective about the genetics that they buy in the future. As small producers we will have to decide whether we try to stay in the game through bettering the quality of our herds or quit. A little gloom and doom in his message, but quite a bit of truth as well.

 

[Caustic Burno]

Denver I am convinced in your lifetime cattle operations as we know them will become extinct.
It has already started with womb to tomb cattle operations.
These will be ran like the chicken and pork industries owned by large corporations.
http://beefmagazine.com/blog/no-rancher ... t-ain-t-so

Cb, I listened to a speaker from UT that said the same thing. His message was that packers and feedlots are going to be very selective about the genetics that they buy in the future. As small producers we will have to decide whether we try to stay in the game through bettering the quality of our herds or quit. A little gloom and doom in his message, but quite a bit of truth as well.

The one thing I am sure since I started is the only constant has been change and run with the herd or
get eaten. Anyone can make a cow calf operation pay out today in this cycle.
I realized a long time ago when beef and forage workshops started being offered if I went to them and retained 5%
of the knowledge presented I was ahead of my local competition.
I haven't made the three day workshop they offer at College Station every year but I try missed last year
I plan on attending this year again. The best part of that workshop is you can sign up for sessions you think you need
most.
Twenty years ago I wouldn't even considered being BQA certified.

 

[Jogeephus]

I try not to predict the future prices. Only thing I can control is my cost of operation and paying high dollars for a replacement is not something I intend to do. What gives me reassurance that prices will stay strong is the $8 chickens I see at the grocery store. Seems in the past when beef went up chicken got cheap. Haven't seen this happen yet. Will it happen? Maybe. Maybe not. The poultry business is pretty well a monopoly now so why would they cut their own throats? Also, feed should remain cheap with this new farm bill.

 

[Caustic Burno]

I try not to predict the future prices. Only thing I can control is my cost of operation and paying high dollars for a replacement is not something I intend to do. What gives me reassurance that prices will stay strong is the $8 chickens I see at the grocery store. Seems in the past when beef went up chicken got cheap. Haven't seen this happen yet. Will it happen? Maybe. Maybe not. The poultry business is pretty well a monopoly now so why would they cut their own throats? Also, feed should remain cheap with this new farm bill.

The future prediction for prices in your area was the bleakest due to freight cost to the feed lot.
Does that mean you are going out of business of course not but your calves are going to take a bigger hit
the farther you get from the feedlot. Only way to make that up is with quality and pounds.

 

[bball]

I know this as have being an operator for more than one or two cycles.
People like you make wonder why I even try.

My apologies, I had no idea facts & a well reasoned polite debate against your point of view would hurt your feelings.

Again, I'm not disputing that cattle prices will go down. There's no doubt that they will. However saying in 5 years they'll be down 33% is nothing more than a guess. They may be up 33%, we just don't know. And we won't until we get there.

Guess I'm an optimist.

I agree there are many variables, however, you better believe when the CME talks trends for ANY commodity and futures, they are well thought out..the 33% was an example (atleast that's how I took it). And if you don't fully believe the beef market has trends and cycles, I invite you to do some research over the last hundred years, there is a distinct ten year pattern to it..pay particular attention to the beginning of a decade, the middle and the end. You will see the pattern quickly..I agree you can't predict weather/disease etc, but you better believe the market has the inside track when it comes to info on imports/exports. So they can make projections with a certain degree of accuracy..when the prices correct(and they will correct) I don't want to be the guy who just bought a trailer load of $3000 heifers.

 

[Gators Rule]

Actually, the market is not rocket science, and is more predictable than one might think. The recent real estate crash of a few years ago, and then the subsequent stock market, and then the "bailouts" were quite predictable. The problem was too many people were trying to squeeze the last dollar out of the boom! They were literally caught with their pants down, and then many were too hard headed, and refused to cut their losses when the decline began. The cattle market will eventually do the same thing once pastures are restocked from the droughts....assuming another one isn't around the corner.

Of course I don't know when the fall will occur though. I will leave that up to the rocket scientists. :mrgreen: Greed and narrow mindedness will always be a shortfall for humanity.