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Just hold on a little while is prices start declineng you will see some panic selling and can get some good ones at a reduced price.
 
Like everybody, I know they will go down, and I'm not looking forward to it. Has anybody figured the break even point on a 550 pound weaned calf. It's up there these days. Luckily fuel, and grain are cheap at the moment. My other inputs are not though.
 
tuongtrante1":3ft3042h said:
Like everybody, I know they will go down, and I'm not looking forward to it. Has anybody figured the break even point on a 550 pound weaned calf. It's up there these days. Luckily fuel, and grain are cheap at the moment. My other inputs are not though.
Click to expand...

Thats going to completely depend on how you run your operation. I have tightened things up quite a bit this year compared to the past 2. All my hay is up, grain's in the wagons, bills are all paid, and if nothing changes (barring unforeseen problems) $442 will be my break even for each calf weaned. Some folks will be under that, and some will be over. Everything over 442 will be gravy for me. I dont fudge the numbers. I try to be precise as i can with expenses. Can't run welfare beef. Had a good run on hay and caught a super deal early. Geography matters also. Folks farther south can do it for cheaper usually..only help we get up here is corn stalks and bean stubble til the snow gets too deep, but every month i dont feed an abundance of hay is money saved.
 
Mine is going to come in low due to all the rain and not being able to fertilize or lime. That will have a later cost.
I will run the numbers for the first half in a few days. Rough estimate close to a dollar a day .
 
Caustic Burno":1n7n6vt9 said:
Mine is going to come in low due to all the rain and not being able to fertilize or lime. That will have a later cost.
I will run the numbers for the first half in a few days. Rough estimate close to a dollar a day .
Click to expand...

With the fall projections, that shouldn't be too rough. Getting down under 1.30 a day is a best for me. Was worried my heifer buyer wasn't going to be in for it this fall, but he has assured he still wants all the heifers.
 
Caustic Burno said:
Mine is going to come in low due to all the rain and not being able to fertilize or lime. That will have a later cost.
I will run the numbers for the first half in a few days. Rough estimate close to a dollar a day .
Click to expand...

That dollar a day is where I aim, before labour and finance. Finance is my major cost. last year our growing season was not four months long, makes it tough, need a sharp pencil.
 
I don't know I purchase/sell there sentiment available. A consistent multi year decrease appears to be impossible. Where do they figure costs will be toward the end if that?
 
Caustic Burno said:
Was largely on retaining and buying replacements.
Average cost to raise a heifer was 1900 the most to pay for a replacement
was 2400 with the five year forecast.
Forecast was the market steady this year then declining till 2021.
Click to expand...
Still think the decline will be till 2021? Or do you believe it will continue to decline
 
DCA farm said:
Caustic Burno said:
Was largely on retaining and buying replacements.
Average cost to raise a heifer was 1900 the most to pay for a replacement
was 2400 with the five year forecast.
Forecast was the market steady this year then declining till 2021.
Click to expand...
Still think the decline will be till 2021? Or do you believe it will continue to decline
Click to expand...

It might be longer if the monopoly on the packers is not broken.
Brazil is in the drivers seat right now.
The biggest issue is we are not on Americans radar. Americans don't care where their food comes from as long as it's cheap.
The concerning part to me is if enough of the 50 and under crowd get out so goes the sale barn.
 
Caustic Burno said:
DCA farm said:
Caustic Burno said:
Was largely on retaining and buying replacements.
Average cost to raise a heifer was 1900 the most to pay for a replacement
was 2400 with the five year forecast.
Forecast was the market steady this year then declining till 2021.
Click to expand...
Still think the decline will be till 2021? Or do you believe it will continue to decline
Click to expand...

It might be longer if the monopoly on the packers is not broken.
Brazil is in the drivers seat right now.
The biggest issue is we are not on Americans radar. Americans don't care where their food comes from as long as it's cheap.
The concerning part to me is if enough of the 50 and under crowd get out so goes the sale barn.
Click to expand...
Hopefully it doesn't get that bad I seen where someone is reopening the barn in dequincy Louisiana again supposed to start having cow sales in spring on 2020 they have already started having horse sales
 
Rereading this thread... and seeing where so many of the drop in prices talk, all came true and now with the droughts and the declining numbers, we are going back to the high side again... and right about a 10 year cycle... all outside factors taken into account. Granted no one "saw" the Ukraine situation back then... and NO ONE even dreamed that the fuel and fertilizer prices were going to go insane with the BS that the current political situation has created... and that most of us still here are STILL getting OLDER... that haven't gone out... there will be a bigger exit I think this time... the housing growth spurts and all just are not going to get torn down and so more land is being lost to farming/ranching operations...
 
farmerjan said:
Rereading this thread... and seeing where so many of the drop in prices talk, all came true and now with the droughts and the declining numbers, we are going back to the high side again... and right about a 10 year cycle... all outside factors taken into account. Granted no one "saw" the Ukraine situation back then... and NO ONE even dreamed that the fuel and fertilizer prices were going to go insane with the BS that the current political situation has created... and that most of us still here are STILL getting OLDER... that haven't gone out... there will be a bigger exit I think this time... the housing growth spurts and all just are not going to get torn down and so more land is being lost to farming/ranching operations...
Click to expand...
I've gotta go back thru and read it all.
 
Caustic Burno said:
Was largely on retaining and buying replacements.
Average cost to raise a heifer was 1900 the most to pay for a replacement
was 2400 with the five year forecast.
Forecast was the market steady this year then declining till 2021.
Click to expand...
What kind of replacement is this - open 15 month old? what would this number be today??
 
Caustic Burno said:
Not uncommon for a 14-16 month old to be open.
With my current inputs be close to 2K to raise the retained heifer.
Click to expand...
I agree on the 15 month old ready to breed. Just wasnt sure what age these replacement costs were based on. 20 months old and bred is a lot more valuable than an open yearling to me.

I am working to offer a moderate sized, maternal animal that is designed to be a replacement but any time you discuss selling replacement heifers, nobody wants to spend the cash because they think they can raise them a lot cheaper. For years, folks have been saying it makes more sense to buy but average ranchers aren't believing it from what I can see.
 
Aero said:
I agree on the 15 month old ready to breed. Just wasnt sure what age these replacement costs were based on. 20 months old and bred is a lot more valuable than an open yearling to me.

I am working to offer a moderate sized, maternal animal that is designed to be a replacement but any time you discuss selling replacement heifers, nobody wants to spend the cash because they think they can raise them a lot cheaper. For years, folks have been saying it makes more sense to buy but average ranchers aren't believing it from what I can see.
Click to expand...
That's because they don't have a clue what the daily( yearly) cost of a cow is.
A lot of people are raising welfare cattle.
 

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