To retain, or not to retain ?

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Should drive up the price of cows in a couple years?
Maybe?
Hopefully?
 
With no way to stop swine flu - - folks will have soon these choices:

1) breaded chicken fingers
2) fake meat
3) dry turkey
4) greasy cheese burgers

Hard choice. :roll:
 
Higher cow kill, and higher heifer placements into feedlots, will both increase meat production short term. It will take a couple years for the price pendulum to swing.

The way I look at it is - - if a below average cow does not make me money at current market prices, then why retain her? Better off medium term retaining a heifer and growing a few more **** fed soybeans.
 
I'm holding most heifers. Gonna cull a few real old cows. Plan on holding steers till after Thanksgiving should be around 725 by then, hopefully prices rebound a little
 
There is a higher number of heifers going on feed, so fewer being retained. We are holding more right now. I look for this trend to continue, with a few more going out that will also lower the number of cows around to have more calves. The loss of all the cows and calves last year to the flooding in upper midwest states, also dropped the number of cattle and the subsequent calves in the future. I think there will be a bigger demand for breds in 2021-2022 as the numbers get sorted out. Plus the greater demand by countries that depended on pork that will not be there in the future, and they are going to be turning to chicken and beef for their protein. There was something on the news this morning about china dropping the ban on chicken that has been in effect for several years. Reason given was the need for a source of protein to replace the pork.

Right now breds here are cheap, people don't have the money to buy them when they can't get enough from their calves to pay their normal bills. I watched some heifers bring 1050 which I though was good, but the older bred cows, and some with calves were only bringing 5-700. Even if "one and done" they still could have made some money if you have the hay. Problem there is alot of places were getting very dry/drought conditions, and many in this area were feeding some hay already. I have picked up a couple in the past year, and they have done pretty good with our grass being more than adequate.

Going to wean a group this coming weekend, the cows were 5+ months bred back in early Sept so will be over 7 months mostly now. Got the bulls in late at this one place last year, so unfortunately will be having Jan/Feb calves instead of them calving Nov/Dec. But the heifer calves have benefited from staying on the cows, cows are all in very good flesh, so not a big problem. We have about 25-30 steers at another place, spring calves, that will be coming off probably after Thanksgiving as there is grass there yet to rotate them to. We are going to have to sell some stuff to pay end of the year bills, but I am thinking we will be holding more heifers than not this year.

We have been culling some cows along and have another 6 or 8 that will go whenever we get them off pasture. They have calves, and both will go. Have cut our numbers from near 200 cows down to about 150 right now. Don't have but about 10-15 heifers to be bred, we had sold quite a few, so those numbers will be down. I am thinking that we will have some bred cows and/or heifers to sell in the spring of 2021 and if prices are decent, may cut more of our herd.
 
I can't ship my best heifer calves. I will ship a older cow, even if she is bred, before I eliminate my future genetic base. I don't buy the best bulls I can afford just to sell all their offspring as stockers.

But don't worry, lots of the neighbors have shipped all their calves and are slowly working their way out of the business, so all North America should see a slow steady decline in cow numbers for many years.
 
Aaron said:
I can't ship my best heifer calves. I will ship a older cow, even if she is bred, before I eliminate my future genetic base. I don't buy the best bulls I can afford just to sell all their offspring as stockers.

How do your sim hereford heifers compare to the straight bred hereford heifers ?
 
If I was a cattle trader I'd be buying up a lot of stuff and hold on for a couple years and sell when this market comes back but I'm not so we are retaining heifers and culling some older cows
 
Stocker Steve said:
Aaron said:
I can't ship my best heifer calves. I will ship a older cow, even if she is bred, before I eliminate my future genetic base. I don't buy the best bulls I can afford just to sell all their offspring as stockers.

How do your sim hereford heifers compare to the straight bred hereford heifers ?

The purchased ones are only 1/8 - 1/4 blood at best. You wouldn't even be able to pick them out of the herd. Their calves are good. Some of the biggest, but not all. They do have good milk flow, hopefully udders stay in shape. Super quiet temperament. I really noticed the difference with their first calves and milk production, which kept their calves out of the small-weight group to sell and into the mid-weight group. Added about another 30-40 lbs of calf compared to the straight Herefords. On the 2nd year though, the Herefords caught up on weaned calf weight.

Next year will be the first 1/2 blood calves on the ground.
 
Aaron - you will love them ---- just saying :D
I have culled pretty hard on my cows. Usually, if one comes open, she gets slipped into next "season". (60 day breeding strictly AI is tough) - but - I culled some awesome cows. Shipped 4 yesterday. Anxious to get check to see what they did - will probably cry. Sale barns around here are DAIRY mostly. They do not get very many beef cows/calves. Luckily, the one closest to me is a great cull market. One about 1.5 hrs away is the best feeder calf market. That's the one I base my price on our steers to sell.
My cows can screw up and it is not very costly to the farm. Weaned steers brought just under $1100 this year - sold a few for show calves brought $1500. That covers cow costs pretty well. Generally, my steers will cover the cost of their dams and the dams that raised keeper heifers. Real hard to part with good cows. But, it's a total herd number thing.
 
Stocker Steve said:
Record like numbers of heifers going to the feedlots. Someone is not retaining cheap heifers. :???:

I am doing my part. Are you stepping up?

Nope. If we're able to retain lots of cheap heifers then we aren't managing our grass and herd right. Our herd age is good and we only had 1-2 culls this year. Things worked out well. Maybe next year we'll do more but this year it we didn't take the gamble and didn't need to keep around for the future.
 
When I hear someone say that they culled their "Awesome cows" I can pretty much be certain that they wasn't that awesome, hehe! More like awesome in a 5 mile radius.
 
Stocker Steve said:
Aaron said:
Next year will be the first 1/2 blood calves on the ground.

That is alot of simi in the land of the artic vortex. I thought you were a quarter blood man?

They are meant as terminal, not planning to keep many, if any, heifers. Yes, 1/2 Simm cows might not be too fond of the October hay I am cutting today. Herfies don't care.
 
I like the herf x simi cows. Black angus (I know there are 31 flavors) x simi don't work as well in a one calving season system. Mine tend to raise very nice calves as heifers, but then have some trouble with breed back, even after I cull off the biggest ones...
 
Smart money is preselling some 2020 crops. :nod: Longer term - - oil prices are dropping and it is not at all clear that the ethanol mandate is going to hold up. Can you say Soil Bank?
 
Aaron said:
Stocker Steve said:
Aaron said:
Next year will be the first 1/2 blood calves on the ground.

That is alot of simi in the land of the artic vortex. I thought you were a quarter blood man?

They are meant as terminal, not planning to keep many, if any, heifers. Yes, 1/2 Simm cows might not be too fond of the October hay I am cutting today. Herfies don't care.

Ya, you don't want simmies if you live up north.
 

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