Time to Hit Lick

[ga. prime]

Found my password and username. It worked! Then they wanted to know where I went on my honeymoon. Got that right too! Looking at my portfolio- appears like I'm doing pretty good on my McDonalds and Apple shares, not so good on Conoco-Phillips. Herefordsire, what do you think about shifting some dollars into Johnson&Johnson and/or General Electric?

 

[MO_cows]

Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

Bureau of Labor Statistics says 9.4% of the 154,504,000 labor force is unempoyed. That comes to 14,523,376 poor souls without a job. (Don't worry, I know about losing a job to an economy in the tank and having a house payment to make on a home worth less than I paid for it.) To reach the the Great Depression era unemployment of 25%, another 24,103,624 people need to loose their job.
Is it possible, with the folks in charge of congress, to reach these levels?

Maybe not. At the rate we keep getting new programs, czars, etc., it seems like enough federal employees will be added to the payroll to prevent it.

 

[1982vett]

Looks like after 20 years something would be different. :lol:

 

[Ryder]

Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

Bureau of Labor Statistics says 9.4% of the 154,504,000 labor force is unempoyed. That comes to 14,523,376 poor souls without a job. (Don't worry, I know about losing a job to an economy in the tank and having a house payment to make on a home worth less than I paid for it.) To reach the the Great Depression era unemployment of 25%, another 24,103,624 people need to loose their job.
Is it possible, with the folks in charge of congress, to reach these levels?

Yes, we can!

Ditto what John said.

 

[1982vett]

Why the rally still has legs.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/ ... BD46211435

Signs of a turing point in the economy.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/ ... BCFE242671

Breadbasket drying up.
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/ ... 44D6C22E25

Hey, when did they move the breadbasket to California?

Might as well add one more...Remeber, it was Bush that lied about the economy...wouldn't ever happen now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-mo ... 2009-09-02

 

[HerefordSire]

Found my password and username. It worked! Then they wanted to know where I went on my honeymoon. Got that right too! Looking at my portfolio- appears like I'm doing pretty good on my McDonalds and Apple shares, not so good on Conoco-Phillips. Herefordsire, what do you think about shifting some dollars into Johnson&Johnson and/or General Electric?

GE is too overleveraged. J & J is better, but.......timing is everything. Now is not the time to be long equities.

 

[HerefordSire]

Found my password and username. It worked! Then they wanted to know where I went on my honeymoon. Got that right too! Looking at my portfolio- appears like I'm doing pretty good on my McDonalds and Apple shares, not so good on Conoco-Phillips. Herefordsire, what do you think about shifting some dollars into Johnson&Johnson and/or General Electric?

GE is too overleveraged. J & J is better, but.......timing is everything. Now is not the time to be long equities.

Debt for GE is $498 billion.... the total external debt of Brazil is $160 billion.

 

[1982vett]

Found my password and username. It worked! Then they wanted to know where I went on my honeymoon. Got that right too! Looking at my portfolio- appears like I'm doing pretty good on my McDonalds and Apple shares, not so good on Conoco-Phillips. Herefordsire, what do you think about shifting some dollars into Johnson&Johnson and/or General Electric?

GE is too overleveraged. J & J is better, but.......timing is everything. Now is not the time to be long equities.

Been waiting for HS to reply cause I didn't want to butt in. Have to agree. I'm looking for something that at least pays a decent dividend. Yep, I hold Conoco-Phillips too. Average price is fair (collecting around 3.6% on the dividend) so I'm holding on for better days.

 

[HerefordSire]

Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

Bureau of Labor Statistics says 9.4% of the 154,504,000 labor force is unempoyed. That comes to 14,523,376 poor souls without a job. (Don't worry, I know about losing a job to an economy in the tank and having a house payment to make on a home worth less than I paid for it.) To reach the the Great Depression era unemployment of 25%, another 24,103,624 people need to loose their job.
Is it possible, with the folks in charge of congress, to reach these levels?

That is what they want you to believe. The 9.4% unemployment rate doesn't take into consideration all of us unemployed. There are estimates the real rate is closing on 20% or higher. The reason is the reporting methods, including reasons for entitlements. There is no reliable way to determine how many actually are unemployed for comparison purposes, even taking into consideration our huge underground economy. In my opinion, if we knew the real numbers, we would see the DJIA around 5,000 right now, or at least trending the same as the 1929 market crash shown in a previous post in this thread.

 

[1982vett]

Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

Bureau of Labor Statistics says 9.4% of the 154,504,000 labor force is unempoyed. That comes to 14,523,376 poor souls without a job. (Don't worry, I know about losing a job to an economy in the tank and having a house payment to make on a home worth less than I paid for it.) To reach the the Great Depression era unemployment of 25%, another 24,103,624 people need to loose their job.
Is it possible, with the folks in charge of congress, to reach these levels?

That is what they want you to believe. The 9.4% unemployment rate doesn't take into consideration all of us unemployed. There are estimates the real rate is closing on 20% or higher. The reason is the reporting methods, including reasons for entitlements. There is no reliable way to determine how many actually are unemployed for comparison purposes, even taking into consideration our huge underground economy. In my opinion, if we knew the real numbers, we would see the DJIA around 5,000 right now, or at least trending the same as the 1929 market crash shown in a previous post in this thread.

Yep, that wasn't available to the masses in 1929, today it is and just another part of business and a way of life for many. Many of them never intend to hold a job so it doesn't matter that they aren't "counted". They are essentially "employed" by our governments "safety net" support system, however meager it may be, but it is how many choose to live.

 

[ga. prime]

Found my password and username. It worked! Then they wanted to know where I went on my honeymoon. Got that right too! Looking at my portfolio- appears like I'm doing pretty good on my McDonalds and Apple shares, not so good on Conoco-Phillips. Herefordsire, what do you think about shifting some dollars into Johnson&Johnson and/or General Electric?

GE is too overleveraged. J & J is better, but.......timing is everything. Now is not the time to be long equities.

Been waiting for HS to reply cause I didn't want to butt in. Have to agree. I'm looking for something that at least pays a decent dividend. Yep, I hold Conoco-Phillips too. Average price is fair (collecting around 3.6% on the dividend) so I'm holding on for better days.

Thanks for the replies from the both of you. It's always good and helpful to know what other people are thinking.

 

[HerefordSire]

Yep, that wasn't available to the masses in 1929, today it is and just another part of business and a way of life for many. Many of them never intend to hold a job so it doesn't matter that they aren't "counted". They are essentially "employed" by our governments "safety net" support system, however meager it may be, but it is how many choose to live.

My firm just made another sweep getting rid of many more including 15+ year employees. These recent numbers are not going to be on tomorrow's job report. :shock: :shock: :shock:

 

[HerefordSire]

September: The Worst Month for Stocks

....After looking at the data from 1900 to 2008, it is safe to conclude that September historically was the worst month for investors, period. Stock averages and median returns were -1.16% and -0.56%, respectively. Far worse than any other months. In fact, with the exception of June where median returns were down 3 basis points, no other month of the year had negative median returns other than September. In 63 out of 108 years, September brought negative returns to investors, greater than any other month.

It gets worse: Returns in August were greater than 2% average and median returns in September were -2.29% and -1.44%, respectively....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/159792- ... for-stocks

 

[HerefordSire]

I challenge you to read every word of this lengthy opinion. Let me know what you think?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=15031

 

[HerefordSire]

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[HerefordSire]

35,000,000 people * $133 food stamps per month = $4,655,000,000 or $4.6B per month.

Food stamp list soars past 35 million: USDA

Thu Sep 3, 2009 3:17pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - More than 35 million Americans received food stamps in June, up 22 percent from June 2008 and a new record as the country continued to grapple with the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The food stamp program, which helps cover the cost of groceries for one in nine Americans, has grown in step with the U.S. unemployment rate which stood at 9.4 percent in July.

The Labor Department will release August employment figures on Friday.

June was the seventh straight month in which food stamp rolls set a record. The average benefit in June was $133.12 per person.

http://www.reuters.com/article/domestic ... 22&sp=true

 

[1982vett]

I challenge you to read every word of this lengthy opinion. Let me know what you think?

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php? ... &aid=15031

Find it hard to get past the first few paragraphs.... More "Doom and Gloom"

 

[1982vett]

Expect a Shallow, Low-Inflation Recovery

By Vincent Farrell Jr.
9/4/2009 9:01 AM EDT
TheStreet.com RealMoney

Lyle Gramley, Soleil's chief economist, recently wrote a piece about the first year of a recovery. He looked at nine prior recessions and found some interesting takeaways.

The average recovery for the nine rebounds was 5.8% in the four quarters following the end of the recession. When the recession was deeper (an average of -2.7% for five of them), the recovery was more pronounced and showed an average gain of 7.1%. When less severe (four recessions with an average decline of 1.1%), the rebound was milder at an average gain of 4.1%.

Net exports are usually a drag as the U.S. recovers more quickly than the rest of the world and inventory rebuild usually draws imports. Consumer spending is often a smaller part of a recovery than it would be for a normal economic period, but it's still critical.

The key to the consumer segment is wage growth. Since wage and salary income is below a year ago, and since the consumer is still stretched and is in a conservative frame of mind, Lyle believes the recovery will be muted. Inflation usually goes down the first year of a recovery, so interest rates will stay low.

His conclusion in one sentence would be to expect a shallow recovery with low inflation...(goes on to give some stock picks)

 

[1982vett]

Won't Get Fooled Again

By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
9/4/2009 8:17 AM EDT




"The optimist thinks this is the best of all possible worlds. The pessimist fears it is true."-Robert Oppenheimer


Although the market has lost momentum and developed some technical cracks, lately, the big danger for market players is being too aggressively bearish. This market is very likely to contain still a few more surprises to the upside, and downside is unlikely to come quickly or smoothly.
There has seldom been a time when more folks have been rooting for a market pullback -- the bears for obvious reasons and the bulls because so many failed to embrace the stunning the rally that started back in March. This whole rally has been one of the most uncomfortable we have ever experienced, since so many market players were gun-shy after the worst market meltdown since the Great Depression. The market just kept going and going and never really allowed much time for market players to adjust to the idea that things might be improving.

It is not at all unusual for the market to make great legions uncomfortable, and, in this case, it has left a huge audience of folks who are feeling frustrated that they were too shy in the bullishness. Those who didn't quickly and aggressively jump on shallow dips had no choice but to chase the market or sit on the sidelines in frustration.

Now we are finally starting to see some more meaningful pullbacks, and these folks who missed out so much during the last few months are determined not to be left out again. They are going to continue to provide some consistent underlying support for this market. Dip buying has not failed to work for quite some time. We had a misstep on Tuesday, but buying weakness has been the way to go for a very long time now.

The great danger for the bears is that they count on these dip buyers going away too quickly. It is going to take some real disappointment to turn would-be dip buyers into frightened sideline sitters. These potential buyers are almost gleeful about the idea of some seasonal weakness that finally allows them to add long positions just in time for a resumption of the rally into the end of the year.

There are lots of fundamental reasons for this market to see more downside, and I think we eventually will, but don't look for it to come too fast. Respect the fact that there are so many dip buyers still out there who will be looking for opportunities to jump in. They aren't going to go away until they suffer some real pain, and that hasn't happened yet.

This morning, we have the monthly jobs report coming up, which should give us some insight into how market psychology is evolving. Lately, there has been a greater inclination to sell the news and lots of folks will be anticipating that response yet again. If we see sharp selling of good news that will help to confirm the idea that the character of the market is changing, however, it will also be a good test of those dip buyers if we see a poor response to the numbers.

To complicate matters a bit, we should have thin trading in front of the three-day weekend. Pre-holiday trading tends to have a bullish bias, which favors the dip buyers, so keep that in mind if we see initial weakness on the jobs numbers.

We'll see how the action looks after the numbers are out. I'm expecting some quick whipsaws, no matter what the numbers might be, but I'm not inclined to place any bets in front of the news.
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I guess I'm not one to believe the end of the world is at hand.

 

[HerefordSire]

I believe we are slipping into a depression. Market began to rally off of S & P 500 low of 666 at first sign of layoffs. Since then, we have lost jobs until the unemployment rate is 9.7% while the S & P 500 index moves to 1,000. What does that tell you? What it tells me is the market is moving up artificially. While corporate profits increase when reducing workforce, most top line revenue numbers are moving down likewise.