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Time to Hit Lick

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HerefordSire

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Be careful with this...very risky...only experienced should partake....


This is a 3X ETF Bear of financial service companies:

The investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, 300% of the inverse daily performance of the Russell 1000 Financial Services Index The fund will invest at least 80% of assets in securities that comprise the index. It will also utilize financial instruments that, in combination, provide leveraged and unleveraged exposure to the index. The fund is nondiversified.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=FAZ

Price closed @ $26.39 per share today. I want the shares to rise meaning the market financial service company shares are falling in price.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=faz

Any price between $25 and $30 is a relatively good price. I am expecting a double in the short term.
 

HerefordSire

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A little reinforcement never hurts.. Dicky Bove...

Earnings and US banks will likely growth by 300 percent to 500 percent from 2011 to 2015, Rochdale Securities Banking Analyst Richard Bove said in a research note, Reuters reported Monday.

Liquidity and capital will be the base for the significant earnings growth, Bove said.

Bank earnings will likely be dismal for the remainder of 2009, he said.

US regional banks will continue to lose money into early 2010, he added.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32622874


1,000 Banks to Fail In Next Two Years: Bank CEO

“Government money has propped up the very large institutions as a result of the stimulus package,” he said. “There’s really very little lifeline available for the small institutions that are suffering.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32581463/?site=14081545
 

HerefordSire

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Notice the aligned lows shortly after tanking. the notice 1929 trend....




Look how big we are...



...and our debt...

 

HerefordSire

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Fire behind smoke?

Worries about banks drag stock market lower

Stocks tumble as traders juggle worries about health of banks, size of market's six-month run

NEW YORK (AP) -- A stock market ripe for a big pullback succumbed Tuesday, plunging when rumors of a bank failure revived investors' anxiety about the banking industry and the economy as a whole.

A batch of economic reports that just weren't good enough added to the mix as the major indexes all fell about 2 percent and the Dow Jones industrials slid 185 points. Treasury prices, usually the beneficiary of a slide in stocks, ended only moderately higher.

A break in the market's six-month rally was widely expected after investors showed a growing inclination to sell for some time. While the major indexes finished August with respectable gains, including a 3.4 percent rise in the Standard & Poor's 500, trading was erratic and the advances had a half-hearted feeling. Analysts warned that investors were doubting whether they should have bid stocks so high in the rally that began in early March.

So it wasn't surprising that, after the Dow was up 60 points in response to a seemingly better-than-expected reading on manufacturing, something like a rumor about a possible bank failure could take the market down.

"Some time midmorning, rumors came out that a large bank could be in trouble," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "That's all it takes to spook this market."

The rumors were never substantiated.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Worries-a ... et=&ccode=
 

ga. prime

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HerefordSire":2r6q6mof said:
Here is Regions Financial. Wonder what type of portfolio they have.
I don't even know what kind of portfolio I have. Can't remember my password. Username either.
 

1982vett

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HerefordSire":1vi05be6 said:
Notice the aligned lows shortly after tanking. the notice 1929 trend....
Looks to me we can go a little lower before breaking the trendline come into play


HerefordSire":1vi05be6 said:
Look how big we are...



...and our debt...

Looks like we aren't as leveraged as some other countries
Japan (1492/4384=.14)
US debt to GDP Ratio (12250/13844=.88)
Italy (2345/2105=1.11)
Spain (2047/1439=1.42)
Germany (4849/3322=1.460
France (4396/2560=1.72)
UK debt to GDP Ratio (10450/2773=3.77)

So what is your point? Why all the worry?

Catch y'all later. Got to go load some calves before the market tanks. :p
 

HerefordSire

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1982vett":dqv013ai said:
[Looks to me we can go a little lower before breaking the trendline come into play

Looks like we aren't as leveraged as some other countries
Japan (1492/4384=.14)
US debt to GDP Ratio (12250/13844=.88)
Italy (2345/2105=1.11)
Spain (2047/1439=1.42)
Germany (4849/3322=1.460
France (4396/2560=1.72)
UK debt to GDP Ratio (10450/2773=3.77)

So what is your point? Why all the worry?

Catch y'all later. Got to go load some calves before the market tanks. :p


Yes, it appears we could go higher according to the charts. However, we are higher now than all other major recession or depression recoveries after a 50+ percentage run up in equity prices. The reason equities did run up is because the US dollar was tanking, which more or less maintained or increased buying power. The dollar lost about 15% of its value since the run began in March, which by the way, the bottom was called perfectly in previous posts.

This interim top is a little harder to call because of the 10,000 psychological barrier has not been touched yet. This adds a greater level of complexity, skill, and risk. Worry is not the way I would interpret my presentation. I figure there are times to make money and there are times to be patient, just as there are growing seasons.
 

1982vett

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HerefordSire":3ifppfvk said:
I figure there are times to make money and there are times to be patient, just as there are growing seasons.[/i]

I'll give you another indicator to follow. I've recently recovered losses sustained during the October 1 to March 6 decline....plus added a bit. That has me "worried". Usually my "recoveries" don't last very long. ;-)

Got the calves loaded. Took in 9 and put 6 heifers in the weaning pen and turned 4 back out to go a few more weeks. Now I need some rain so I can keep them. :nod:
 

HerefordSire

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1982vett":13dbmdb2 said:
HerefordSire":13dbmdb2 said:
I figure there are times to make money and there are times to be patient, just as there are growing seasons.[/i]

I'll give you another indicator to follow. I've recently recovered losses sustained during the October 1 to March 6 decline....plus added a bit. That has me "worried". Usually my "recoveries" don't last very long. ;-)

Got the calves loaded. Took in 9 and put 6 heifers in the weaning pen and turned 4 back out to go a few more weeks. Now I need some rain so I can keep them. :nod:

Make sure you measure your buying power differences. For example, on point in time A, what was your buying power? Multiply the end of day USD times your monetary amount. Then at point B do the same calculation. Compare the two. Which one is greater? A huge trap people fall into, is their assets increase but their buying power decreases.

Wilbur...


500 More Banks to Fail By End of 2010: Wilbur Ross

The list of failed bank continues to grow as the FDIC’s troubled bank list currently stands at 416 troubled banks. Wilbur Ross, chairman and CEO of WL Ross & Co. explained that he expects to see further trouble ahead for banks.

“I’m not surprised that the [FDIC’s] list is continuing to grow,” Ross told CNBC. “I think there’s going to be at least 500 more banks fail between now and end of next year.”


Ross said commercial real estate is the currently the biggest problem for banks as opposed to residential.

“The first wave of the big banks were the securitizations," he said. "The regional banks are the ones now going down. They mostly didn’t have much in the way of securitization but they all have construction loans, they have development loans, they all have loans on little shopping centers and they’ve got that kind of portfolio very heavily.”

In the meantime, Ross said the FDIC recently developed a system to get rid of Alt-A loans through bidding and said investors can benefit from the distressed assets.

“Yesterday, the FDIC held an auction for $1.3 billion of Alt-A loans, or liars loans, coming out of the failed Franklin Bank,” he said. “So that’s the first time FDIC has had an auction with them providing leverage to distressed investors. So we were bidders on it...I think it’s a good system that they’ve developed for getting rid of these assets.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32657466
 

HerefordSire

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Dr. Doom...

Fast Money: What is the biggest threat to the recovery?

Roubini: The debt ratios of banks and (individuals) are very high; (Individuals) have barely started saving. So what we’ve done is socialize these private losses and now we have a massive releveraging of the public sector with large and unsustainable budget deficits.

(The deficits) are leading to accumulation of public debt - over $10 trillion over next 10 years. (That massive amount) of debt may lead to another crisis.

I agree that we see bank failures going forward, says Guy Adami. And if that happens I expect it could spook the market. I also think the market has seen its high for a while.

If you agree with Roubini I’d get long gold [GLD 95.841 1.941 (+2.07%) ], counsels Joe Terranova.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32642401
 

1982vett

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HerefordSire":2v6gtvqn said:
Make sure you measure your buying power differences. For example, on point in time A, what was your buying power? Multiply the end of day USD times your monetary amount. Then at point B do the same calculation. Compare the two. Which one is greater? A huge trap people fall into, is their assets increase but their buying power decreases.


Very few points in time in the last 100 years when that wasn't a fact of life. I believe anytime the ordinary citizens buying power does not erode more the 4-5% a year, then it was a good year.

One's loss in buying power is related to what you spend your money on. I'm not spending money on over priced housing, over priced automobiles, overpriced appliances, overpriced any other kind of toys. Energy expenses are down and current fertilizer prices are greatly reduced over last year. I am even on track show a considerable profit before taxes and depreciation on the cattle this year, even during the second year of drought conditions.

HerefordSire":2v6gtvqn said:
Wilbur...

500 More Banks to Fail By End of 2010: Wilbur Ross

The list of failed bank continues to grow as the FDIC’s troubled bank list currently stands at 416 troubled banks. Wilbur Ross, chairman and CEO of WL Ross & Co. explained that he expects to see further trouble ahead for banks.

“I’m not surprised that the [FDIC’s] list is continuing to grow,” Ross told CNBC. “I think there’s going to be at least 500 more banks fail between now and end of next year.”


Ross said commercial real estate is the currently the biggest problem for banks as opposed to residential.

“The first wave of the big banks were the securitizations," he said. "The regional banks are the ones now going down. They mostly didn’t have much in the way of securitization but they all have construction loans, they have development loans, they all have loans on little shopping centers and they’ve got that kind of portfolio very heavily.”

In the meantime, Ross said the FDIC recently developed a system to get rid of Alt-A loans through bidding and said investors can benefit from the distressed assets.

“Yesterday, the FDIC held an auction for $1.3 billion of Alt-A loans, or liars loans, coming out of the failed Franklin Bank,” he said. “So that’s the first time FDIC has had an auction with them providing leverage to distressed investors. So we were bidders on it...I think it’s a good system that they’ve developed for getting rid of these assets.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32657466

Old, old not so new "news". Little late to worry about bank failures. Another fact of life. The panic was last year, now it is just par for the course. Whether a bank fails or not is now determined by its political value.

Don't think one needs to have the "deer in the headlights" feeling until congress is back in Washington. To bad that is just a short time from now.
 

HerefordSire

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US has about 300,000,000 people. If 1,400,000 file for bankruptcy this year and 1,100,00 filed last year, there could be 2,500,000 filings in the last two years alone.

Consumer Bankruptcies Could Reach 1.4 Million

Bankruptcy filings by U.S. consumers rose 24 percent in August compared with a year earlier and could reach 1.4 million this year, according to an American Bankruptcy Institute and National Bankruptcy Research Center report released on Wednesday.

Despite the spike, consumer bankruptcy filings last month were down 5 percent from July. The August bankruptcies brought the 2009 number to 922,000.

In 2008, a total of 1.1 million consumers filed for bankruptcy, according to ABI.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32660458
 

1982vett

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HerefordSire":8ka6eqit said:
US has about 300,000,000 people. If 1,400,000 file for bankruptcy this year and 1,100,00 filed last year, there could be 2,500,000 filings in the last two years alone.

Consumer Bankruptcies Could Reach 1.4 Million

Bankruptcy filings by U.S. consumers rose 24 percent in August compared with a year earlier and could reach 1.4 million this year, according to an American Bankruptcy Institute and National Bankruptcy Research Center report released on Wednesday.

Despite the spike, consumer bankruptcy filings last month were down 5 percent from July. The August bankruptcies brought the 2009 number to 922,000.

In 2008, a total of 1.1 million consumers filed for bankruptcy, according to ABI.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32660458
Sounds about average, especially with all the "financial advisors" counseling everyone to walk away from their obligations.

http://www.abiworld.org/statcharts/Cons ... 8FINAL.pdf
Close to 2.0 million filed in 2005
 

HerefordSire

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Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.
 

HerefordSire

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Most of the time, long investors never see what hits them.

Distribution is the process of sellers absorbing the buyers in the market, very discreetly so that other traders do not recognize they are distributing their shares. Distribution always begins occurring at the top of bull markets but typically is not recognized until afterwards. A cursor that the market is going into a distribution phase when prices have been rising in an uptrend and then a buying climax occurs.
 

1982vett

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HerefordSire":1s1rqamc said:
Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.
Bureau of Labor Statistics says 9.4% of the 154,504,000 labor force is unempoyed. That comes to 14,523,376 poor souls without a job. (Don't worry, I know about losing a job to an economy in the tank and having a house payment to make on a home worth less than I paid for it.) To reach the the Great Depression era unemployment of 25%, another 24,103,624 people need to loose their job.
Is it possible, with the folks in charge of congress, to reach these levels?
 

john250

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1982vett":1zkrawtc said:
HerefordSire":1zkrawtc said:
Read this and then look at the stock chart showing the major recessions and the great depression: the economy already has lost 6.7 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most of any economic slump since the Great Depression.
Bureau of Labor Statistics says 9.4% of the 154,504,000 labor force is unempoyed. That comes to 14,523,376 poor souls without a job. (Don't worry, I know about losing a job to an economy in the tank and having a house payment to make on a home worth less than I paid for it.) To reach the the Great Depression era unemployment of 25%, another 24,103,624 people need to loose their job.
Is it possible, with the folks in charge of congress, to reach these levels?

Yes, we can!
 
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