Something doesnt add up

[badger]

in my opinion with this declining feeder ctt price. Doesnt the supply of feeder cattle affect price too ? Long time since I have seen 700 # feeders sell for less per cwt than fats.

 

[Scotty]

I do not think I have ever seen that. Were is this happening. What is your source of info. Thats not the case taht I read in some publications receive.

 

[badger]

Here in Wi at equity sale barn fat steers quoted @ 80 to 85 and feeders 7 t0 900 80 to 95.

 

[somn]

I haven't bought any lately so I can't say for sure but it is probably because that is as high as a person could go and still make a put work.

 

[Herefordcross]

I think it's like a lot of other things like the housing market, they'll stay overpriced for a while and then it's gonna catch up with the feedlots, packers and then finally us beef producers because for the past few years people have been spending more money that they don't have than ever in the history of this country and contrary to popular bleief eventually people are gonna have to spend less on meat, and groceries as a whole to be able to stay in their overpriced homes. Just my opinions not trying to spark anger or an arguement.

 

[Limomike]

typically markets go down during october anyway.. hopefully in December it will pick back up...

 

[Herefordcross]

My granddaddy always told me the best time to sell a 1000# fat steer was right before Christmas, never tried it myself but, I would imagine that pepole used to buy a butcher beef then in the past but, most people don't know how to cut a beef other than for grinding for hamburger, I do not know how to even cut a deer correctly..

 

[Engler]

I see the decline in feeder calves as a two pronged issue.

1) All the grain farmers that have a few cows on the side are done in the field so now it's time to wean the calves and take them to the sale barn. Econ 101 says that the added supply will drive down the market.

2) Corn is well over $3/bu right now in most places. That's going to crank out to a cost of gain in the neighborhood of $60/cwt. I ran the math on a group of feeders last week and the 6cwt heifers that I was looking at broke even at $82 (purchase price $96/cwt) and the futures were at $85. Either the feeders have to beat down the purchase price or they will just not fill the lot, sell the corn to town and have more time to go to the cafe and b*%&# about the markets.

 

[Limomike]

I do believe u hit the nail right on the head...

 

[Stocker Steve]

I see the decline in feeder calves as a two pronged issue.

1) All the grain farmers that have a few cows on the side are done in the field so now it's time to wean the calves and take them to the sale barn. Econ 101 says that the added supply will drive down the market.

2) Corn is well over $3/bu right now in most places. That's going to crank out to a cost of gain in the neighborhood of $60/cwt. I ran the math on a group of feeders last week and the 6cwt heifers that I was looking at broke even at $82 (purchase price $96/cwt) and the futures were at $85. Either the feeders have to beat down the purchase price or they will just not fill the lot, sell the corn to town and have more time to go to the cafe and b*%&# about the markets.

The lowest Minnesota calf prices are usually in Oct/Nov and the highest price is usually in April. The small feed lots around here mix by products or silage with cheap hay... so I think $3 to $4 corn grain just reduces their calf price and increases their profit. These feed lots are making money at today's prices. They have low debt and only buy cattle if they pencil out a profit.

 

[stocky]

Here, in October, feeders are always cheaper due to sickness from weather temperature fluctuations. That has past. Now we are dealing with the combination of the corn price doubling and a large drop in fed cattle price. Calves are down from 30-50 dollars per hundred, depending on size and quality from where they were 2 months ago. There are going to be alot of feedlots and backgrounders take a bath in this and these huge losses may affect the market for quite awhile. However, as long as corn is high, feeders will not be as high. The feed cost caps the price paid for feeder calves. One of the big sale barn owners told me last night that he thinks feeders have bottomed out but dont expect them to go up much for 2 years. I hope he is right on the bottomed out, hope he is wrong and not coming back for 2 years