I Love Beefies":2bajinia said:
If Rita comes my way and now it looks like she'll come in around Matagorda Bay instead of Freeport(of course that can alway change we all are really watching the highs and low pressure fronts). I'm planning on taking lots of pictures, I rode out Hurricane Alicia in 83 and she came on shore at night when the eye passed over my mothers house there was complete silence and it was beautifuly peaceful! We were able to look straight up through the eye wall and see the stars sure wish I had taken pictures then. But we all know that after the eye passed over the back side of the storm was coming......
Nice knowin you cause if this girl comes a shore with current predictions,
you had better be able to tread water like you are from New Orleans. Alica was a kitten barely a Cat 3 really a strong 2 when she came in.
At 3PM CDT, Hurricane Rita will be near 23.9N/81.8W, or about 50 miles south of Key West, FL. Rita is moving to the west at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are up to 100-105 mph, with gusts to 130 mph. Central pressure was last reported to be 976 millibars, or 28.82 inches.
There are no major changes to our forecast track on this advisory. However, we have indicated a little more strengthening over the initial 24-48 hours. Rita's central pressure continues to fall fairly rapidly this afternoon, and we think that surface winds will reach Category 3 strength of 115 mph within the next 6-12 hours. Currently, heaviest squalls continue to impact the Key West area, but conditions are improving in Miami. One band of heavy squalls is located about 30 miles south of Naples, but we think that these squalls will probably remain to the south of Naples as Rita moves off to the west this afternoon and this evening.
We are becoming more confident that Rita will make landfall along the Texas coast between Corpus Christi and Sabine Pass. But we remain uncertain as to the exact point of landfall. It's quite likely that we'll be making further adjustments as to the point of landfall up through Friday morning as we see how quickly Rita makes that northwesterly turn on Thursday.
As for intensity, Rita should become a major Category 3 hurricane this evening. In 24-36 hours, Rita will be over some very warm water in the central Gulf of Mexico. We think it is likely that Rita could reach Category 4 strength of 135-145 mph as it crosses this warm water, but some weakening will likely occur once the hurricane moves west of the warmer water and approaches the Texas coast on Friday.
A Category 3 hurricane could produce a storm surge of 12-14 feet near where the eye crosses the coast and northeast of the landfall point for about 30-60 miles. This surge would be enhanced in bays and inlets along the coast. For example, a landfall near or just east of Freeport, TX could produce a storm surge of 15-20 feet across western and northern parts of Galveston Bay.
Chris Hebert
