How much lower can the cull cow market go?

[Brute 23]

Everyone wants to quit the cow/calve operation and run stocker calves on grass and then sell the gain. Where will they be i future if every one decides to try this. Pretty soon no calves to buy.

Every one won't run to stockers, I can assure you... but it would be nice if a few would.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Everyone wants to quit the cow/calve operation and run stocker calves on grass and then sell the gain. Where will they be i future if every one decides to try this. Pretty soon no calves to buy.

Every one won't run to stockers, I can assure you... but it would be nice if a few would.

High priced corn makes stockering attractive compared to feed lot calves.
So we have some time before the stampede starts.

 

[Brute 23]

Throw a drought on top of this in the spring and we can find out how low the market will go. op:

Most people around here are way over stocked still and I guarantee you the all said... I ain't giving cows cows away at these prices.

We kept old cows we wouldn't usually keep because of the grass and it paid off. If a drought hits we can sell off 15+ yr old cows, even at $.10, cut the heard 25%, and be fine. We can cut another 25% in the 10-15yr range, and so on.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Talked today to a big producer who is cutting back. Selling some old cows and letting some rental acres go. He is getting older, and doesn't see the gross margin the next couple years to pay for more hired help...

I counted cows today. Could get by with less. :nod:

 

[Dave]

It it looks to be on the way up. Topping at $0.65. Well, except in the narrative they said dairy cows were off a penny. The one real notable for the Brimmer pimps on the board. You will notice that Brahma cross heifers were less than half the price of other heifers which here would be mostly black hided cattle.

Toppenish Livestock Auction, Toppenish, WA Thursday
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average report for 12/20/2018

Note: Due to the upcoming Christmas and New Year's Day holidays this report will
not be issued again until Jan. 11, 2019.

Receipts: 1300 Last Week: 1250 Year Ago: 1675

Compared to last Thursday at the same market, stocker and feeder cattle firm in
a light test. Slaughter cows uneven, Holstein cows weak to 1.00 lower, value added
(guar grass fed) beef type cows firm. Slaughter bulls steady. Trade active with
good demand for all classes. Slaughter cows 59 percent, slaughter bulls 10 percent,
and feeders 31 percent of the supply. The feeder supply included 51 percent steers
and 49 percent heifers. Near 71 percent of the run weighed over 600 lbs.

Feeder Steers Medium and Large 1-2
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
9 450-500 497 164.00 164.00
9 550-600 583 140.00 140.00 Full
19 600-650 623 145.00-146.00 145.32 Calves
25 700-750 725 135.00-140.00 138.03
79 750-800 777 140.00-142.00 140.76

Feeder Steers Large 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
6 1000-1050 1005 123.50 123.50

Feeder Bulls Large 1
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
5 450-500 473 143.00 143.00
7 600-650 613 115.00 115.00

Feeder Heifers Medium and Large 1-2
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
5 400-450 447 144.50 144.50
20 450-500 498 139.50-141.00 140.03
15 500-550 545 130.00-139.00 134.65
5 500-550 504 139.50 139.50 Thin Fleshed
13 550-600 589 128.00-129.50 128.56
26 650-700 670 133.50-140.00 138.23 Calves
5 650-700 678 127.00 127.00 Full
33 750-800 750 139.00 139.00
8 750-800 794 118.50 118.50 Full

Feeder Heifers Large 2-3
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
11 450-500 491 60.00 60.00

Feeder Heifers Small and Medium 2-3
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
6 600-650 630 59.00 59.00 Brahman X
6 650-700 691 60.00 60.00 Brahman X

Slaughter Cows:
Pct. Lean Weight Avg Dressing High Dressing Low Dressing
Boners 80-85 1400-1900 50.00-55.00 56.00-57.50 46.00-50.00
Boners 80-85 1300-1900 60.00-65.00 --- 55.00-60.00 Value added
Lean 85-90 1100-1900 49.00-54.00 --- 45.00-49.00
Lean 90 900-1500 42.00-45.00 --- 36.00-42.00

Slaughter Bulls: Weight Avg Dressing High Dressing Low Dressing
Yield Grade 1-2 1500-2100 69.00-74.00 --- 64.00-69.00

 

[TCRanch]

Mine were sold in 4 groups this week:
Steers, avg 781# for 148.00
Steers, avg 713# for 155.00
Heifers, avg 606# for 145.50
Heifers, avg 688# for 145.00
But I think my heifers were sold as breeders, not feeders (and they were guaranteed open).

Saw a beautiful, white longhorn steer go through for $.15 at 900#. Couldn't believe it - essentially gave him away.
One of my friends took in a couple old, culls and got a whopping 290.00 for one & 259.00 for the other. Pretty bad but better than burying 'em.

 

[bird dog]

Darn good numbers for your calves especially those heifers.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Seems like almost every one is holding a couple cull cows for later. I would not count on a big rapid rebound.

Question is what do you buy after you finally sell those girls ?

 

[True Grit Farms]

Seems like almost every one is holding a couple cull cows for later. I would not count on a big rapid rebound.

Question is what do you buy after you finally sell those girls ?

Nothing, I held all my heifers back besides a half dozen ugly one's. I'm hoping for a bounce in the price this spring and planning on selling the ones that I don't want bred.

 

[CattleMan1920]

I think we're just getting warmed up. Bear market, oil plunging, where is the main driver for cattle here?

 

[True Grit Farms]

I think we're just getting warmed up. Bear market, oil plunging, where is the main driver for cattle here?

As long as people keep eating hamburger and drinking beer we'll be ok.

 

[JMJ Farms]

It it looks to be on the way up. Topping at $0.65. Well, except in the narrative they said dairy cows were off a penny. The one real notable for the Brimmer pimps on the board. You will notice that Brahma cross heifers were less than half the price of other heifers which here would be mostly black hided

Feeder Heifers Small and Medium 2-3
Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price
6 600-650 630 59.00 59.00 Brahman X
6 650-700 691 60.00 60.00 Brahman X

I understand what you're saying. But I would take as many good BrahmanX heifers as I could buy at 700 lbs for .60.
That's Christmas come early, in the South/Southeast. Ideal momma cow here, but not in your neck of the woods I understand.

 

[Stocker Steve]

I would take as many good BrahmanX heifers as I could buy at 700 lbs for .60.
That's Christmas come early, in the South/Southeast. Ideal momma cow here

No Brimmer bitches here, but you can get short Herf heifers for 60 cents. :cowboy:

 

[JMJ Farms]

I would take as many good BrahmanX heifers as I could buy at 700 lbs for .60.
That's Christmas come early, in the South/Southeast. Ideal momma cow here

No Brimmer bitches here, but you can get short Herf heifers for 60 cents. :cowboy:

I don't like the cross quite as good, BUT you could take the herf heifer and put an angus bull the first time and then a brimmer Bull from then on and make some dandy replacements. I'd rather skip that step and have the brimmer cross heifer and breed to black bulls for terminal calves.

 

[TCRanch]

Darn good numbers for your calves especially those heifers.

Thank you! They topped the sale. I kept 7 this year, contingent on pelvic measurements but optimistic because of their lineage.

 

[Muddy]

Sold two cull cows last week, got only $500 total. Both are Black Angus. Should've had kept them and hamburger them out.

 

[farmerjan]

I have been encouraging any of my dairy farmers to burger cows that are on their cull list. You can get some cuts of steaks, ribeye, and some sirloin as dairy cows tend to be more tender due to the corn silage rations. Stew beef is good too. It is not worth giving them away. Beef in the freezer will keep for several years if vacuum packed. Investing in another freezer is still a smarter way to go than to let these cows go for .15 to .30 lb. What I did was to get one done up into things like bologna, beef snack sticks, hot dogs, real good chipped beef..... yes it costs to do it... but it is my beef and I know what I am eating. I've got some sweet lebanon bologna, snack sticks in 5 different flavors, hot dogs, some with cheese in them.... chipped beef that is not too salty, ground beef and stewmeat..... Costs about $4.00 lb to have it done average..... with the value of a $300 cow, that's $7.00 lb tops. Ever look at the price per pound of bologna.... or snack sticks.... and I know the beef is safe to eat.

 

[Stocker Steve]

Latest talking head theory is cheaper white meat is competing more with burger.
I did go to KFC last week, but I keep it to a minimum.
We are giving some folks burger for Christmas. :idea:

 

[Caustic Burno]

Well as what few I have left age out I am not replacing them. My hay man is 70, only one young man in the area doing hay. I will pick up a few SS heavies in spring and sell out each fall.
Takes care of the hay issue in the future and the Ag exemption.

 

[Dave]

Latest talking head theory is cheaper white meat is competing more with burger.
I did go to KFC last week, but I keep it to a minimum.
We are giving some folks burger for Christmas. :idea:

With 2 moves in 9 months we didn't put more beef in the freezer. The freezer got emptied. Store bought burger tastes bad to me. Steaks and roasts cost too much. The last 4 months I have eaten way too much pork and chicken. And store bought pork and chicken don't cut the mustard for flavor either. Just butchered a fat heifer on Thursday. I am so looking forward to having beef to eat.