How high can they go?

[piedmontese]

How high do you all think cattle are gonna go? Heard about spring calving RA heifers selling for $3000 today.

 

[3waycross]

Mine are headed up to around 9500' on Saturday. They could go up to 10,000' if they want on that piece of ground!

 

[WalnutCrest]

I got a call for two recips carrying confirmed heifer embryos...embryos that haven't even been created yet...out of a specific female and a rare and elite bull. They don't want the recips until next summer because they are spring calvers.

I'm trying to figure out how to price this... any suggestions?

With the old timers taking these prices, lots of breeding stock is going to the processor that could otherwise put more hooves on the ground. Prices are going up.

 

[Son of Butch]

How high do you all think cattle are gonna go?

I think the high is in for the year on Fat Cattle.
USDA boxed beef has dropped for 6 straight days after posting a record high of 262.50 lb for choice 600-900 lb carcass
August 8th after setting 6 new record highs for the year.
Live markets for Fats peaked with new record high for us here in Minnesota on July 28th.
Futures trend on slaughter cattle has been steady to slightly lower for the rest of 2014.
Whenever a new record high is set the market either has to go down or set another new record.
We set so many records this year, my guess is the next record high will have to wait at least until the next grilling season of 2015. MY :2cents:

 

[3waycross]

How high do you all think cattle are gonna go?

I think the high is in for the year on Fat Cattle.
USDA boxed beef has dropped for 6 straight days after posting a record high of 262.50 lb for choice 600-900 lb carcass
August 8th after setting 6 new record highs for the year.
Live markets for Fats peaked with new record high for us here in Minnesota on July 28th.
Futures trend on slaughter cattle has been steady to slightly lower for the rest of 2014.
Whenever a new record high is set the market either has to go down or set another new record.
We set so many records this year, my guess is the next record high will have to wait at least until the next grilling season of 2015. MY :2cents:

The money in feeders will continue to amaze those of us who remember 5 years ago.

The money in breeding stock and hamburger bulls and cows will stagger the imagination for years to come. I cannot imagine selling a heifer right now.

 

[denvermartinfarms]

How high do you all think cattle are gonna go?

I think the high is in for the year on Fat Cattle.
USDA boxed beef has dropped for 6 straight days after posting a record high of 262.50 lb for choice 600-900 lb carcass
August 8th after setting 6 new record highs for the year.
Live markets for Fats peaked with new record high for us here in Minnesota on July 28th.
Futures trend on slaughter cattle has been steady to slightly lower for the rest of 2014.
Whenever a new record high is set the market either has to go down or set another new record.
We set so many records this year, my guess is the next record high will have to wait at least until the next grilling season of 2015. MY :2cents:

The money in feeders will continue to amaze those of us who remember 5 years ago.

I say that just about every day.

 

[Calhoun Farm]

Anyone think prices will fall around November? I'm taking 12 calves off.

 

[piedmontese]

3way do u plan to keep your heifers as replacements or sell as breds?

 

[3waycross]

3way do u plan to keep your heifers as replacements or sell as breds?

Replacements going straight black this year in Colorado. Got one kinda dink heifer that I will probably sell with my friends heifers at the sale barn.

 

[Nesikep]

3way, I've got one of them too.. so ugly she's cute!, nearly 5 months old and pushing 300 lbs! I'm only keeping 2 replacements this year, the rest aren't up to snuff for me, and I didn't get many to begin with, though I may keep a handful of nice steers over and an intact bull calf.. I don't see a big crash coming in the immediate future (but only hindsight is 20/20 right?)

 

[greybeard]

Everyone hates drought butthat's one of the main causes of the current prices. 2010-2011-2012- droughts led to selloffs---2011 in a big way here, and the herd size still hasn't recovered.
A few consecutive years of good rainfall, plentiful hay, high corn yields/low grain costs, and no negative surprises, the herd size will grow and prices will drop.

 

[bigbull338]

GB ive heard alot of cattlemen say they wont expand their herds because the replacements cost to much to buy.as a matter of fact the reverse is happening here.the old cattlemen are cashing out on the high over all prices.

 

[Son of Butch]

I don't see a big crash coming in the immediate future (but only hindsight is 20/20)

Running with that thought, I've looked back over at several years of market charts, but no sooner then I spot a trend of a
few years of cattle prices peaking in July then pulling back only to regain steam and peak again in December...
then I come across other years where that doesn't hold true at all.

I did notice that most markets, the majority of the time, no matter whether rising or falling have a monthly fluctuation
of about 2.5% from the low to the high. The month may even end flat with 0% change, but there is week to week variation
allowing day traders buying and selling opportunities within each month.
2.5% x 12 months = 30%
But markets never move in a straight line, the charts are always a series of jagged lines, either falling or rising.
So that most years, even when the market trend is falling or rising, the variation from the market low to the high for the year
is about 18-20% and not 30%
That's about all I can tell you for now.

I do have a dart board.
One day I'm going to buy me a Monkey.
Because most market pros predictions, be it stocks and bonds, gold and silver, corn, soybeans or cattle are no more
accurate than a monkey with a dart board.

I'm gonna name my monkey Nostradartmus
Calhoun; Do I foresee feeder cattle prices falling in November?
Yes, but Nostradartmus says only on the day you sell.

 

[cowgirl8]

It is hard to predict what is going to happen. But we saw this coming in 2011. The reason we hung on to as many cows as we could. We are considering keeping all our heifers this year. Breeding them in the spring and selling as bred heifers. Or heck, keeping them. Just depends on how much grazing we have. We usually play it by ear.

 

[greybeard]

It is hard to predict what is going to happen. But we saw this coming in 2011.

We're all so very happy you felt compelled to include those lines.

 

[Don McCallum]

Greybeard, I wish I had Cowgirl8's foresight. I would be a very rich man.

 

[greybeard]

So would I, but I wouldn't tout it at every opportunity.

 

[Tim/South]

Anyone think prices will fall around November? I'm taking 12 calves off.

I have always waited until the second week in December to sell the calves we did not sell before Labor Day. That is in a typical year and things are not typical right now.
November is the month of the turkey. I let that fad pass before selling.