Get READY for a "BIG TRAIN WRECK"??

[TLCfromARK]

Prices are good, I carried a few off last week.
515# Red heifer = $1.13
900# bred young cow = $.85
990# bred older cow = $.55

If the prices stayed up like this everybody would make money on cows.

;-)

 

[ollie]

Call me stupid but I think that were in for a train ride instead of a wreck. I am sure we will have ups and downs but I think these prices are here for a couple of years . Of course there could be the terrorist attack, barring that I think the atkins diet and the south beach diet coupled with the droughts in the north west has supply and demand where the producer needs them. I am naturally a pesimest so its against my nature but it seems logical to me.

 

[C & C Land & Catt]

Go Mortage your farm and go along for the ride!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Michelle Pankonien]

well here in Brazos and madison county Texas, where we are 40+ inches ahead in rain fall, and very thankful for a week of dry weather, we have seen ranches sell off entire herds due to the high prices and laugh all the way to the bank.

just last night I passed a few 32 foot stock trailers packed with mature cows headed for the sale barn, they are taking advantage of the semi dry weather to get em up and gone while they can

According to some really old farts that have been doing it for over 50 years, and making money at it, this is the time to let the pastures rest and capitalize on the high market, you can buy a bunch when prices go back down

What we have trouble with now is getting the hay cut and bailed between the flooding weather, the neighbor accross the street, had the front 20 acres cut, and it all rotted on the pasture, due to 10+ inches of rain that fell just after it was cut, now the new growth is ready to cut, and it is still to wet to get into the field

So will hay be cheap? Or scarce? We have been lucky, we tore up 50% of our production acres to recondition and replant, just lucky enough to have oodles of moisture to help it along, and it is knee deep in grass now, but too wet to cut, and hubby won't cut because he feels that it will help it survive if we ever do get into a dry summer. Cattle fat as ever, and that is a rare thing heading into July and August, just on grass, I like to have them at BCS 5 going into summer and they are at 6, it is hard on them to carry so much fat going into the heat of summer, but what can you do, they are just on grass

The problems I see for folks who still have cattle is that the forage available for winter will be poor to moderate in quality due to the fact that it was probably rained on, if not it has rain dammage from post harvest rainfall while stored

We still get cattle from mexico, so although Canada's borders are closed, there is still a huge influx of cattle from Mexico

I don't see a huge problem with BSE, I see the potential for a wreck HMD

Hoof and Mouth disease poses the greatest threat to our livestock market here in the US, and people are not being vigilant enough about watching out for it. There also seems to be a BVD epidemic building down here in the south, we have seen several instances where 3-5 cwt calves have just dropped dead out on commercial ranches, and nothing is being done about it , if left unchecked that will be a huge train wreck

 

[TheBullLady]

We are definately capitalizing on the prices. I can't see retaining heifers at these prices, and I raise registered cattle. I agree with most of the others above.. I can't image the prices can stay as high as they are.

As a previous poster mentioned.. sell them when they're high, and buy when they're low. We've sold off probably 40% of our herd in the past four or five months. So we're down to the "cream of the crop", and we have plenty of grass!

I feel for you in Canada! How very frustrating it must be to be in the cattle business right now!

 

[TexasCountryWoman]

Michelle, my ranch is between Bryan-College Station and Austin and I am am rejoicing the rain! We have had 29 inches already and our yearly average is about 33 inches. June was so wet, rain 20 days that month. Usually a dry month, so much grass, and I have unimproved pastures. My cattle are fat and my pastures are overgrown. I am in sand, not prairie, so we have no problems with mud. All tanks are full but now we have to start the "praying for a Hurricane" routine again.

I am building a herd, or would be selling more right now. I have a dern 15 month old bull yearling that won't load that i would love to get out of here. He is separated form the rest, but I could use the 75 acre patch he is in. I may have to hire some cowboys to fetch him, (dang Brahman blood in him!) He has done tore up my goat milking hands during our third and last attempt at loading him (I fractured something), and that was all for me. My ol' dad and I weren't gonna get killed over that one animal...besides my milking hands are priceless, they should be insured (ask anyone who milks twice a day!)

 

[MULDOON]

I've got Questions ,
I understand that were having very good cattle prices , and it seems like all of the advice is sell!!,sell!!,sell!!
Are most of these cattle that are being sold, going to slaughter , or are they just being churned back to people that are wanting to get into the cattle business because of the attractive profits,
What I'm Wondering is if I do hold on to my heifers will there be a demand
for them in the next couple of years?? Quen sabes??
:cboy:

 

[dun]

I've got Questions ,
I understand that were having very good cattle prices , and it seems like all of the advice is sell!!,sell!!,sell!!
Are most of these cattle that are being sold, going to slaughter , or are they just being churned back to people that are wanting to get into the cattle business because of the attractive profits,
What I'm Wondering is if I do hold on to my heifers will there be a demand
for them in the next couple of years?? Quen sabes??
:cboy:

The majority are going to feed lots and slaughter. Those heifers will be worth some money in a couple of years when the rebuild faze starts. That's the rebuild faze that has been predicted to being ready to start in the near future. That's the near future they've been saying is coming for the last 3-4 years. But, they probably won't be worth as much as they are to the slaughter market now.

dun

 

[MULDOON]

Thank You , :cboy: :cboy:

 

[TheBullLady]

Well said Dun!

I talked to a friend that's a cattle buyer last week, and he indicated heifers are high because the feeder buyers and the "restockers" are vying for them! That's always a good opportunity for a seller!

 

[ollie]

Any new predictions from you Carnack the magnificiants ? I hope this is the train wreck ya'll were predicting and it is about over and recovers and goes on up from here. A friend of mine shorted Nov. Feeders at 1.06. Had to take them another satchel full of money for margin call.

 

[ollie']

Same friend shorted them again this year but I think it's at 1.09. Could be octobers, I can't remember. It's been the best cattle cycle I have ever been part of . Any new predictions or revelations? Notice it's been a year since my last post and it was July of 2004 when the thread started. Not much has changed but the price of cattle. They're higher.

 

[Texan]

Let's see......fed cattle losing around $150? Partly because feeders paid too much for cattle going in. It won't take 'em long to get tired of playing that. The feeder giveth, the feeder taketh away.......

 

[ollie']

With some of the packers owning half the cattle in the feed lots and some of the packers owning the feed lots , do you think they are really losing 150 dollars or is it just small potato folks like me that lose? I'm not saying it's going to stay up but if you'll notice frankie's post, she was saying something like that 2 years ago.

 

[Texan]

Weather has sure had a big part in stretching this one out, no denying that. It's lasted much longer than I thought it would. But those of us that prepared for the worst two years ago have been doing pretty good---while the eternal optimists have a lot of high priced brood cows that are just about to start having cheaper babies. If they haven't already started having cheaper ones with this Spring's calf crop.

The good thing about those of us that stay prepared for the worst is that we really rake it in when we're wrong. :lol:

 

[ollie']

Weather has sure had a big part in stretching this one out, no denying that. It's lasted much longer than I thought it would. But those of us that prepared for the worst two years ago have been doing pretty good---while the eternal optimists have a lot of high priced brood cows that are just about to start having cheaper babies. If they haven't already started having cheaper ones with this Spring's calf crop.

The good thing about those of us that stay prepared for the worst is that we really rake it in when we're wrong. :lol:

:lol: I hear you. I didn't buy any cows then and have sold some since then so I guess I agree with you. In reality though 1200 dollar pairs bought in July 04 going into a herd of cattle that were breakeven or better and if the extra grazing was there, would have been easily paid for by now and would have actually helped (me) in the down turn when it comes. Give me a prediction Texan, I say it's good for another year anyway, maybe two. It could get cheaper but I don't see a bottoming out till 2010. What say you?

 

[Beefy]

i say thats optimistic.

 

[Tod Dague]

Ollie you hang on longer than a pit bull on a thief's behind. :lol:
That said I think we have a couple more years of good calf prices as long as we don't get hammered by new imports (I'm not talking about Canada). The cow prices will fluctuate regionally depending on weather.

If we are sitting on a over priced bubble I would rather see some small corrections now then a bust down the road.

 

[BC]

Drought is going to change this cycle again. Here in East Texas, we have reduced herds last year when it was dry and some are starting to talk about again this year. South Texas is in really bad shape. They have sold the old cows and are now selling the 3 to 5 year olds. Sale at Three Rivers had over 50 head down two weeks ago from just being poor.

Calf crop percentage is lower in my area due to cows being late in breeding back last year, It was dry from Texas up through Oklhoma and Arkansas into Missouri. More than 1/3 of the nations cow herd come from those 4 states.

 

[ollie']

i say thats optimistic.

What say you Beefy? Put a time table on it. If I'm going to look stupid, I don't want to feel lonely at the same time.