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feeder futures

kenny thomas

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Dun, jogeephus, herfordsire, someone who is smarter than me, which is almost everyone, what is going on with feeder futures and will it last? Up a lot in the last two days. Is this a sign of better times?
 

1982vett

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Sounds good if it lasts. Cow prices were $5-$10 stronger at the local sale today.

Could be Fed funds rate cut yesterday. Could be credit markets loosening. Could be holiday sale closings. Could be lower grain and fuel cost working their way thru the system. I also hear fertilizer prices (urea in particular) are falling. Maybe things are getting better. Now if we could get it to rain.
 

Jogeephus

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Since I got some ready to sell now, I seriously doubt prices will go up much until after I sell them. This seems to be the case with everything I do. If only I could learn how to do a "shouldhave" I'd be rich. I sure hope it turns though. I imagine the credit problem has a lot to do with it though. Any improvement here is bound to help.
 

john250

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Jogeephus":1eak4oet said:
Since I got some ready to sell now, I seriously doubt prices will go up much until after I sell them. This seems to be the case with everything I do. If only I could learn how to do a "shouldhave" I'd be rich. I sure hope it turns though. I imagine the credit problem has a lot to do with it though. Any improvement here is bound to help.

I hope you'll post when you sell. "Sell a week after Jogeephus" seems as good as the marketing plan I have now. :nod:
 

Stocker Steve

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kenny thomas":2t2moiir said:
what is going on with feeder futures and will it last? Up a lot in the last two days. Is this a sign of better times?

Some of the recent declines in asset prices are based on emotion.
The Fed is trying to prop up the latest bubble by cutting interest rates to almost zero - - so everyone will buy at least one house, if not two or three.
These rate cuts also reduce the value of the dollar (making imports more expensive), and motivates the stock and commodity investors (driving up futures).
The optimists think things will bottom out by mid 2009. The doomsters claim all this *#@ Washington stuff is an effort to make our officials appear relevant, but all these bailouts and packages and buy outs will only slow down and drag out the decline in asset value for years and years.
 

grannysoo

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Stocker Steve":3unc598g said:
but all these bailouts and packages and buy outs will only slow down and drag out the decline in asset value for years and years.

Us, our kids, grandkids, and generations to come will be paying for the corruption and theft that has been going on in government.
 

larryshoat

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kenney, I sure as heck ain't smarter than you ( or anybody else for that matter) . I do think we may be close to the bottom on fats and feeders, unless the economy get's a lot worse yet . That's my opinion, which is not worth the time it took to type it . I've got 4 or 5 loads of fats that for the summer months that I have not priced, like Jogee, I figure whatever I do it will be wrong .

Larry
 

kenny thomas

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If I had fats I would worry myself to death trying to make the decision as to when to sell and at what price. Hasn't there been a 20 cent change down over the last few months? I would make the wrong decision and loose everything.
 

john250

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It seems to me there is a huge upside in fats. I may be hauled off to the poorhouse saying that, but cattle are a very long range proposition, and fats haven't been to the party yet. Everything comes around at some point.
 

Stocker Steve

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Light calf prices bottomed here in November. Hindsight is 20/20. Black 3 wt steers were in the mid 90s, so there was very little roll back or negative margin. Since then folks have laid in wet corn or DDG and calf prices have gone up 10 to 15 cents.

Heavy heifers are still cheap. Nice 7 wts. are in the mid 70s. I would buy a bunch of them to keep the bull company but cows are even cheaper.
 

Stocker Steve

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From the Daily Reckoning:

There are really only two ways out of this mess – up or down. People owe too much money...and they’ve invested in too many things that aren’t worth what they paid for them. There’s no easy way out. Mistakes are mistakes; somebody’s got to pay for them. Either the people who made the mistakes...or people who didn’t.

The feds can just butt out...and let the market take care of itself. That will mean HIGHER real returns on capital. Real money will be scarce. People will pay for their own mistakes – dearly. Savers will be rewarded with higher yields. They will save more. Prices will fall. The economy will go through a tough, but relatively quick, reorganization. Debts will be written off or paid off...or worked off. Investors will lose money...business and consumers too. It will be long and hard, but gradually balance sheets will be strengthened...and the economy will be re-capitalized with savings. Still, many people will go broke. And riots will break out ...as the lumpen malcontents take to the streets demanding that their government ‘do something.’

Of course, there is nothing the government can do...but cause more mischief. That’s the low road – the road the feds have taken...by cutting interest rates to zero and spending trillions of dollars they don’t have. It’s the low road they’ve been on for many years...it’s where they feel most comfortable...and where they can do most damage. Instead of recapitalizing the economy by favoring savers, the feds are continuing the process of de-capitalizing it. Yields go down, not up. Savers get discouraged...and ripped off. Money becomes cheaper and cheaper...eventually reducing the debt load via inflation. Reckless spenders’ debts are erased. Mortgages are wiped away. Speculators make money on wild bets. Debtors come out way ahead – including the biggest debtor of all – the US federal government,

Meanwhile innocent savers, ordinary householders, taxpayers, foreign creditors, unborn children – all pay the price...
 
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